Friday, October 22, 2010

Who will vote this year?

Who will vote in 2010?
Who's Going to Vote This Year?

Confused by the widely varying polls this year. Here’s a pretty good article explaining some of the technique and problems pollsters have.

The most difficult job a pollster has is trying to figure out who the actual voters are going to be in a given election year. This is easier said than done, because we know that (a) almost all survey participants say they will vote in the midterm election and (b) historically, only about 40 percent will.

Pollsters do their best to solve this problem by screening out those who are unlikely to vote using a question or series of questions probing interest in the election and/or prior voting behavior. These techniques vary widely from pollster to pollster. Some pollsters use especially "loose" voter screens: asking only, for example, if someone is certain to vote, without probing any deeper.

Ohio Democrat Threatens Pro-Life Leader with Jail

Here’s was desperation looks like.

Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) got himself into deep water when he took a principled stand to defend life earlier this year -- then buckled to his pro-abortion leadership to vote in favor of passing Obamacare.

The legislation passed by Democrats allows the use of taxpayer dollars to fund abortion on demand through government-run insurance plans.


“Ironically, ours is the position that so-called ‘pro-life’ Democrats themselves held before they changed their minds. It is also the position held by the National Right to Life Committee, Americans United for Life, United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, Ohio Right to Life and numerous other organizations and policy experts,” Dannenfelser said.

SBA List sought to purchase four billboards across Driehaus’ Congressional district informing voters that his vote in favor of Obamacare was a vote for taxpayer funding of abortion. Driehaus filed a complaint with the Ohio Elections Commission on Tuesday, October 6th alleging the SBA List was making false accusations, citing a criminal statute in the complaint.

White House's Valerie Jarrett Drops "Foreign Money" Accusation

It appears the brouhaha over foreign money and the Chamber of Commerce is over. As one more attempt by the Democrats to smear the Republicans has failed, Valeria Jarrett is now talking about transparency rather than illegal activities.

Over the past several weeks numerous members of the Obama administration and various Democrats have claimed groups such as the Chamber of Commerce and GOP advocacy campaigns, such as Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS have taken "foreign money."

However, on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett did not accuse these groups of taking foreign money. Instead, she claimed President Obama has been an "advocate for disclosure and transparency in campaign finance."

How low will he go? Obama approval hits yet another bottom and 54% now say, 'No second term'

It's too late to back out now because President Obama is already racking up frequent flier miles on his Western campaign swing, allegedly to help out embattled Democratic senators.

But a new Gallup Poll out this morning puts the top Democrat himself at his lowest approval rating ever and finds most Americans do not want the Real Good Talker to have a second term....

The new survey reveals that the more Americans get to know this guy, the less they like him. His ...

... approval rating has gone down every single quarter since that sunny promising inauguration on Jan. 20, 2009.

For the third quarter of 2010, the seventh of his presidency, Obama's approval fell 2 more points, from 47.3% to 44.7%. These results are based on daily tracking polls involving some 90,000 Americans.

His highest favorable rating was just before he took office, 78%. Since then it's been a plummet of 31 points.

According to Gallup's results, 39% of Americans now believe Obama deserves a second term.

Can Democrats Pull Off a 'Dewey Defeats Truman' Feat? Not Likely, Polls Say

The Dewey fiasco is something the Democrats can only dream of. In fact, even as some races have tightened, they have tightened against democrats as much as they have against Republicans. In the RCP Battle for the House, the Democrats have seen one more seat switched from lean Democrat to Toss Up. So with 42 toss ups the Republicans need to win 4 to gain control while the Democrats need to win 39 to keep control.

Facing grim news in one major national poll after another, some Democrats may be hoping for a "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment. That was the headline in 150,000 copies of the Chicago Daily Tribune on election night in 1948 after a campaign in which a series of polls showed New York's Republican governor, Tom Dewey, way ahead of incumbent President Harry Truman.

Now, the Pew Research Center joins the queue of major surveys showing the Republicans headed for a big day on Nov. 2. While the unexpected could happen in a year of surprises, it is a lot less likely that today's pollsters are repeating the mistake that Gallup made 62 years ago when it quit doing surveys two weeks before the election even though 14 percent of voters were still undecided.
The Pew poll, conducted Oct. 13-18, has Republicans leading on the generic congressional ballot by 50 percent to 40 percent. In September's survey, the lead had been 50 percent to 43 percent

Update:  And speaking of "Dewey beats Truman" it seems AP on said as of 10/21 Democrats had a BIG turnout in early voting in Maryland.  The problem is, early voting in Maryland didn't start until today.

Here is an interesting question that I have for the Associated Press. The AP has a story from October 21 that features the news that Democrats in Maryland are turning out in bigger numbers for early voting than Republicans. But according to the Maryland State Board of Elections, early voting in the Old Line State isn’t supposed to start until October 22.

How the GOP was saved from Bush and the establishment.

Peggy Noonan comes through explaining how the Republicans have risen from the dead and why the Democrats refuse to see it.

Two central facts give shape to the historic 2010 election. The first is not understood by Republicans, and the second not admitted by Democrats.

The first: the tea party is not a "threat" to the Republican Party; the tea party saved the Republican Party. In a broad sense, the tea party rescued it from being the fat, unhappy, querulous creature it had become, a party that didn't remember anymore why it existed, or what its historical purpose was. The tea party, with its energy and earnestness, restored the GOP to itself. ….

Because of this, because they did not go third-party, Nov. 2 is not going to be a disaster for the Republicans, but a triumph.

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