Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Tonight we will know

Which will the country choose?
An Election Guide

The outcome in nearly three-quarters of the states, plus the District of Columbia, is almost certain.  Unless something truly unforeseen happens, Mitt Romney will win in 23 of those states (including Texas), while Obama will win in 14 (including California, New York, and Illinois) plus Washington, D.C.  Through those 37 states and D.C., the electoral vote will almost surely be as follows: Romney 190, Obama 183.

This is a nice breakdown of what each candidate must have as the returns come in.  

CNN’s Last Poll

“Among those likely voters, 41 percent describe themselves as Democrats, 29 percent describe themselves as Independents and 30 percent describe themselves as Republicans….

Rasmussen projects that 39 percent of voters will be Democrats and 37 percent Republicans, leaving 24 percent Independent.

Let’s apply Rasmussen’s voting percentages to CNN’s polling results assuming 1,000 voters made up of 390 Democrats, 240 Independents and 370 Republicans. Voting for President Obama, we would have 363 Democrats (93 percent of 390), 89 Independents (37 percent of 240), and 4 Republicans (1 percent of 370), for a total of 456 votes. Voting for Gov. Romney, we would have 366 Republicans (99 percent of 370), 134 Independents (56 percent of 240), and 20 Democrats (5 percent of 390) for a total of 520 votes. So, President Obama would get 46 percent of the vote and Governor Romney would get 52 percent, again, a huge Romney victory.

This CNN poll is truly great news for Republicans unless you believe that Democrats will vote 11 percent more than Republican this year and very few people do 

The November Surprise

Rasmussen revealed that for the month of October, its data showed that among likely voters, the electorate is 39 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic

This comes from a survey of 15,000 people taken over the course of a month. Yes, 15,000 people —15 times the number in a statistically significant poll. 

This number might be discounted, since Rasmussen has a reputation as leaning Republican. Except that last week, Gallup — the oldest and most reputable national pollster — released its party ID survey of 9,424 likely voters. And it came out 36 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat.
This means two firms, with huge numbers of likely voters in their surveys, are finding on election eve that there are more Republican than Democratic voters.

If the numbers come out with more Republicans than Democrats, Romney wins.  If it comes out with Rasmussen’s numbers it’s a landslide.

When all else fails, lie

“We tried our ideas. They worked. The economy grew. We created jobs. Deficits went down. We tried their ideas. They didn't work. The economy didn't grow, not as many jobs, and the deficit went up.”  Barack Obama 11/5/2012

You have to have no shame to make this kind of a statement.   

The final Presidential Debate

It was last night, but didn’t include either Obama or Romney.

Obamacare: Unintended Consequences

Several restaurants, hotels and retailers have started or are preparing to limit schedules of hourly workers to below 30 hours a week. That is the threshold at which large employers in 2014 would have to offer workers a minimum level of insurance or pay a penalty starting at $2,000 for each worker. . . .

Peggy Noonan:  It’s Romney

There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same. 

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

Bob Dylan says it Obama in a landslide

Dylan says, "Don't believe the media. I think it's going to be a landslide."

I agree not to believe the media and that it will be a landslide, but it will by a Romney landslide.  

The Obama voter

It seems to me that many left-wingers confuse good intentions with good outcomes and mistake the feeling of virtue for virtue itself. I hear them say things like, “Well, at least Obama cares,” as if the presidency were not an important job that could be done well or badly. Would they choose to be operated on by a surgeon because he cares or would they prefer one who knew what he was doing and could get the job done? They praise programs for their intent without considering their outcomes or costs. They do not weigh their liberty in the balance of their reason. At their worst, they cherish a sense of themselves as good and generous because they vote for the people who tell them they are good and generous, and hold as hateful those who will not join in praising the emperor’s new clothes.

This is the problem.  The law of unintended consequences never seems to sink in to the liberal brain. 

A good sign?

Howard Dean is claiming voter suppression adding that the only way Obama can lose this is if his voters are kept away from the polls.  This may be a good sign that the excuses have started already, or it may be just the ramblings of a paranoid old pol. 

Obama the cold fish

Personal relationships with much of Washington - Obama is frighteningly weak. Last week, I asked a member of the Senate if he knows of anyone who really knows Obama.  He said he does not. Washington is thick with stories about Obama's insularity and distance. We hear how he does not listen to criticism - he sometimes just walks out of the room...

Politico and Media Matters go after one another.

It appears the “kids” are jockeying for position as the Obama Administration’smouthpiece.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Election Day 2012

Signs that Romney will win and it won’t be close

There is not one person who voted for John McCain last time who will switch and vote for Obama this time.  There are many previous Obama supporters who plan to vote for Romney.  Republicans who stayed home four years ago rather than vote for McCain are not going to stay home againMany will vote not because of Romney, but in spite of Romney.  They want no more of Obama and his policies.

Crowd comparisons between Romney and Obama reveal Obama as a fad whose time has passed.  There is energy and enthusiasm in the Romney campaign.  There is anger and pettiness in the Obama campaign.

Early voting suggests a tsunami for Romney, at least when compared to the corresponding numbers four years ago.  Women are breaking for Romney.  States that were never thought to be in play by pollsters suddenly look even or even trending toward Romney.  Pennsylvania and Michigan are two examples.  Nothing is moving toward Obama.  Everything is moving away.
Newspaper endorsements reflect the mood of their readers.  The Des Moines Register endorsed Romney.  Ditto the NY Daily News and many other papers who routinely endorse Democrats.  Ben Shapiro reports:

According to the University of California, Santa Barbara American Presidency Project study of the top 100 newspaper editorial endorsements, Mitt Romney has seen a vast wave of switches from 2008 Obama endorsers. Obama, meanwhile, has seen only one newspaper that endorsed John McCain come around to endorse him. At the same time, many newspapers have also switched from Obama to "no endorsement."

There is not one constituency group that reasonably can be seen increasing its support for Obama.  Hardcore Democrat groups are uninspired.  Turnout among them will be lower.  Obama will win these groups by overwhelming majorities, but the groups will be much smaller this time around.
Doug Ross presented some interesting results that support my contentions.  A survey commissioned by the Washington Post is the source of these numbers.  Mr. Ross's summary included the following (my emphasis):

Overall, the Post-ABC poll found that 13 percent of 2008 Obama voters have decided to back Mitt Romney.

Even absurdly-skewed Poll show Romney tied

The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both.

Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.

Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41%described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans." 

+11 D’s still only get Obama a tie. 

More reasons to be bullish

Why do I think this when the polls continue to forecast a close race? Two reasons. First, because the air long ago went out of the Obama campaign. “But where,” you ask, “is the data for that? What do the numbers say?” I have no doubt that data could be assembled and expressed numerically. But asking for data about the state of the Obama campaign is like asking for proof that a body lying on the sidewalk with a stake through its heart is dead.  Evidence comes in many forms, and some of the most compelling forms are bluntly empirical.  (A point that Aristotle noted in the Nicomachean Ethics when he noted that different subjects admit different levels of precision and that it is a sign of wisdom to demand only the level of precision which the subject under discussions requires.) Do you know anyone who believes the Obama campaign has traction?  You don’t need a statistic to issue a death certificate.

The second reason I predict a handy victory for Romney-Ryan ticket is likewise rudely empirical.  Look at the rallies. Note the number of “Romney-Ryan” signs, buttons, and insignia you see around — and note, too, who’s sporting that paraphernalia.

Free Springsteen concert and Obama pull in 18,000

One of the more memorable "gulp" moments for Republicans in '04 was the Friday before Election Day when John Kerry and Bruce Springsteen brought together a massive crowd of 70,000 to 80,000 in the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin

Today, in a last minute push to get the vote out, the combined power of Barack and the Boss drew only 18,000. 

Democrats are already worried about the early vote counts in Wisconsin. The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more.  On his own, Springsteen can attract 84,000 paying customers just a few hours away in Chicago.

Does this suggest John Kerry can pull in 52,000 more people than Barack Obama can? 

Does this look like an ad of a winner?

A New York Conservative tells you why you should vote

Voting is an honor.  It is a gift.  It may not be a duty, or a responsibility to vote, but it certainly is an opportunity to be counted, to have one's say, to make one's feelings known -- to stand up against the liberal dream of silencing all dissent.

The fact of the matter is that every vote counts.  It is a message sent to those who refuse to hear our voices, because they believe we don't matter -- unless, of course, we agree with them.

Beyond the polls:  Another way to predict the election

A rather obscure university model has proven to be far more reliable than public polling -- or pretty much any other model. Developed by two University of Colorado (CU) political science professors, Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, this analysis method has proven amazingly accurate at correctly projecting Electoral College results on a state-by-state basis covering an amazing 30 years and eight presidential elections.

Their most recent analysis, released October 4th, projects that Romney will receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes (five votes more than their August prediction). President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes; well short of the 270 needed to retain the presidency.

Amazon picks the winner

It seems more people are reading conservative books than liberal books by a 59-41 margin. 

NY Times: Obama Beat Hoover!

You know your record as President is abysmal when supporters are reduced to touting how much better you’ve done than Herbert Hoover. But that’s where Obama is at, apparently, as historian Robert McElvaine took to the New York Times a few days ago to make exactly that case. Seeking to combat unfavorable comparisons to the pace of recovery under Obama with that of other Presidents, such as Reagan or Clinton, McElvaine dismissed them all us irrelevant and asserted that the only comparison that matters is between Obama and Hoover. And on that measure, we are told that Obama passes with flying colors!

Union Leader endorses Romney

Only Mitt Romney offers a way out of this destructive cycle

It’s up to you

The election is here and you will make the difference.

MSM has dropped the pretense and openly supports Obama

Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Final Days

Measuring Enthusiasm in the final days 

Steve Wonder concert for Obama comes up short
Legendary performer Stevie Wonder this morning expressed his love for Cleveland during a get-out-the-vote rally at Cleveland State University.
His love went largely unrequited.

Fewer than 200 people showed up towatch Wonder perform a handful of his hits at the early voting event in support of President Barack Obama.

Cleveland sees 5% of turnout for Obama’s last visit to Cleveland vs 2008


Last night, in the cold and with long lines, 30,000 people showed up in Ohio to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. That same day, Obama attracted a meager 2,800. But enthusiasm for President FailureTeleprompter can be judged by more than comparisons with Romney. In 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland, a Democrat stronghold, Obama attracted 80,000. This morning, at his last 2012 stop in that same city, Obama could only attract 4,000.

Team Obama will spin, as they have throughout the campaign, and tell their stenographers in the Corrupt Media that they've intentionally chosen smaller, more personal venues. But does anyone honestly believe that if President WaterParter could attract crowds even half as large as the ones we saw in 2008, he wouldn't? 
Besides, even if that was the case, in that exact same Cleveland venue, according to the RNC,  McCainwas able to attract a bigger crowd in 2008 than Obama did yesterday. Yes, that's correct, Obama's attracting crowds smaller than John McCain did in 2008 but the polls are telling us he's going to best or beat his D+5 2008 turnout advantage.

Wisconsin comes out for Romney

Friday morning Governor Mitt Romney held a rally at the county fairgrounds. Despite the frosty temperatures, over 1500 people who could not get in attended the “overflow rally” outside the event.

The energy was enthusiastic and upbeat for Romney supporters. Female voters spoke to me about the most important issues to them this coming Tuesday. The overwhelming response was jobs, the economy, and a better future for their children and grandchildren.

Colorado’s last Romney event:  18,000 enthusiastic supporters

This is one I was at.  We arrived 3 ½ hours before the event to long lines.  The crowd was made up of voters of all ages and we all pumped up despite the cold weather.  It was fun to talk with the people near us.  They all were “broken glass” voters, that is, they would be willing to crawl over broken glass to vote for Mitt Romney in this election.  And the enthusiasm is for Romney.  Mitt closed comparing Obama’s call for “revenge” vs his call for “love of country.”  The crowd went wild.  

In the meantime, the Obama team struggles to explain the revenge remark.  

Six Reasons to be optimistic in the final days of election 2012

Here’s one I hadn’t heard before:

The Washington Post has updated its Congressional projections, now calling for House Republicans to roughly maintain their current majority margin in the next Congress -- if not expand on it.  Ed Morrissey makes a good point: If it took an evenly-split electorate (in terms of party ID) to build the 2010 red wave that swept Republicans back into a substantial House majority, how could they possibly hold or enlarge their advantage if 2012's electorate will besignificantly more Democratic, as many pollster are assuming?

This is a very good point.  It’s like predicting a famine when other predictions show bumper crops. 

Another reason to be optimistic:  Desperate religious ad

Socialism disguised as religious faith. 

Desperate ad or simply imbecilic ad—you be the judge

A vote for Barack Obama is a vote for a vagina???? 

New York Daily News endorses…. Romney

“Four years ago, the Daily News endorsed Obama, seeing a historic figure whose intelligence, political skills and empathy with common folk positioned him to build on the small practical experience he would bring to the world’s toughest job. We valued Obama’s pledge to govern with bold pragmatism and bipartisanship. The hopes of those days went unfulfilled. . . . The regrettable truth is that Obama built a record of miscalculations and missed opportunities.”

Obama Administration admits cannibalizing likely voters

Obama’s early voting strategy is to get less likely voters to vote early, but it appears their efforts may have cannibalized likely voters in early voting. 

Gallup expects +3 Republicans in this election

This will explain a lot of things on Wednesday such as how could the polls have been so wrong?   Most of the polls have +5 to +9 Democrats. 

Minnesota moves into toss up category

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are separated by just 1 point in Minnesota, effectively making the race there a toss-up, according to polling taken for the conservative American Future Fund.

Romney takes 46 percent of the vote to Obama's 45 percent in the poll, which was conducted by the GOP firm NMB Research and shared with POLITICO. The Republican presidential nominee is up 13 points among independents, ahead of Obama 49 percent to 36 percent.

Pennsylvania is in-play also

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

If they are really tied at 47, Pennsylvania should go for Romney.  The undecided will go for Romney.

Michigan: Romney and Obama tied

Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election - Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%

Tied this late probably means this will go to Romney.

Axelrod:  Romney is going to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota because they are in deep trouble

David Axelrod, a senior adviser to President Barack Obama's reelection campaign, dismissed on Sunday the notion that Mitt Romney is making Pennsylvania competitive as the GOP presidential nominee heads there later in the day. 

"They understand that they're in deep trouble," Axelrod said on "Fox News Sunday." "They've tried to expand the map because they know in states like Ohio… they're behind and they're not catching up at this point."

Reminds me of when I was a kid.  I was fighting with my younger brother and had my hands around his throat.  My mother came and pulled me off him.  He looked at me and said, “It’s a good thing mom saved you.” 

Thomas Peterffly’s YouTube Ad

If you grow up in a socialist country you tend to be a very good Americans and conservative.

Who will Navy Seals vote for?

NAACP takes over polling station

Yesterday a group of NAACP personal came into a polling station in Houston Texas and proceeded to break election law.  They gave out free water and moved people from the back to the front of the line as they saw fit.  

Green energy: 

Wind farm noise causes clear and significant” damage to people’s sleep and mental health, according to the first full peer-reviewed scientific study of the problem.