Friday, October 29, 2010

Polling in the final days

Shock poll: Americans think Bush doing a better job than Obama (and more)

Despite voters feelings toward Obama personally, 56% say he does not deserve to be reelected, while 38% say he does deserve to be reelected President.

– 43% say that Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, while 48% SAY BUSH WAS A BETTER PRESIDENT THAN OBAMA HAS BEEN.

Just in time for Bush’s new book and the election. Bummer if you are a Democrat.

How accurate are the Polls?
It’s all about your Likely Voter profile. Here’s an article looking at the Likely Voter profile for the Senate races.
Such examples abound. IN COLORADO, THE MOST RECENT POLLS SUGGEST THAT THE DEMOCRATS WILL ENJOY A 1-POINT ADVANTAGE IN TURNOUT, just like in 2008. And these polls say that only 29 percent of Colorado voters this time around will be independents, even though 39 percent of Colorado voters were independents in 2008, and even though that percentage, by all accounts, is growing.

The expectation that Democrats will come anywhere close to matching their 2008 turnout, while independent turnout will suffer, is not rooted in reality. In truth, turnout should look very much like it did in 2004, except that independents will make up a higher percentage of the voters.

Fortunately, many of the polls show each candidate’s level of support by party. So we can see, for example, that the latest CNN/Time poll for Colorado shows Republican challenger Ken Buck with 89 percent support among Republicans, to 6 percent for Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet; 6 percent support among Democrats, to Bennet’s 90; and 49 percent support among independents, to Bennet’s 36. Using the projected turnout figures explained herein (and more or less mirroring 2004), these tallies WOULD MEAN AN 11-POINT LEAD FOR BUCK. Because of its radically different turnout projections, CNN/Time calls it a 1-point lead for Buck.

Effect of the Polls
Polls are important not only for what they tell us, but how they affect us. In this story it talks about some of the issues and what it means for the candidates.
WASHINGTON – When a widely publicized poll showed Republican John Kasich with a commanding, 10-point advantage in Ohio's governor's race, aides to Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland fought back hard. Against the poll.

"With just two weeks until Election Day, it is our opinion that the Quinnipiac polls are irresponsible, inaccurate and completely removed from the reality of the Ohio governor's race," the campaign said in a statement that noted other private and public surveys were showing a much closer contest.

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, an organization with an unchallenged reputation for nonpartisanship, responded mildly. "We stand by our numbers and our overall record for reliability," said Doug Schwartz, the organization's polling director…..

"THEY CAN AFFECT CONTRIBUTIONS. They do affect news coverage in a substantial way. They can affect volunteers. They can affect (voter) interest, and through all those things can affect the outcome" of a race said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster not involved in the Ohio governor's contest.;_ylt=AtMLbyP7Zx86GBgpJiZlq22s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNtdGlsYmMzBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAxMDI5L3VzX3BvbGxzX2dvbmVfd2lsZARjY29kZQNtb3N0cG9wdWxhcgRjcG9zAzUEcG9zAzIEcHQDaG9tZV9jb2tlBHNlYwN5bl9oZWFkbGluZV9saXN0BHNsawNwb2xsc2dvbmV3aWw

Update of RCP House Race

In the past three days the race for the House has seen 15 changes.  Of those 10 have gone toward the Republicans and 5 toward the Democrats.  The current numbers have the Republicans at 222, the Democrats at 173 with 40 toss ups.  This would give the Republicans between 43 and 83 pick ups for an average of 63.

Krauthammer on the 2010 Midterms
Krauthammer zeros in on the real issue of this election. Is it that “it is the economy stupid,” or is it something more?
This from a president who won't even use "enemies" to describe an Iranian regime that is helping kill U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. This from a man who rose to prominence thunderously declaring that we were not blue states or red states, not black America or white America or Latino America - but the United States of America.

This is how the great post-partisan, post-racial, New Politics presidency ends - not with a bang, not with a whimper, but with a DESPERATE ELECTION-EVE PLEA FOR ETHNIC RETRIBUTION……

this is a deeply serious campaign about a profoundly serious political question…..

He wants to be a consequential president on the order of Ronald Reagan. His forthright attempt to undo the Reagan revolution with a burst of EXPANSIVE LIBERAL GOVERNANCE IS THE THEME ANIMATING THIS ENTIRE ELECTION.

Democratic apologists would prefer to pretend otherwise - that it's all about the economy and the electorate's anger over its parlous condition. Nice try. The most recent CBS/New York Times poll shows that only one in 12 Americans blames the economy on Obama, and seven in 10 think the downturn is temporary. And yet, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS FALLING APART. Democrats are four points behind among women, a constituency Democrats had owned for decades; a staggering 20 points behind among independents (a 28-point swing since 2008); and 20 points behind among college graduates, giving lie to the ubiquitous liberal conceit that the Republican surge is the revenge of lumpen know-nothings.

We have to pass the bill to find out what’s in it
This is an important and thought provoking column
For all its sweeping and scary provisions, ObamaCare is NOT NEARLY AS IMPORTANT AS THE WAY IT WAS PASSED. If legislation can become laws passed without either the public or the Congress knowing what is in those laws, THEN THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF A FREE, SELF-GOVERNING PEOPLE IS COMPLETELY UNDERMINED.

Some members of Congress who voted for ObamaCare, and who are now telling us that they realize this legislation has flaws which they intend to correct, are missing the point…..

Rushing ObamaCare into law too fast for anyone to have read it served no other purpose than to prevent this very process from taking place. THE RUSH TO PASS THIS LAW THAT WOULD NOT TAKE EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE NEXT TWO ELECTIONS SIMPLY CUT THE VOTERS OUT OF THE LOOP-- AND THAT IS PAINFULLY CLOSE TO RULING BY DECREE.

This is what this administration intends on doing, that is, to rule by decree. With the takeover of the congress by the Republicans, watch for the Obama Administration to use bureaucratic rules to “rule.”


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