Who will vote this year?

Who will vote in 2010?

Who's Going to Vote This Year?


Confused by the widely varying polls this year. Here’s a pretty good article explaining some of the technique and problems pollsters have.

The most difficult job a pollster has is trying to figure out who the actual voters are going to be in a given election year. This is easier said than done, because we know that (a) almost all survey participants say they will vote in the midterm election and (b) historically, only about 40 percent will.


Pollsters do their best to solve this problem by screening out those who are unlikely to vote using a question or series of questions probing interest in the election and/or prior voting behavior. These techniques vary widely from pollster to pollster. Some pollsters use especially "loose" voter screens: asking only, for example, if someone is certain to vote, without probing any deeper.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/10/22/whos_going_to_vote_this_year_107686.html


Ohio Democrat Threatens Pro-Life Leader with Jail

Here’s was desperation looks like.

Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) got himself into deep water when he took a principled stand to defend life earlier this year -- then buckled to his pro-abortion leadership to vote in favor of passing Obamacare.


The legislation passed by Democrats allows the use of taxpayer dollars to fund abortion on demand through government-run insurance plans.


Marjorie Dannenfelser, President of the Susan B. Anthony List (SBA List), IS BEING THREATENED WITH POSSIBLE JAIL TIME FOR INFORMING VOTERS THAT DRIEHAUS VOTED IN FAVOR OF TAXPAYER-FUNDED ABORTION with his vote for Obamacare.

“Ironically, ours is the position that so-called ‘pro-life’ Democrats themselves held before they changed their minds. It is also the position held by the National Right to Life Committee, Americans United for Life, United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, Ohio Right to Life and numerous other organizations and policy experts,” Dannenfelser said.


SBA List sought to purchase four billboards across Driehaus’ Congressional district informing voters that his vote in favor of Obamacare was a vote for taxpayer funding of abortion. Driehaus filed a complaint with the Ohio Elections Commission on Tuesday, October 6th alleging the SBA List was making false accusations, citing a criminal statute in the complaint.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=39498&page=1



White House's Valerie Jarrett Drops "Foreign Money" Accusation

It appears the brouhaha over foreign money and the Chamber of Commerce is over. As one more attempt by the Democrats to smear the Republicans has failed, Valeria Jarrett is now talking about transparency rather than illegal activities.

Over the past several weeks numerous members of the Obama administration and various Democrats have claimed groups such as the Chamber of Commerce and GOP advocacy campaigns, such as Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS have taken "foreign money."

However, on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett did not accuse these groups of taking foreign money. Instead, she claimed President Obama has been an "advocate for disclosure and transparency in campaign finance."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/21/white_houses_valerie_jarrett_drops_foreign_money_accusation.html


How low will he go? Obama approval hits yet another bottom and 54% now say, 'No second term'

It's too late to back out now because President Obama is already racking up frequent flier miles on his Western campaign swing, allegedly to help out embattled Democratic senators.


But a new Gallup Poll out this morning puts the top Democrat himself at his lowest approval rating ever and finds most Americans do not want the Real Good Talker to have a second term....


The new survey reveals that the more Americans get to know this guy, the less they like him. His ...


... approval rating has gone down every single quarter since that sunny promising inauguration on Jan. 20, 2009.


For the third quarter of 2010, the seventh of his presidency, Obama's approval fell 2 more points, from 47.3% to 44.7%. These results are based on daily tracking polls involving some 90,000 Americans.


His highest favorable rating was just before he took office, 78%. Since then it's been a plummet of 31 points.


According to Gallup's results, 39% of Americans now believe Obama deserves a second term.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/10/obama-approval-record-low.html


Can Democrats Pull Off a 'Dewey Defeats Truman' Feat? Not Likely, Polls Say

The Dewey fiasco is something the Democrats can only dream of. In fact, even as some races have tightened, they have tightened against democrats as much as they have against Republicans. In the RCP Battle for the House, the Democrats have seen one more seat switched from lean Democrat to Toss Up. So with 42 toss ups the Republicans need to win 4 to gain control while the Democrats need to win 39 to keep control.

Facing grim news in one major national poll after another, some Democrats may be hoping for a "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment. That was the headline in 150,000 copies of the Chicago Daily Tribune on election night in 1948 after a campaign in which a series of polls showed New York's Republican governor, Tom Dewey, way ahead of incumbent President Harry Truman.

Now, the Pew Research Center joins the queue of major surveys showing the Republicans headed for a big day on Nov. 2. While the unexpected could happen in a year of surprises, it is a lot less likely that today's pollsters are repeating the mistake that Gallup made 62 years ago when it quit doing surveys two weeks before the election even though 14 percent of voters were still undecided.
The Pew poll, conducted Oct. 13-18, has Republicans leading on the generic congressional ballot by 50 percent to 40 percent. In September's survey, the lead had been 50 percent to 43 percenthttp://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/10/21/can-democrats-pull-off-a-dewey-defeats-truman-feat-not-likely/

Update:  And speaking of "Dewey beats Truman" it seems AP on said as of 10/21 Democrats had a BIG turnout in early voting in Maryland.  The problem is, early voting in Maryland didn't start until today.

Here is an interesting question that I have for the Associated Press. The AP has a story from October 21 that features the news that Democrats in Maryland are turning out in bigger numbers for early voting than Republicans. But according to the Maryland State Board of Elections, early voting in the Old Line State isn’t supposed to start until October 22.


http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/29052



How the GOP was saved from Bush and the establishment.

Peggy Noonan comes through explaining how the Republicans have risen from the dead and why the Democrats refuse to see it.

Two central facts give shape to the historic 2010 election. The first is not understood by Republicans, and the second not admitted by Democrats.


The first: the tea party is not a "threat" to the Republican Party; the tea party saved the Republican Party. In a broad sense, the tea party rescued it from being the fat, unhappy, querulous creature it had become, a party that didn't remember anymore why it existed, or what its historical purpose was. The tea party, with its energy and earnestness, restored the GOP to itself. ….


Because of this, because they did not go third-party, Nov. 2 is not going to be a disaster for the Republicans, but a triumph.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304023804575566503565327356.html

Desperate Lies

Chamber Refutes Foreign Money Charge, Accuses Administration of 'Fear and Smear'

The Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday refuted Democrats' claims that it could be pumping foreign money into U.S. elections, accusing the Obama administration of "grasping at straws" in a last-ditch bid to shift public opinion.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/12/chamber-refutes-foreign-money-charge-accuses-administration-fear-smear/

This is interesting. It makes you wonder why would the administration keep harping on something that almost every news media characterizes as unfounded accusations? It appears to be just another sign of how desperate things are for the Democrats. It does take the narrative off the “accomplishments” of the Obama White House and even it the commentary isn’t flattering about what they are charging, it appears to be better than looking at what they have actually done.

Be Careful what you ask for

House and Senate Republican staff members on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and House Government Oversight Committee say they will be more than happy to open investigations into White House and Democrat party charges of foreign financial influence in the U.S. election process if they win back majorities in Congress this November.


"Given that we know that President Obama's presidential election campaign received millions of dollars and possibly tens of millions of dollars in foreign donations, and that a NUMBER OF UNION-FUNDED ORGANIZATIONS RECEIVED FOREIGN CONTRIBUTIONS during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles, and THAT MOVEON.ORG HAS PERHAPS RECEIVED MILLIONS IN FOREIGN CONTRIBUTIONS, not to mention the possibility that the Center for American Progress has foreign donors, we can see where the American people might be concerned that these entities not have the opportunity in the 2012 election cycle to tap into such resources," says a Senate Republican staffer with ties to the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee's Permanent Committee on Investigations. "And since our Democratic colleagues chose to ignore all of this, then perhaps we should revisit them."

It’s funny how frequently things tend to backfire in politics.

http://spectator.org/archives/2010/10/13/bring-it-on
Are the Democrats listening?

But what’s truly incredible about Obama’s pre-election performance is how it totally misses the mark on THE ISSUES THAT REALLY MATTER, LIKE HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, LOW GROWTH, big-government spending, Obamacare, and tax hikes. That’s the stuff people are really talking about.

It’s as though Obama is from another planet, completely disconnected from the political reality as we march toward November 2.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/249552/obama-alien-larry-kudlow
Anger fuels the coming election

Anger appears to be a big factor in the coming election. I think people are angry with the results of the current administration policies to combat the bad economy, but more so with the disregard of the feelings of the voters. Democrats have insulted, made fun of and dismissed those who are most concerned about the reckless spending.

Among those who are angry about the economy, 54 percent blame both parties equally. But 35 percent say they're angrier with the Democrats -- more than triple the number, 10 percent, who aim their ire at the Republicans. To the extent that anger equals motivation, that 25-point differential explains some of the GOP advantage in pre-election polls.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2010_Elections/abc-news-yahoo-pollanger-economy-fuels-republican/story?id=11826703

Election Nightmare

The four causes of what’s likely to be a landslide defeat for Democrats in the midterm election are now locked in place. All that’s left for Democrats in the final three weeks of the campaign is to TRASH REPUBLICANS, STIR THEIR BASE TO VOTE, AND PRAY.

The Democrat dream has become a nightmare.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/four-causes-will-lead-democratic-election-nightmare_508526.html

Election projections

We are in agreement with several recent analyses suggesting that there are approximately 35-40 house seats that should be rated in the "toss-up" category. To simplify things we will refer to the RCP assessment that has 39 "toss-up" seats. They have identified 185 seats as either likely or lean Democrat and 211 as either likely or lean GOP. In each of the remaining 39 "toss-up" races the Republicans and Democrats have been polling within points of each other--many are within the margin of error. So let's assume that these 39 races split 50/50, giving the GOP a 20-set pick up. That gives the GOP a 53-seat pick up and control of the House. But a more realistic analysis suggests that in this current environment--keeping in mind the above voting metrics and the GOP turnout advantage--the GOP will win approximately 70% of the toss-up seats. That would mean a total pickup of 60 seats. And then let's also assume that Republicans pick up a few of the "lean Democrat" seats. Our sense is that in a true "wave" election the party with the lead, the enthusiasm and the turnout advantage will take 70-80% of the toss-up seats in addition to some of the seats that "lean" toward the other party. Using this formula, at this point in time IT IS OUR SENSE THAT THE GOP WILL PICK UP A TOTAL OF AROUND 65 SEATS, giving the GOP control of the House (with 242 seats to the Democrats' 185).


The Senate is easier to visualize but, in some respects, more problematic to project. We continue to believe that it will come down to the West Coast, with the races in California (Boxer and Fiorina) and Washington (Murray and Rossi) holding the key to a Republican takeover. We've put Connecticut in the Democrat column and have put the following in the GOP column: KY, MO, NH, PA and WI. The other four true toss-up states are West Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and Illinois, although there are signs that all four are trending GOP at this time. Assuming Republicans win all four of these toss-up states, that leaves the aforementioned two West Coast races. THE GOP WOULD HAVE TO WIN ONE OF THOSE "AWAY GAMES" TO GET TO 51 SEATS IN THE SENATE.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-lombardo/21-days-to-go-and-democra_b_760085.html

Obama’s Biggest Lies

President Obama loves to make up things that are patently untrue, like every economist agrees his $800 billion economic stimulus “has done its job,” the economy “is moving in the right direction,” and the Bush tax cuts caused the trillion dollar deficits.

The facts say otherwise, but he is never challenged by the news media for his repeatedly dishonest myth-making. Here are some of his worst offenses.

Myth 1: President George W. Bush’s 2001-2003 across-the-board income tax cuts are responsible for the higher deficits and $13 trillion national debt we have today.


Fact: The Congressional Budget Office, using static analysis that does not account for growth incentives, says the BUSH TAX CUTS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONLY 14% OF THE DEFICITS. A dynamic analysis factoring higher economic growth would have shown that the tax cuts account for even less than that, says the Heritage Foundation’s chief budget analyst Brian Riedl.

This is a good read to counteract the standard liberal talking points.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=39385

Republicans Turn Outsourcing Attack Against Dems

The Democrats like to accuse the Republicans of supporting companies who send jobs overseas. It appears that this charge may backfire in this election.

In a reversal of roles, Republicans are attacking Democrats for supporting policies that would outsource jobs overseas and, in particular, to China.
The strategy is political jujitsu: Hotline On Call reported last week that Democrats were increasingly making outsourcing their go-to economic attack line this year. Democrats have long charged that Republicans support policies backed by Wall Street and big business that, ultimately, send jobs overseas. Now, Republicans are trying to use the issue -- and the electorate's anxiety toward outsourcing -- to their advantage.
In at least one Senate race and a handful of House races, Republicans have begun airing ads that attack Democrats for backing the economic stimulus package and claiming that the bill has sent jobs overseas. AFTER THE STIMULUS PASSED, AN INVESTIGATIVE REPORT FOUND THAT THE BILL SENT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MONEY TO WIND ENERGY COMPANIES BASED IN CHINA.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/republicans_tur.php