Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Promised Land

Why Poll Demographics matter

John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster and consultant to GOP candidates, told the conservative National Review last week that Democrats are lobbying media pollsters “to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models.”

The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias,” McLaughlin said.

Listening to the MSM today you have a CBS poll touting that Obama is opening a substantial lead in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.  Going to the demographics you see that the poll had +9 percent more Democrats in Ohio and Florida and +11 percent in Pennsylvania.  (go to page 20 in this link to see the actual numbers)

Here’s what will happen if you believe the polls

Here are the CBS/New York Times internals.  And here's the con the CBS/NYTs is attempting to pull: 
In 2004 the vote was R+4. 
In 2008 the vote was D+3 
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

In 2004 the vote was R+5 
In 2008 the vote was D+8 
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9

In 2010 the vote was D+3 
In 2008 the vote was D+7 
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.
If these happen, Obama will win, but this would say the electorate is even more enamored by BHO in 2012 than in 2008.  Care to make a bet on that?

Obama’s steep hill

We hear a lot of liberal commentators talk about the steep hill Romney has to climb.  But another way to look at it is to see what the Rasmussen strongly approve vs strongly disapprove of Mr. Obama’s performance.  This is among likely voters and today it stands at -17%.  43% of the voters strong disapprove and 26% strongly approve of President Obama.  This total up to 69% of the likely voters.  These people will most assuredly vote.  So the hill that Obama must climb is that with the remaining 31% of voters he must win 24% of them to get to 50%.  This amounts to 77% of the voters who are not strong for or against the president.  This is a huge task. 

Ryan declares independence of Romney: Left wing columnists jump on it

The problem was this is a satirical piece and the left wing columnists just wanted to believe it.  So who are the gullible ones?  The ones supporting Obama because they think the next four years will be better than the last four years.

Obama blames 90% of deficit in his term on Bush

The fact checkers at the Washington Post gave this statement 4 Pinocchios.   Fact checkers generally are “kind” to liberal claims, so 4 Pinocchios is a really devastating score.

Perhaps the MSM is getting embarrassed

“Like Ali, Obama Floats Like a Butterfly”–that’s the headline Real Clear Politics gave Howard Fineman’s latest post. But even though Fineman is Editorial Director for leftish Huffington Post (and appears regularly on MSNBC) his piece isn’t what you’d expect. It’s basically a plea to the MSM to start covering Obama the way they’d cover a normal candidate

An MSM veteran, Fineman, in essence, is agreeing with conservative critics of his profession: they’ve been cutting the President way too much slack, failing to take him to task in areas (the Woodward  portrayal, Libya, the jobs numbers ) where they would have hammered another candidate.

Ted Cruz’s dad talks about what a great country the USA is

Isn’t it kind of refreshing to hear this?  After almost 4 years of a progressive president who doesn’t seem to like America and wants to “fundamentally change it,” it’s good to hear the truth.

Hollywood appears to have fracked up another movie

There is a new Matt Damon movie, “Promised Land” which is about fracking. It one of Hollywood typical left wing plots that evil oil companies are destroying communities and Matt Damon must choose between his job and saving the community he is working in.  But just as they were about to go for the gold (touting it as Oscar material) real life intervened.

In courtroom after courtroom, it has been proved that anti-fracking activists have been guilty of fraud or misrepresentation.

There was Dimock, Pa. — the likely inspiration for “Promised Land,” which is also set in Pennsylvania. Dimock featured in countless news reports, with Hollywood celebrities even bringing water to 11 families who claimed fracking had destroyed their water and their lives.

But while “Promised Land” was in production, the story of Dimock collapsed. The state investigated and its scientists found nothing wrong. So the 11 families insisted EPA scientists investigate. They did — and much to the dismay of the environmental movement found the water was not contaminated. 

There was Wolf Eagle Environmental Engineers in Texas, a group that produced a frightening video of a flaming house water pipe and claimed a gas company had polluted the water. But a judge just found that the tape was an outright fraud— Wolf Eagle connected the house gas pipe to a hose and lit the water. 

Other “pollution” cases collapsed in Wyoming and Colorado. Even Josh Fox, who with his Oscar-nominated documentary “Gasland” first raised concerns about flammable water, has had to admit he withheld evidence that fracking was not responsible.

These frauds and misrepresentations created huge problems for the Damon/Krasinski script about “what defines us as a country.”

So, according to sources close to the movie, they’ve come up with a solution — suggest that anti-fracking fraudsters are really secret agents employed by the fossil-fuel industry to discredit the environmental movement. 

In the revised script, Damon exposes Krasinski as a fraud — only to realize that Krasinski’s character is working deep undercover for the oil industry to smear fracking opponents.

It makes you wonder if Damon’s character will find he’s been duped and can’t do anything about it or will the audience figure out they’ve been duped and stay away from the movie in droves.

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