Why Poll Demographics matter
John McLaughlin,
a Republican pollster and consultant to GOP candidates, told the conservative
National Review last week that Democrats
are lobbying media pollsters “to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008
Democrat-heavy models.”
“The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through
media polling bias,” McLaughlin said.
Listening to the MSM today you have a CBS poll
touting that Obama is opening a substantial lead in Ohio, Florida, and
Pennsylvania. Going to the demographics you see that the poll
had +9 percent more Democrats in Ohio and Florida and +11 percent in
Pennsylvania. (go to page 20 in this
link to see the actual numbers)
Here’s what will happen if you
believe the polls
Here are the CBS/New York Times internals. And here's the con the CBS/NYTs is attempting to
pull:
Florida:
In 2004 the vote was R+4.
In 2008 the vote was D+3
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.
Ohio:
In 2004 the vote was R+5
In 2008 the vote was D+8
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9
Pennsylvania:
In 2010 the vote was D+3
In 2008 the vote was D+7
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.
If these happen, Obama will win, but this would say the electorate is even
more enamored by BHO in 2012 than in 2008.
Care to make a bet on that?
Obama’s steep hill
We hear a lot of liberal
commentators talk about the steep hill Romney has to climb. But another way to look at it is to see what
the Rasmussen strongly approve vs strongly disapprove of Mr. Obama’s performance. This is among likely voters and today it
stands at -17%. 43% of the voters strong
disapprove and 26% strongly approve of President Obama. This total up to 69% of the likely
voters. These people will most assuredly
vote. So the hill that Obama must climb
is that with the remaining 31% of voters he must win 24% of them to get to
50%. This amounts to 77% of the voters who are not strong for or
against the president. This is a huge
task.
Ryan declares independence of
Romney: Left wing columnists jump on it
The problem was this is a satirical piece and the left wing
columnists just wanted to believe it. So
who are the gullible ones? The ones
supporting Obama because they think the next four years will be better than the
last four years.
Obama blames 90% of deficit in his
term on Bush
The fact checkers at the Washington
Post gave this statement 4 Pinocchios. Fact
checkers generally are “kind” to liberal claims, so 4 Pinocchios is a really devastating score.
Perhaps the MSM is getting embarrassed
“Like Ali,
Obama Floats Like a Butterfly”–that’s the headline Real Clear Politics gave Howard
Fineman’s latest post. But even though Fineman is Editorial Director for
leftish Huffington Post (and appears regularly on MSNBC)
his piece isn’t what you’d expect. It’s
basically a plea to the MSM to start covering Obama the way they’d cover a
normal candidate
An MSM veteran, Fineman, in essence, is agreeing
with conservative critics of his profession: they’ve been cutting the President way too much slack, failing to take him to
task in areas (the Woodward portrayal, Libya, the jobs numbers ) where
they would have hammered another candidate.
Ted Cruz’s dad talks about what a
great country the USA is
Isn’t it kind of refreshing to hear
this? After almost 4 years of a
progressive president who doesn’t seem to like America and wants to “fundamentally change it,” it’s good to
hear the truth.
Hollywood appears to have fracked up
another movie
There is a new Matt Damon movie, “Promised Land” which is about fracking.
It one of Hollywood typical left wing plots that evil oil companies are
destroying communities and Matt Damon
must choose between his job and saving the community he is working in. But just as they were about to go for the
gold (touting it as Oscar material) real
life intervened.
In courtroom
after courtroom, it has been proved that anti-fracking
activists have been guilty of fraud or misrepresentation.
There was Dimock, Pa. — the likely inspiration for “Promised
Land,” which is also set in Pennsylvania. Dimock featured in countless news reports,
with Hollywood celebrities even bringing water to 11 families who claimed
fracking had destroyed their water and their lives.
But while
“Promised Land” was in production, the story of Dimock collapsed. The state investigated and its scientists
found nothing wrong. So the 11 families
insisted EPA scientists investigate. They did — and much to the dismay of the
environmental movement found the water was not contaminated.
There was Wolf Eagle Environmental Engineers in
Texas, a group that produced a frightening video of a flaming house water
pipe and claimed a gas company had polluted the water. But a judge just found
that the tape was an outright fraud— Wolf
Eagle connected the house gas pipe to a hose and lit the water.
Other
“pollution” cases collapsed in Wyoming and Colorado. Even Josh Fox, who with
his Oscar-nominated documentary “Gasland” first raised concerns about flammable
water, has had to admit he withheld
evidence that fracking was not responsible.
These
frauds and misrepresentations created huge problems for the Damon/Krasinski
script about “what defines us as a country.”
So,
according to sources close to the movie, they’ve come up with a solution —
suggest that anti-fracking fraudsters
are really secret agents employed by the fossil-fuel industry to discredit the
environmental movement.
In the
revised script, Damon exposes Krasinski as a fraud — only to realize that
Krasinski’s character is working deep undercover for the oil industry to smear
fracking opponents.
It makes you wonder if Damon’s
character will find he’s been duped and can’t do anything about it or will the
audience figure out they’ve been duped and stay away from the movie in droves.
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