Sunday, October 21, 2012

The election is coming soon as Romney surges

Reno Gazette Journal endorses Romney

A vote to re-elect Obama promises four more years of the same. In the two debates between the two candidates so far (a third, on foreign affairs, is scheduled for Monday), the president has shown little understanding of how his failures are affecting the nation, and he hasn’t offered any tangible proposals to change course.

The Reno Gazette Journal endorsed Obama in 2008.

The Obama Administration hung Ambassador Stevens out to dry

Roughly a month earlier, Stevens had signed a two-page cable, also labeled “sensitive,” that he entitled “The Guns of August: Security in Eastern Libya.” Writing on August 8, the ambassador noted that in just a few months’ time, “Benghazi has moved from trepidation to euphoria and back as a series of violent incidents has dominated the political landscape … The individual incidents have been organized,” he added, a function of “the security vacuum that a diverse group of independent actors are exploiting for their own purposes.”

“Islamist extremists are able to attack the Red Cross with relative impunity,” Stevens cabled. “What we have seen are not random crimes of opportunity, but rather targeted and discriminate attacks.” His final comment on the two-page document was: “Attackers are unlikely to be deterred until authorities are at least as capable.”

But this didn’t stop the State Department from removing security rather than adding to it.  No wonder Obama has tried to deny this, he was stalling to try to keep this information from getting out until the election was over.

Obama’s “War on Women” meme

It’s failed.  The huge gap between men and women has closed and this is why Romney is surging.  But more than that, the simplistic view the Democrats have of women is insulting.  It appears to be a form of the sexist’s idea that men think with their “little brain.” 

Another sign the Democratic strategy isn’t working

The Reno Gazette-Journal had the following headline.  Fluke takes center stage in Reno.  The first sentence of the article says the following:

Sandra Fluke, the woman at the center of a media firestorm earlier this year after Rush Limbaugh called her a “slut,” spoke Saturday in front of about 10 people at the Sak ‘N Save in north Reno.
Since when does center stage only involves 10 people? 

Why Romney is surging

Why are voters, even ones who think Obama won the debate last Tuesday, still breaking for Romney? A clue can be found in the issue breakdowns of both post-debate polls. Undecided voters name Romney the better candidate on jobs and the economy, by commanding margins -- CNN had Romney up 18 points on jobs, and CBS had him up 31 points.

Ohio Poll has it all tied up

The latest Gravis Marketing poll conducted in Ohio shows Governor Romney and President Obama locked in a virtual dead heat, 47% to 47%. Here are a few key findings from the survey :

Romney leads by 6 percentage points among men (50 to 44 percent), while Obama leads by 4 percentage points among women (49 to 45 percent).

Both sides are doing well to consolidate their bases in Ohio. 87 percent of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama and 92 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney if the election were held today. Governor Romney leads with independents 52 to 33 percent.

Having a feel for numbers several red flags went up.  If Governor Romney is ahead among men and independents how is it that the poll is tied.  It was apparent to me that there had to be a lot more Democratic women in the survey.  Going to the actually survey I found out I was right.  The survey included 41% Democrats, 32% Republicans, and 27% independents.  There were 53% women and 47% men.  So Obama is tied by having a plus 9 percent Democratic sample when Republicans outnumber Democrats in Ohio by 1 percent.


Because I have been growing steadily more optimistic about Election 2012 since Governor Romney demolished President Obama in debate #1, many of my listeners and blog and Twitter followers have been emailing me dire warnings about the "reality" of the Chicago machine, the statistical precision of Nate Silver, the InTrade quote and various other arguments as to why I ought to dampen down my belief that the momentum behind Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan is large and growing….

Anything can happen, but it is increasingly unlikely for two reasons.

First, the country is in very bad shape.  The difficulties are enormous, and no one who fills up a tank of gas or watches even a bit of news doubts it.  This situation compels the independents and even many Democrats, perhaps privately in the latter case, to pull the lever for Romney.
Second, Mitt Romney is a very good man, and the past two weeks have put that reality on display for everyone who cares to notice to see…

We do not double down on failure, and President Obama has failed.
Hugh Hewitt is correct.  Presidents don’t win reelection with an economy like this.  

The Polls at this point in the election cycle

As this point in the election cycle, Governor Romney is out polling Carter, Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama in their successful election bids.

Obama’s Presidency in song

Here’s a great video.

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