Friday, May 21, 2010

Global Warming Tidbits

Will Global Warming increase the incidents of Malaria as the IPCC and Al Gore contend?

No. You can get the details here. Watch the 5 minute video and learn why.

In addition Nature publishes a study which:

Climate change is, in our view, an unwelcome distraction from the main issues,” according to Oxford University’s Peter Gething, the study’s lead researcher. Gething notes that malaria has been steadily decreasing while global temperatures increased. Instead of focussing on a non-issue, Gething believes, malaria-fighting resources should be directed to measures needed to maximize the progress in fighting this disease.

Why is this important? Proponents of AGW keep rolling out disasters that seem akin to biblical plagues if we don't do what they want us to. They simply aren't true.

Is the Current Temperatures the hottest we've seen in the past 2,000 years?

No. In a recent study pubished in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science which instead of using tree rings as a proxy for air temperature, the study's authors extracted data from sea shells preserved in deep sedimentary layers, using them as a proxy for sea temperature in the North Atlantic over the course of two millennia. According to the study, the "reconstructed water temperatures for the Roman Warm Period in Iceland are higher than any temperatures recorded in modern times." The heat lasted from approximately 230 B.C. to 140 A.D. After that, temperatures rose and fell over time with a second peak taking place during the better-known Medieval Warm Period.

Why is the important? If it was warmer in the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period than today, then the projections of tipping points and catastrophes are way over stated.

Will Sea Level Rise and cause massive flooding per Al Gore?

No. Actually this one has always been no, but in the late 1990s satellites showed in increase from about 1.5 mm per year increase in sea level (about 5.9 inches per century) to 3.2 mm per year increase in sea level (about 12.6 inches per century). Over the last 5 years this rate as gone back to 1.5 mm per year. Both of these numbers are way below the 20 foot rise Gore said was a realistic possibility. Perhaps it was this news that led Al Gore to buying ocean front property.

Why is the important? The actual rate of sea level rise has fallen since the last ice age ended. Despite the gimmicks like the Maldives government trying to highlight the impact of climate change on their island nation by donning scuba gear a pretending to hold a meeting underwater, they aren't really in any trouble.

Doesn't the Temperature on Venus provide a warning to the Earth on the effect of runaway greenhouse gas warming?

No. Although used as a red herring by many on the AGW side of the spectrum, Venus heat is excess heat is not simply due to CO2. Although the atmosphere on Venus is almost 100% CO2 here are the factors which account for their heat.

386 degrees for adiabatic expansion from 93 atmospheres to 1 atmosphere.

52 degrees for Venus' extra solar radiation, and

20 degrees for Greenhouse Effect and all other plus and minus effects (such at thick cloud cover)

It turns out that most of Venus' "extra" surface heat is due to the adiabatic compression caused by the high pressure, the next most is caused by extra solar radiation, and Greenhouse Effect is a distant third.

The atmosphere on Venus is much thicker than on earth and the atmospheric pressure is about 93 times that on Earth.

Why is this important? This is just another false analogy used to stir people up and get them to do what the politicians and AGW supporters want them to do.

Isn't the IPCC's predictions regarding global warming something we should be concerned about?

No. They warmist hope that you will be worried but you shouldn't. First of all, the IPCC doesn't make predictions. You can only make predictions if your model(s) are validated. The IPCC models aren't validated (they have 11 and if they were validated there would only be one). If a model isn't validated they can only make projections, ie. based upon this model and these conditions, this will happen.

Why is this important? Actually the key factor that the AGW uses is projections from their flawed models. The supporters said after Climategate, it doesn't affect the basic science. They were right, but there isn't a lot of basic science that supports their projections.

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