Showing posts with label AGW. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AGW. Show all posts

Friday, October 26, 2012

The What Happened Edition



 
What happened to the Polls?

The one thing we can see is that the polls have turned heavily to Romney’s favor.  But there is a bigger story than that in that the polls are still skewed toward the Democrats in the demographics.
Here’s from the Real Clear Politics list
Poll                  Result             Demographic
AP                   R +2                D +6
IBD/TIPP        O+3                 D +7
ABC/WP         R +1                D +4
Monmouth        R +3                D +4
NBC                Tie                   D +6
CBS                O +2                Tie
W.P.                R +3                D +4

The unknown is the turnout, but the indicators are that the Republicans are more enthused than the Democrats are for the coming election.  Rasmussen uses a D +1 poll.  It appears that Romney is much more ahead than the polls indicate.   A recent Gallup poll in the crosstab found more Republicans or lean Republicans will vote this election than Democrat or lean Democrats (2008 this was D+12, now it’s R+3 a 15 point swing).   The last Democrat stand is to try to get the not likely voter to vote and have them do it early.  There are still about 2% who are undecided.  History tells us they will break heavily for Romney. 


What happened to Romney in Colorado?

After a fabulous reception by the crowd at Red Rocks in Colorado, Mitt Romney takes a moment.



Peggy Noonan nails what happened to Obama in Denver

Why was the first debate so toxic for the president? Because the one thing he couldn't do if he was going to win the election is let all the pent-up resentment toward him erupt. Americans had gotten used to him as The President. Whatever his policy choices, whatever general direction he seemed to put in place he was The President, a man who had gotten there through natural gifts and what all politicians need, good fortune. 

What he couldn't do was present himself, when everyone was looking, as smaller than you thought. Petulant, put upon, above it all, full of himself. He couldn't afford to make himself look less impressive than the challenger in terms of command, grasp of facts, size.
But that's what he did.

And in some utterly new way the president was revealed, exposed. All the people whose job it is to surround and explain him, to act as his buffers and protectors—they weren't there. It was him on the stage, alone with a competitor. He didn't have a teleprompter, and so his failure seemed to underscore the cliché that the prompter is a kind of umbilical cord for him, something that provides nourishment, the thing he needs to sound good. He is not by any means a stupid man but he has become a boring one; he drones, he is predictable, it's never new. The teleprompter adds substance, or at least safe



What ever happened to our post racial President?

Camille Paglia expounds on why she isn’t voting for Barack Obama:  

It would be a tremendous transformation of attitudes. And instead: one thing after another. Not least: I consider him, now, one of the most racially divisive and polarizing figures ever. I think it's going to take years to undo the damage to relationships between the races. 



What ever happened to Keith Olbermann?

Perhaps he has proven himself to be the “Worst Person in the World.”



What ever happened to Global Warming?

The debates this year were absent any mention of Global Warming.  This was the first time this has happened in 24 years.  And what ever happened to Al Gore?   


What happened to pursuing jobs in his first term?

When asked if he regretted pursuing ObamaCare and other liberal social priorities in his first two years rather than focusing on the economy, Obama said: 

"Absolutely not," Mr. Obama told the Iowa journalists. "Remember the context. First of all, Mitch McConnell has imposed an ironclad filibuster from the first day I was in office. And that's not speculation." 

No, it’s not speculation, it simply a falsehood.  Remember what Rahm Emanuel said, "We have the votes. F-- 'em.”  Does that sound like someone who was hamstrung by filibusters?



What will Obama miss the most about not being President?

The plane will be missed and the police escorts too, but I think it will be the lavish entertaining done at taxpayer expense.

The Obama extravaganza two years ago for Mexican President Felipe Calderon, which included a performance by pop star Beyonce cost $969,793, or more than $4,700 per attendee, the documents show.




What happened to the Progressive Paradise

The American people are in for it. When Republicans lose elections, they blame each other: Talk radio blames the RINOs; the squishes blame the pro-lifers; the social conservatives blame the Big Business types, and so on. Each faction maintains that their party will never find acceptance with voters until the rest of the movement looks just like them.

When Democrats lose, on the other hand, they blame America. They tut-tut about gullible voters being way-laid by crafty messaging. Or rubes foolishly voting against their self-interest. Or middle Americans being a bunch of fundamentalist crazies. (Remember the “Jesusland” map after 2004?) With a Republican wave about to wash over the Obama administration, the public is due for a good talking-to. On the nation’s op-ed pages, it’s already started.
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I don’t think they will simply blame America.  Of course America is the primary villain, but Bill Clinton is already being mentioned and we’ve heard the claims that Romney is lying.  I even read a piece that blamed Bush because he didn’t crash the economy back in 2005 so the American public would have elected Obama and seen that he was doing so much more than Bush theoretically could have done. 



Obama fundraiser cancelled because of Sandy

Does this seem like God is against the President? 




New Obama Ad likens voting for the first time for Obama to losing your virginity

Probably this is correct.  In both cases you’ve gotten screwed.



More on Benghazi

AC-130U Gunship was on the scene in Benghazi, but the Obama Administrationrefused to let it fire.   



Obama tells Leno math was okay til 7th Grade

Tell us something else we couldn’t have figured out.

Saturday, April 28, 2012

An AGW alternative


What’s new Today 

Story #1 tells what really happened with the Osama bin Laden killing.  #2 tells of Obama’s problem with the economy.  Mediocre is not good enough.  #3 Is a story on a new study which puts the AGW hypothesis on its head. 

Today’s thoughts

With Obama still talking about green power and the jobs it will create has he noticed Spain which decided to take that route in Europe has an unemployment rate of 24.4%.



If the President and the Democrats are so eager to insure that the interest rate on college loans doesn’t increase, why is he threatening to veto the bill passed in the House?



1.   Obama’s Gutsy Call?


Today, Time magazine got hold of a memo written by then-CIA head Leon Panetta after he received orders from Barack Obama’s team to greenlight the bin Laden mission. Here’s the text, which summarized the situation:


Received phone call from Tom Donilon who stated that the President made a decision with regard to AC1 [Abbottabad Compound 1]. The decision is to proceed with the assault.

The timing, operational decision making and control are in Admiral McRaven’s hands. The approval is provided on the risk profile presented to the President. Any additional risks are to be brought back to the President for his consideration. The direction is to go in and get bin Laden and if he is not there, to get out. Those instructions were conveyed to Admiral McRaven at approximately 10:45 am….



…Only the memo doesn’t show a gutsy call. It doesn’t show a president willing to take the blame for a mission gone wrong. It shows a CYA maneuver by the White House….






Talk about bad timing.  The DNC has just put out an ad that reiterates the “gutsy call” scenario and questions whether Romney would have made it.  It appears that the qualification of the “risk profile” was a perfect cover to blame the military if things went badly.



2.  Obama’s economic problem



Weak Growth, Weak Hiring

How weak was the economy's 2.2 percent growth rate from January through March? It depends.

Consider that a growth rate of 2.5 percent or higher is considered good when the economy is healthy.  But not at a time of high unemployment.

With 12.7 million people unemployed, today's economy needs much faster growth to boost hiring. Growth would have to be roughly 4 percent for a full year to lower the unemployment rate, now 8.2 percent, by 1 percentage point.




This is a huge problem for Obama.  Even if the growth spurted now, the unemployment rate would most likely rise as there are 5 million people missing from the employment numbers and they would come back into the unemployed numbers. 











3.  Svensmark's cosmic Jackpot--a death knell for AGW?





Nigel Calder asks us to republish this post for maximum exposure. He writes:  

Today the Royal Astronomical Society in London publishes (online) Henrik Svensmark’s latest paper entitled “Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth”. After years of effort Svensmark shows how the variable frequency of stellar explosions not far from our planet has ruled over the changing fortunes of living things throughout the past half billion years. Appearing in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, it’s a giant of a paper, with 22 figures, 30 equations and about 15,000 words. See the RAS press release at http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/219-news-2012/2117-did-exploding-stars-help-life-on-earth-to-thrive

By taking me back to when I reported the victory of the pioneers of plate tectonics in their battle against the most eminent geophysicists of the day, it makes me feel 40 years younger. Shredding the textbooks, Tuzo Wilson, Dan McKenzie and Jason Morgan merrily explained earthquakes, volcanoes, mountain-building, and even the varying depth of the ocean, simply by the drift of fragments of the lithosphere in various directions around the globe.

In Svensmark’s new paper an equally concise theory, that cosmic rays from exploded stars cool the world by increasing the cloud cover, leads to amazing explanations, not least for why evolution sometimes was rampant and sometimes faltered. In both senses of the word, this is a stellar revision of the story of life.

Here are the main results:

·         The long-term diversity of life in the sea depends on the sea-level set by plate tectonics and the local supernova rate set by the astrophysics, and on virtually nothing else.

·         The long-term primary productivity of life in the sea – the net growth of photosynthetic microbes – depends on the supernova rate, and on virtually nothing else.

·         Exceptionally close supernovae account for short-lived falls in sea-level during the past 500 million years, long-known to geophysicists but never convincingly explained..

·         As the geological and astronomical records converge, the match between climate and supernova rates gets better and better, with high rates bringing icy times.



Presented with due caution as well as with consideration for the feelings of experts in several fields of research, a story unfolds in which everything meshes like well-made clockwork. Anyone who wishes to pooh-pooh any piece of it by saying “correlation is not necessarily causality” should offer some other mega-theory that says why several mutually supportive coincidences arise between events in our galactic neighbourhood and living conditions on the Earth.

An amusing point is that Svensmark stands the currently popular carbon dioxide story on its head. Some geoscientists want to blame the drastic alternations of hot and icy conditions during the past 500 million years on increases and decreases in carbon dioxide, which they explain in intricate ways. For Svensmark, the changes driven by the stars govern the amount of carbon dioxide in the air. Climate and life control CO2, not the other way around.

By implication, supernovae also determine the amount of oxygen available for animals like you and me to breathe. So the inherently simple cosmic-ray/cloud hypothesis now has far-reaching consequences, which I’ve tried to sum up in this diagram.



Cosmic rays in action. The main findings in the new Svensmark paper concern the uppermost stellar band, the green band of living things and, on the right, atmospheric chemistry. Although solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays is important to us on short timescales, its effects are smaller and briefer than the major long-term changes controlled by the rate of formation of big stars in our vicinity, and their self-destruction as supernovae. Although copyrighted, this figure may be reproduced with due acknowledgement in the context of Henrik Svensmark's work.

By way of explanation

The text of “Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth” is available via ftp://ftp2.space.dtu.dk/pub/Svensmark/MNRAS_Svensmark2012.pdf The paper is highly technical, as befits a professional journal, so to non-expert eyes even the illustrations may be a little puzzling. So I’ve enlisted the aid of Liz Calder to explain the way one of the most striking graphs, Svensmark’s Figure 20, was put together. That graph shows how, over the past 440 million years, the changing rates of supernova explosions relatively close to the Earth have strongly influenced the biodiversity of marine invertebrate animals, from trilobites of ancient times to lobsters of today. Svensmark’s published caption ends: “Evidently marine biodiversity is largely explained by a combination of sea-level and astrophysical activity.” To follow his argument you need to see how Figure 20 draws on information in Figure 19. That tells of the total diversity of the sea creatures in the fossil record, fluctuating between times of rapid evolution and times of recession….





Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Over reaching government

What’s new Today

Our #1 story points out the real ideologue in the country today are not on the right, but on the left.  #2 is an explanation of why the youth vote is so unreliable.  #3 is an excellent look at the Democrats and their opposition to voter ID checks.  #4 is just another little bit of liberty that is being sucked away from us by the nanny state.  #5 shows us a new kind of arithmetic, the kind they use in Washington to demonstrate how a 3% increase is a cut in spending.  #6 and #7 are good news.  It appears aspirin can help stop Cancer from spreading and it appears global warming is magically not happening.



1.  Ideology vs Practicality

…Here’s pretty much all you need to know about Obamanomics: In 2011, the Obama White House suggested raising the top dividend tax rate to 20 percent from 15 percent. Keeping the dividend rate at a relatively low level, the White House said, “reduces the tax bias against equity investment and promotes a more efficient allocation of capital.” Makes sense, right? Basic economics.

Yet in his brand-new, 2013 budget, Obama calls for taxing dividends as ordinary income, essentially raising the top rate all the way to 39.6 percent. And then when you tack on the 3.8 percentage point Obamacare surtax — and an additional 1.2 percentage point itemized deduction phase-out for high-end taxpayers — the rate rises to 44.6 percent.

So apparently Obama is now in favor of a greater bias against equity investment (and in favor of debt) and promoting less efficient allocation of capital.

Liberals of late have been working round the clock to convince the country that the difference between liberalism and conservatism is that liberals follow the empirical evidence and conservatives mindlessly follow ideology. No one has done more to refute this than Obama himself. It began before he was even elected. In an April 2008 debate with Hillary Clinton, Obama made remarks that instantly became famous. Moderator Charlie Gibson asked Obama if history shows cutting capital gains taxes increases revenues and raising capital gains taxes decreases revenues–and Gibson read Obama the history of raising and cutting capital gains taxes to demonstrate this was so–would he still want to raise capital gains taxes?

“Well, Charlie, what I’ve said is that I would look at raising the capital gains tax for purposes of fairness,” Obama answered.  That is, not only does the evidence against his plan not deter him from instituting it, but the facts were never even a part of the calculation. He was not concerned with economics or history; ideology was his only consideration….


The real ideologues are the left.  As Ann Coulter said: “the history of liberalism consists of replacing things that work with things that sounded good on paper.”



2.  The Youth Vote

For many, the 2008 election wasn’t just a victory for Democrats—it was also the long-awaited return of young adults to the voting booth. Now Obama supporters are hoping that, come Election Day 2012, young adults will once again turn out in droves. But 2008 probably didn’t signal a permanent resurgence of the youth vote. In fact, there are good reasons to believe that young people will vote in significantly lower numbers this time around.

It has long been a puzzle why so many young adults do not vote—and why their already low voting rate has generally fallen over the decades. In 1972, 53 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds went to the polls. By 2000, the figure had fallen to just 36 percent, a historic low. (In contrast, the voting rate among people aged 65 or older rose five percentage points during those years, to 68 percent.) There is no doubt that the Obama campaign of 2008 energized the under-30 crowd, boosting their voting rate to 46 percent. But even then, fewer than half of 18-to-29-year-olds went to the polls compared with more than two-thirds of people aged 65 or older, according to the Census Bureau.

So why don’t young adults vote? That’s a vexing question political campaigns have been asking for decades. The most likely answer is that young adults do not vote because many are still—in a sense—children, without adult commitments or responsibilities. The data suggest that three factors consistently make a difference in voting rates: money, marriage, and homeownership. Those are the adult commitments that give people a stake in society; to protect and expand their stake, they vote. Take a look at money and voting: The gap in voter participation between the highest and lowest income groups is a stunning 26 percentage points. For marriage and homeownership, the gaps are 16 to 17 percent.

Recent years have seen Americans in their twenties delay starting careers, getting married, and buying homes—and as the road to adulthood has lengthened, voting rates among the young have generally fallen (the notable exceptions are 2004 and 2008). Now, the bad economy is exacerbating these trends. For the nation’s young, the Great Recession has turned money, marriage, and homeownership into an impossible dream….

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/100774/young-voters-election-2012

This article is an interesting explanation as to the question of turnout by the young.  In 2008, Obama benefited from a much larger turnout than normal but he was compared to a “rock star” which does cause young people to camp out for tickets for.  Obama is no longer a rock star.



3.  Why Do Democrats Want to Protect Voter Fraud?




Suffrage: A new study finds that nearly 2 million dead people remain on voter registration rolls. So tell us again why Democrats oppose voter ID laws that would help prevent these errant registrations from being exploited?

The Pew Center on the States study found that our country's voter registration system is "plagued with errors and inefficiencies." That's putting it mildly.

As many as 24 million registrations are invalid or contain significant errors, including almost 3 million who are registered in two or more states and 1.8 million dead people still listed as active voters….

….Just as important is how this flawed system highlights the need for tougher voter ID laws. After all, if 2 million dead people are on the active voter rolls, how difficult would it be to use those registrations to illicitly tip a close election?

Yet Democrats are pummeling states trying to impose picture ID laws to protect against this kind of fraud. They vetoed such laws in Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The Justice Department blocked South Carolina's new photo ID law. And NAACP President Benjamin Jealous attacked the reforms as "the greatest assault on voting rights ... since the dawn of Jim Crow."

Democrats make two bogus arguments. First, that ballot fraud isn't "widespread" enough to merit the new requirement, as though there's such a thing as a tolerable level of fraud. Second, that picture ID laws would suppress voter turnout among minorities.

In fact, states with picture ID laws go out of their way to make sure everyone who needs an ID can get one. Plus, turnout in Indiana and Georgia swelled after their laws went into effect, and the Supreme Court already ruled that picture ID laws don't infringe on anyone's right to vote.

Given this, it's hard to escape the conclusion that Democrats count on exploiting an inept and tattered registration system to help them win close elections. If that isn't the case, they should prove it by backing a reform that would do much to protect the sanctity of the ballot box.

http://news.investors.com/Article/601209/201202141851/voter-registration-flaws-expose-elections-to-fraud-.htm?src=IBDDAE

When this issue is brought up, the arguments used by the Democrats remind me of a magician who is trying to divert attention so he can work his magic.  The third argument you get is that it costs money.  I guess that is the one area besides military spending that the left is a deficit hawk.





4.  Mom’s lunch doesn’t pass the test for HHS

A preschooler at West Hoke Elementary School ate three chicken nuggets for lunch Jan. 30 because a state employee told her the lunch her mother packed was not nutritious.

The girl’s turkey and cheese sandwich, banana, potato chips, and apple juice did not meet U.S. Department of Agriculture guidelines, according to the interpretation of the agent who was inspecting all lunch boxes in her More at Four classroom that day.

The Division of Child Development and Early Education at the Department of Health and Human Services requires all lunches served in pre-kindergarten programs — including in-home day care centers — to meet USDA guidelines. That means lunches must consist of one serving of meat, one serving of milk, one serving of grain, and two servings of fruit or vegetables, even if the lunches are brought from home.

When home-packed lunches do not include all of the required items, child care providers must supplement them with the missing ones.

The girl’s mother — who said she wishes to remain anonymous to protect her daughter from retaliation — said she received a note from the school stating that students who did not bring a “healthy lunch” would be offered the missing portions, which could result in a fee from the cafeteria, in her case $1.25….

http://www.carolinajournal.com/exclusives/homemade-lunch-replaced-with-cafeteria-nuggets.html

The left isn’t stopping our freedom?  LOL.  That’s all they want to do.





5.  Never Trust Government Numbers

President Obama said in his State of the Union speech, “We’ve already agreed to more than $2 trillion in cuts and savings.”

That was reassuring.

The new budget he released this week promises $4 trillion in “deficit reduction” — about half in tax increases and half in spending cuts. But like most politicians, Obama misleads.

Cato Institute economist Dan Mitchell cut through the fog to get at the truth of the $2 trillion “cut.”

“We have a budget of, what, almost $4 trillion? So if we’re doing $2 trillion of cuts,” Mitchell said, “we’re cutting government in half. That sounds wonderful.”

But what the president was talking about is not even a cut. The politicians just agreed that over the next 10 years, instead of increasing spending by $9.48 trillion, they’d increase it by “just” $7.3 trillion. Calling that a “cut” is nonsense…




And in Obamaese a tax increase is paying your fair share, new spending is an investment normally to win the future.  Language is something that doesn’t hold up well with politicians. 





Good News!

6.  Aspirin:  Stopping the Spread of Cancer

THE humble painkiller aspirin could be the secret weapon to beat cancer after scientists discovered it can stop tumours spreading.

The revolutionary finding solves the mystery of how the over-the- counter wonder drug works to halt the disease in its tracks.

The breakthrough by experts in Australia will now pave the way for new treatments which may even help cure the disease for good.

Lead researcher Dr Tara Karnezis, of the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, said: “I hope this information is one bit of the puzzle that will lead to a cure for cancer.”

Aspirin, a non-steroid anti-inflammatory drug – or NSAID – has long been known to slash the death rates from a range of common cancers including those of the stomach and bowel, oesophagus, pancreas, lungs, prostate, bladder, breast and kidneys.

Now the Australian team have discovered that cancer tumours secrete proteins and compounds called growth factors. These attract blood and lymphatic vessels to their vicinity and allow the cancer to flourish and spread…Top of Form

…The growth factors have also been shown to encourage these lymphatic vessels – or “supply lines” – to widen, allowing the spread of cancer.

But Dr Karnezis said NSAID drugs can stop this widening, therefore hindering the spread of the disease. She said: “A group of drugs reverse the widening of the supply line and make it hard for the tumour to spread. At the end of the day that’s what kills people….




Excuse me while I take my aspirin.  This is terrific news and we all can hope that more is done about it.  Go faster….







7.  Snowfall over Sierras consistent for last 130 years

Snowfall in the Sierra Nevada has remained consistent for 130 years, with no evidence that anything has changed as a result of climate change, according to a study released Tuesday.

The analysis of snowfall data in the Sierra going back to 1878 found no more or less snow overall - a result that, on the surface, appears to contradict aspects of recent climate change models.

John Christy, the Alabama state climatologist who authored the study, said the amount of snow in the mountains has not decreased in the past 50 years, a period when greenhouse gases were supposed to have increased the effects of global warming.

The heaping piles of snow that fell in the Sierra last winter and the paltry amounts this year fall within the realm of normal weather variability, he concluded.

"The dramatic claims about snow disappearing in the Sierra just are not verified," said Christy, a climate change skeptic and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University  of Alabama in Huntsville. "It looks like you're going to have snow for the foreseeable future." …


The alarmists don’t seem to be able to get a break.  First we learn the glaciers in the Himalayas aren’t receding and now the snows in the Sierras haven’t changed.