Today’s
Thoughts
Report: Obama's Jobs Council chief, GM CEO Jeff Immelt, says he will vote for Romney.
Do
liberals believe that money corrupts
politics unless the money is given to them and their intentions somehow purify
money? It appears so.
Lie of the Day
Goes to Debbie
Wasserman Schultz
who went on with Anderson Cooper and was shredded for suggesting Mitt Romney is against abortion in the case of rape, incest
and the life of the mother.
Listening to this makes you almost feel sorry for DWS. As she is over and over challenged by Mr.
Cooper she falls back to “the bottom
line is.” The actual bottom line is that DWS is lying and lying seems to be
part of her job as the DNC Chairwoman.
Fox Poll: Romney/Ryan
takes the lead
The latest Fox News Poll has
Romney/Ryan taking the lead. It’s being presented as if it is a huge
change in the first poll after Romney picked Paul Ryan. Is this election very close and is it in
flux? The answer is a surprising no.
This was the first Fox Poll with
likely voters. Part of the change from
the last poll is attributed to it. What
surprises me is how stable the actual numbers are. For
job approval, Obama’s current numbers among
likely voters is 46% approval and 50% disapproval. Among registered voters this is 46% approval and 48% disapproval. The August 5-7 had Obama 49% to 46%. So the change
between registered and likely voters is 2% more disapproval and from early August to now is 5%. Can we attribute that 2% difference (among registered
voters) as due to Ryan or is it just noise?
Now comes the real difference
between the polls in early August and today.
In early August among registered
voters Fox sampled 44% Democrats to 35% Republicans a spread of 9%. Remember the overall results had Obama ahead
by 9%. This time among registered voters Fox sampled 42% Democrats and 35%
Republicans a 7% edge for the Democrats.
This time Obama was only ahead by 2 points (44-42 percent) among
registered voters. If you were looking
for a Ryan bump you could make a case that this is it.
But among likely voters that 7 point spread was slashed to 4% with the
Democrats being 42% to the Republicans 38%. With that change Romney ended up leading 45%
to 44%.
I have said that Romney is likely ahead by 5% and have said
this for the past month. I have said
this because the polls continue to
oversample Democrats. This election is extremely tight according
to this latest poll only if you expect that 4% more Democrats will come to the
polls than Republicans. But if you
take the polls this month from multiple sources and correct them to have equal
numbers of Democrats and Republicans you find a consistent 4-6 percent lead for
Romney. In view of the enthusiasm of the
Republicans (a plus 10% edge over the Democrats), it is hardly likely that the
Democrats will do better than match the Republicans in voting. If the election is like 2010 these numbers
should be equal which adds 4% to Romney/Ryan’s
totals.
But
in reality they are even further ahead than that.
This poll gave the Republicans a 10% lead among independents with 25% of
them being undecided. This amounts to 4%
of the electorate that is up for grabs.
This part of the electorate is likely to go heavily to Romney/Ryan as
the undecided break heavily for the challenger in this kind of a race. So if
they break 3% to 1% here’s what it means.
The actual numbers are 47% Romney to 42% Obama (equalizing Democrats
and Republicans in the poll). Add 3% to
Romney and 1% to Obama and you have it 50% to 43%. Take 2% for third party candidates and split
the 5% that is left equally between Romney and Obama and the final numbers at 52.5% Romney Ryan to 44.5% Obama/Biden.
Here’s the bottom line. This
election isn’t close. Romney/Ryan is comfortably
ahead and the numbers are remarkably stable.
We’ve seen wild fluctuations in the polls primarily because they over sample Democrats and vary greatly
in how they do that. This poll shows you
a 2-3 percent Democratic advantage when
you use registered voters rather than likely voters. I will
be keeping an eye on the polls and keeping you informed to what I see.
This
can change, but right now there is no reason to expect that it will.
Obama spent a lot of time and money trying to slime Romney these past
three months, but the fact remains the
economy stinks and this is the overriding factor in the election. In the final 74 days of the election cycle,
we don’t expect the economy to suddenly get better and Romney will have more
money than Obama will to get his message out with.
Here’s a link to see the
demographics I’ve talked about here.
What are the Candidates plans for the future?
President
Obama is trying to make this election a choice between stability and change.
He’s the stability and Romney is
the change. He’s also done everything
he can to make that “change” seem scary.
Yet the real election is radical leftist change which Obama won’t talk
about and Romney’s programs that you will hear about. Stability or change
For All
Obamaholics
There’s a new book out for Obamaholics. In it the Author Craig T says: “I’m
an Obamaholic. Welcome to what Alcoholics Anonymous would call a ‘meeting in
print.’ We’re here to admit to each other and to ourselves that the Obama presidency isn’t Obama’s fault — it’s ours. We should be impeached for
having elected him.” Obamaholics
He goes on to say:
“Even when we realized this
president was incompetent,” he writes, “we
were in denial about our own incompetence as voters.”
It’s Official—Biden is
on the ticket
BHO has tweeted out that Biden is on the
ticket ending all the rumors that he was going to be replaced. So now Joe can go down to defeat in November
with the President. Barack and Joe
Why Obama can’t win
Real median annual household income fell to $53,508
from $54,916 during the 18-month recession from December 2007 to June 2009,
according to the firm’s study of income data for the 36-month period ended in June 2012. Incomes kept falling during the
36-month period since then, dropping to $50,964 in June 2012. Incomes have dropped by over $2500 during the Obama “recovery.” This is the reason Obama doesn’t talk about
the state of the economy and why he can’t win.
Household income
This
really contradicts Obama’s statement, “We’ve tried our plan, and it worked.”
The Gods are favoring
the Democrats?
Democratic representative Danny Davis
commented on Tropical Storm Isaac heading for the GOP convention, saying, “Well, it means that the gods are favoring
Democrats.” Of course it could mean
the gods are favoring the Republicans
keeping down the protesters and perhaps keeping Joe Biden from making a
fool of himself at the Republican Convention (we know he will make a fool of himself at the Democratic Convention).
What Branch of Service are the Seals in?
Barack Obama: ‘I'd advise that you talk to General McRaven, who's in charge of our
Special Ops. I think he has a point of view in terms of how deeply I care
about what these folks do each and every day to protect our freedom.’
The
problem here is that General McRaven is actually Admiral McRaven. (Will someone tell the President that the
Seals are in the Navy?).
Murder in Sweden
So what do
you get for murdering 77 people in
the liberals favorite nation of Sweden? 10
to 21 years is what Anders Breivik got which means he got
between 46 and 99 days per murder. That would mean that James Holmes would get
out of prison after 3.5 years if he got the Swedish maximum per murder for his
rampage in the Aurora movie theater.
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