Friday, August 24, 2012

What the polls say today

Today’s Thoughts

Report:  Obama's Jobs Council chief, GM CEO Jeff Immelt, says he will vote for Romney.

Do liberals believe that money corrupts politics unless the money is given to them and their intentions somehow purify money?  It appears so. 

Lie of the Day
Goes to Debbie Wasserman Schultz who went on with Anderson Cooper and was shredded for suggesting Mitt Romney is against abortion in the case of rape, incest and the life of the mother.  Listening to this makes you almost feel sorry for DWS.  As she is over and over challenged by Mr. Cooper she falls back to “the bottom line is.”  The actual bottom line is that DWS is lying and lying seems to be part of her job as the DNC Chairwoman.  

Fox Poll:  Romney/Ryan takes the lead

The latest Fox News Poll has Romney/Ryan taking the lead.  It’s being presented as if it is a huge change in the first poll after Romney picked Paul Ryan.   Is this election very close and is it in flux?  The answer is a surprising no.
This was the first Fox Poll with likely voters.  Part of the change from the last poll is attributed to it.  What surprises me is how stable the actual numbers are.  For job approval, Obama’s current numbers among likely voters is 46% approval and 50% disapproval.  Among registered voters this is 46% approval and 48% disapproval.  The August 5-7 had Obama 49% to 46%.  So the change between registered and likely voters is 2% more disapproval and from early August to now is 5%.  Can we attribute that 2% difference (among registered voters) as due to Ryan or is it just noise?

Now comes the real difference between the polls in early August and today.  In early August among registered voters Fox sampled 44% Democrats to 35% Republicans a spread of 9%.  Remember the overall results had Obama ahead by 9%.  This time among registered voters Fox sampled 42% Democrats and 35% Republicans a 7% edge for the Democrats.  This time Obama was only ahead by 2 points (44-42 percent) among registered voters.  If you were looking for a Ryan bump you could make a case that this is it.
But among likely voters that 7 point spread was slashed to 4% with the Democrats being 42% to the Republicans 38%.  With that change Romney ended up leading 45% to 44%.  

I have said that Romney is likely ahead by 5% and have said this for the past month.  I have said this because the polls continue to oversample Democrats.  This election is extremely tight according to this latest poll only if you expect that 4% more Democrats will come to the polls than Republicans.  But if you take the polls this month from multiple sources and correct them to have equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans you find a consistent 4-6 percent lead for Romney.  In view of the enthusiasm of the Republicans (a plus 10% edge over the Democrats), it is hardly likely that the Democrats will do better than match the Republicans in voting.  If the election is like 2010 these numbers should be equal which adds 4% to Romney/Ryan’s totals.  
But in reality they are even further ahead than that.  This poll gave the Republicans a 10% lead among independents with 25% of them being undecided.  This amounts to 4% of the electorate that is up for grabs.  This part of the electorate is likely to go heavily to Romney/Ryan as the undecided break heavily for the challenger in this kind of a race.  So if they break 3% to 1% here’s what it means.  The actual numbers are 47% Romney to 42% Obama (equalizing Democrats and Republicans in the poll).  Add 3% to Romney and 1% to Obama and you have it 50% to 43%.  Take 2% for third party candidates and split the 5% that is left equally between Romney and Obama and the final numbers at 52.5% Romney Ryan to 44.5% Obama/Biden.  

Here’s the bottom line.  This election isn’t close.  Romney/Ryan is comfortably ahead and the numbers are remarkably stable.  We’ve seen wild fluctuations in the polls primarily because they over sample Democrats and vary greatly in how they do that.  This poll shows you a 2-3 percent Democratic advantage when you use registered voters rather than likely voters.   I will be keeping an eye on the polls and keeping you informed to what I see.  

This can change, but right now there is no reason to expect that it will.  Obama spent a lot of time and money trying to slime Romney these past three months, but the fact remains the economy stinks and this is the overriding factor in the election.  In the final 74 days of the election cycle, we don’t expect the economy to suddenly get better and Romney will have more money than Obama will to get his message out with.  

Here’s a link to see the demographics I’ve talked about here.  

What are the Candidates plans for the future?

President Obama is trying to make this election a choice between stability and change.  He’s the stability and Romney is the change.  He’s also done everything he can to make that “change” seem scary.  Yet the real election is radical leftist change which Obama won’t talk about and Romney’s programs that you will hear about.  Stability or change 

For All Obamaholics

There’s a new book out for Obamaholics.  In it the Author Craig T says: “I’m an Obamaholic. Welcome to what Alcoholics Anonymous would call a ‘meeting in print.’ We’re here to admit to each other and to ourselves that the Obama presidency isn’t Obama’s  fault — it’s ours. We should be impeached for having elected him.”  Obamaholics

He goes on to say:  Even when we realized this president was incompetent,” he writes, “we were in denial about our own incompetence as voters.”

It’s Official—Biden is on the ticket

BHO has tweeted out that Biden is on the ticket ending all the rumors that he was going to be replaced.  So now Joe can go down to defeat in November with the President.  Barack and Joe

Why Obama can’t win

Real median annual household income fell to $53,508 from $54,916 during the 18-month recession from December 2007 to June 2009, according to the firm’s study of income data for the 36-month period ended in June 2012. Incomes kept falling during the 36-month period since then, dropping to $50,964 in June 2012.  Incomes have dropped by over $2500 during the Obama “recovery.”  This is the reason Obama doesn’t talk about the state of the economy and why he can’t win.  Household income

This really contradicts Obama’s statement, We’ve tried our plan, and it worked.”

The Gods are favoring the Democrats?

Democratic representative Danny Davis commented on Tropical Storm Isaac heading for the GOP convention, saying, “Well, it means that the gods are favoring Democrats.”  Of course it could mean the gods are favoring the Republicans keeping down the protesters and perhaps keeping Joe Biden from making a fool of himself at the Republican Convention (we know he will make a fool of himself at the Democratic Convention).

What Branch of Service are the Seals in? 

Barack Obama: ‘I'd advise that you talk to General McRaven, who's in charge of our Special Ops. I think he has a point of view in terms of how deeply I care about what these folks do each and every day to protect our freedom.’  

The problem here is that General McRaven is actually Admiral McRaven.  (Will someone tell the President that the Seals are in the Navy?). 

Murder in Sweden

So what do you get for murdering 77 people in the liberals favorite nation of Sweden?  10 to 21 years is what Anders Breivik got which means he got between 46 and 99 days per murder.  That would mean that James Holmes would get out of prison after 3.5 years if he got the Swedish maximum per murder for his rampage in the Aurora movie theater. 

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