Monday, August 27, 2012

Why the election is basically over

Obama’s campaign:  Why the election is really over

Everyone seems to be saying that this election is too close to call and right now Obama is slightly ahead.  Nonsense.  First, Obama is not slightly ahead.  The polls that show Obama with a slight lead, over sample Democrats.  In 2008, 6% more Democrats voted than Republicans and independents voted for Obama with a 7% edge. 

In today’s polls we find the Republicans with an 10% lead among independents (a 17% swing) which means the oversampling of Democrats is significant.  

In 2010, the number of Democrats and Republicans who voted was even.  It was the lead among independents that swept the Republicans into control of the House and the Republicans actually won a greater percentage of the Senate races than they did the House.  Obama desperately needs his base to turn out and to somehow turn the independents his way.  

Obama knows he can’t win on his record.  His strategy comes down to “kill Romney.”  After three months of heavy advertisement, that plan hasn’t worked.  Romney isn’t dead and in fact if you correct for the oversampling of Democrats he’s ahead by about 5%.  

Obama will continue to barrage the airwaves with negative ads.  Why will he do this when it hasn’t worked so far?  If you’ve ever seen the movie “An Officer and a Gentleman,” you may remember the scene where the gunnery sergeant is trying to get Zack Mayo to DOR (drop on request).  He spends the weekend hazing Richard Gere’s character and keeps telling him he wants his DOR.  Zack keeps saying “No.”  Finally he asks why he doesn’t take the easy way out and Maya says, “I’ve got nowhere else to go.”  Obama and the Democrats are in the same position that Zack Mayo was in.  They have nowhere else to go but negative.  

But the Democrats won’t have the airwaves to themselves like they did in 2008.  Romney has more money than Obama has and the SuperPacs for the Republicans have much more money than the SuperPaks and the Unions do for the Democrats. 

It won’t work.  Basically history shows you that economics in politics is destiny.  Carter was bound to lose because of the inflation, unemployment (7.5%), etc.  Bush 41 also lost because unemployment was 7.4 percent at the time of the 1992 election.  In addition to 8.3% unemployment, Obama has had nothing but trillion dollar deficits since coming into office, huge losses in family wealth, and enormous increases of people on food stamps and welfare. 

The War on Women

The Democrats are trying to highlight what they call the "Republican war on women"  at their convention.  Having Sandra Fluke talk to remind women their greatest achievement, requiring even religious institutions to provide free birth control thus saving women $9 per month.  But the Democrats are hoping that the fact that over 90% of the jobs lost during Obama’s term were women’s jobs and having Bill Clinton and Caroline Kennedy talk doesn’t remind the women how the Kennedy men and President Clinton treated women.  And of course defending abortion with no restrictions defends abortion for sex selection with baby girls being the target of most of those abortions.   

Neil Armstrong dies

Neil Armstrong, the first man to walk on the moon, died Saturday, weeks after heart surgery and days after his 82nd birthday.  I remember watching him step on the moon. 

Obama’s Plans for a Second Term

Barack Obama has great plans for his second term: to bring his golf handicap down to single digits and finally beat the pants off John Boehner. Obama loves to delegate the more tedious components of his duties (i.e., work)

The Democratic Playbook

Isn't it straight out of the Democratic playbook to start with a kernel of truth about an opponent's views on economics and go off on a riff, extrapolating wildly and conjuring up an insinuation that Republicans want to bring back slavery?

Obama’s new Normal

Many of those at Obama's events - like many people across the country - are not listening to him…. A number of those attending seemed only to want to get a picture of themselves with Obama speaking in the background.  Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Has Obama given up?

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney accused President Obama on Saturday of giving up on trying to fix the economy, saying he had "admitted defeat."  Romney went on to say a real leader finds a way to try even harder when things look bad. 

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