What’s New Today
Story # 1 tells of a Colorado Polysci Prof who has correctly predicted the 8 presidential elections. Obama will lose according to him. #2 is an ad for Mia Love, a rising star in the Republican party. #3 tells of a new CBO report on a disaster looming. #4 also relates to the problem. It seems the Democrats are willing to live with your pain. #5 is about the Paul Ryan difference. #6 tells the story of how the election is slipping away from Obama. #7 points out the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans.
Obama’s campaign has spent $325 million so far in his bid for reelection. At this point in 2004 W. had spent $204 million. The Romney campaign has spent 165 million. It’s no wonder the Obama campaign is in Panic mode. They’ve spent twice as much as Romney and Romney now has over $50 million more than Obama does in the bank. What happens when Romney starts to outspend him?
“An Oklahoma City kindergartner was forced to turn his University of Michigan shirt inside out last week because it violated a city ban on any apparel not supportive of the state’s college teams.” This is a simple example of government tyranny. It’s petty and stupid, but it’s the law.
Joe Biden: “I’ve known eight presidents and three of them intimately.” Well he did call for gay marriage before Obama had evolved enough.
Sandra Fluke is going to be a speaker at the Democratic National Convention. As far as I can tell her main qualification for this is that she has a uterus.
Lie of the Day
Obama Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter: "Over the past, you know, 27 months, we've created 4.5 million private sector jobs; that's more jobs than in the Bush recovery, in the Reagan recovery..."
The problem with this claim is that during that same time period, Reagan created 9.8 million jobs with a smaller population and economy. If you correct for that it would be approximately 12 million jobs. And Bush created 4.8 million jobs.
1. Signs of Desperation—Political Scientist sees Obama loss
An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the frontrunner, with voters in Colorado helping the presumptive Republican nominee unseat President Barack Obama.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers, of CU's Boulder campus, and Michael Berry, of CU's Denver campus, found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president's re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.
The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.
While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared to 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.
The economy is a main driver in elections, said Bickers, who also runs the "CU in DC" internship program.
"If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win," Bickers said. "But the economy is below average, and he is struggling."
Bickers said this election cycle has some parallels with 1980 -- a period when the economy was slumping and inflation was skyrocketing -- and voters chose Republican Ronald Reagan over Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter.
In Colorado, which turned blue for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama's 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.
This shouldn’t be a surprise if you read history. I think Ryan is a boost to Romney, but the economy dictates a Romney win regardless.
2. Mia Love: A Republican Young Gun’s Ad
She’s a candidate for the House and a rising star in the Republican Party. It seems our women politicians have an actual record of success as they climb the ladder.
3. CBO: Disaster Ahead—Obama refuses to do anything
The nation would be plunged into a deep recession during the first half of next year if Congress fails to avert nearly $500 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts set to hit in January, congressional budget analysts said Wednesday.
The massive round of New Year’s belt-tightening — variously known as the fiscal cliff or Taxmageddon — would disrupt recent economic progress, push the unemployment rate back up to 9.1 percent by the end of 2013 and cause economic conditions “that will probably be considered a recession,” the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said.
Obama is pushing on the accelerator as we speed toward the fiscal cliff. I think he’s not only willing for this to happen, but if he’s going to lose wants it to happen.
4. Democrats willing to live with your pain
The Congressional Budget Office released its Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 today, showing that if Congress and President Obama do nothing to stop Taxmageddon and the sequester unemployment will rise to 9/1 percent next year.
Sounds bad right? But guess what? This is the preferred plan of a growing number of Democrats.
Former-Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, NY Times Executive Editor Bill Keller, former-Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray have all advocated forcing the Unites States economy off the fiscal cliff just so Democrats can tell their constituents they raised taxes on the rich.
Even President Obama has expressed a willingness to take the fiscal jump. The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza reports that unlike 2010 and 2011, Obama is prepared to follow through on his threat to let taxes go up after he no longer has to face voters ever again: “Several White House officials I talked to made it clear that if a deal, or at least the framework of a deal, is not reached before December 31st Obama would allow all the Bush tax cuts to expire – a tactic that would achieve huge deficit reduction, but in a particularly painful and ill-conceived fashion.”
The Bush tax cuts removed about 22% of the electorate from paying income taxes. Obama is willing to impose taxes on them so he can say he’s taxing the wealthy. The Democrats apparently are reenacting the Biblical story of the Wisdom of Solomon sans the wisdom. If you want to know who is really looking out for the middleclass see who is not willing to cut the baby in half.
5. Democrats target Ryan
The more voters learn about Congressman Paul Ryan's leadership style and his thoughtful and creative approach to solving problems, the more they will decide that the Romney-Ryan ticket looks presidential and electable. That's why there has been a coordinated effort in recent days to ramp up not just the "Mediscare" rhetoric against Mr. Ryan, but to depict him as a partisan ideologue who was instrumental in derailing a grand bargain on the deficit. This line of attack is cynical and, most of all, false.
First, Paul Ryan didn't force President Obama to abandon the budget recommendations of his own 2010 deficit commission, known as Bowles-Simpson. Mr. Obama's decision to punt on deficit reduction—and then to ridicule Mr. Ryan's plan to address the deficit—offended and disappointed Republicans and Democrats alike.
For example, Erskine Bowles, President Clinton's former chief of staff and the co-chairman of the Bowles-Simpson commission, described the Ryan budget that passed the House in March as "sensible, straightforward, honest, [and] serious." About President's Obama's budget, which failed in the Senate in May by a vote of 97 to zero, Mr. Bowles said, "I don't think anybody took that budget very seriously."
Second, even though I served on the president's debt commission and supported its recommendations, I recognize that we already have a debt commission. It's called Congress. No one in Congress has done more to offer specific solutions to our fiscal challenges than Paul Ryan. He also has demonstrated the rarest and most important trait in politics—moral courage…
With the federal government voting “present” over and over again regarding the looming financial disaster, Paul Ryan stands out as someone who actually would and could save us all. The Democrats attack because they can’t defend. They build themselves up by trying to tear others down. They are the party of mudslinging, hate mongering, and lies.
Liberal television networks and newspapers won’t tell you this, but the election is gradually slipping away from President Obama. As the latest Gallup poll reports this week, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has pulled ahead nationally by 2 points. According to the Associated Press, Mitt is ahead with the all-important independent voter by a sizable margin of 41 percent to 30 percent. In a year when the election is all about the economy, stupid, support for the president’s economic policies and handling of deficits is in the 30s. With high unemployment and the economy going nowhere, it would be historically unprecedented for Mr. Obama to be reelected in November.
The former Massachusetts governor got a boost after naming Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, with the pair now leading in the congressman’s very blue home state of Wisconsin. In the 72 hours after Mr. Ryan was tapped, the GOP ticket raised an impressive $7.4 million. The Badger State has gone for Democrats in the last six presidential elections dating to 1988, and cheeseheads gave Mr. Obama a massive 14-point victory against Sen. John McCain in 2008. In the 2010 midterm, however, two statewide offices - governor and U.S. senator - went Republican, and conservative Gov. Scott Walker beat back a serious union-funded recall drive by a comfortable 7 points just two months ago.
Wisconsin going to the elephants is very bad news for Barack. It signals that blue-collar, Rustbelt states like Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play and is consistent with a gradual shift in momentum toward Mr. Romney in other key battlegrounds. Mr. Romney is winning in Florida and tied or within the margin of error in Colorado, Virginia and Ohio….
7. Difference between Democrats and Republicans
While obviously nothing good ever comes of a disturbing comment like Rep. Todd Akin of Missouri made on Sunday regarding rape with its abortion implications, the controversy surrounding his ill-spoken comment shows a stark and interesting contrast between the Republicans and Democrats in current – as well as in historical – times.
After Rep. Akin made his remarks on Sunday stating that there are “legitimate” rapes suggesting that there are different types of rape, the first of the strong denouncements came from fellow-Republicans who immediately called for the representative to remove his name from the upcoming election ballot in Missouri. These strong suggestions came from the likes of the currently-most-influential Republican in the land, GOP presidential nominee-to-be Mitt Romney.
The denouncements of Akin came swiftly, loudly, and with dramatic force from the Republicans. They want Akin and his ill-spoken words out of the upcoming senatorial race, out of their Party, and out of the nation’s politics all together.
Imagine that. A politician does something wrong and the “good ole boys” – and “girls” – in politics don’t try to “explain” what the politician meant, “re-explain” what the politician meant, or even apologize for what was said.
Politicians’ horrendous words and horrific actions have become much too common in American politics. Far too often, politicians – primarily Democratic politicians – line up to defend the wrongdoings of a politician who has done wrong.
The most extreme example of Democrats supporting a failed politician recently was in Chicago this past spring when Illinois and Chicago Democratic politicians continued to support a Democratic candidate, Rep. Derrick Smith, who ultimately won his Illinois state representative’s seat just days after allegedly being caught ‘red-handed’ in a recorded incident in which he accepted a bribe – though the representative still denies doing anything wrong and is running for office again. A Democrat who took $7,000 in bribes a week before an election was still supported by the Democratic politicians – and the supportive politicians then got the electorate to blindly vote for the alleged crook. Unbelievable….
And while that example is powerful, it isn’t the only one. Look at Ted Kennedy, Joe Baca, Barney Frank, Jesse Jackson Jr., Alan B. Mollohan, John Murtha, Pete Visclosky, Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters to name a few.