What the polls say today

Today’s Thoughts

Report:  Obama's Jobs Council chief, GM CEO Jeff Immelt, says he will vote for Romney.

Do liberals believe that money corrupts politics unless the money is given to them and their intentions somehow purify money?  It appears so. 

Lie of the Day

Goes to Debbie Wasserman Schultz who went on with Anderson Cooper and was shredded for suggesting Mitt Romney is against abortion in the case of rape, incest and the life of the mother.  Listening to this makes you almost feel sorry for DWS.  As she is over and over challenged by Mr. Cooper she falls back to “the bottom line is.”  The actual bottom line is that DWS is lying and lying seems to be part of her job as the DNC Chairwoman.  

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2012/08/24/anderson_cooper_shreds_dws_for_lying_about_romney_abortion_position

Fox Poll:  Romney/Ryan takes the lead

The latest Fox News Poll has Romney/Ryan taking the lead.  It’s being presented as if it is a huge change in the first poll after Romney picked Paul Ryan.   Is this election very close and is it in flux?  The answer is a surprising no.

 

This was the first Fox Poll with likely voters.  Part of the change from the last poll is attributed to it.  What surprises me is how stable the actual numbers are.  For job approval, Obama’s current numbers among likely voters is 46% approval and 50% disapproval.  Among registered voters this is 46% approval and 48% disapproval.  The August 5-7 had Obama 49% to 46%.  So the change between registered and likely voters is 2% more disapproval and from early August to now is 5%.  Can we attribute that 2% difference (among registered voters) as due to Ryan or is it just noise?

Now comes the real difference between the polls in early August and today.  In early August among registered voters Fox sampled 44% Democrats to 35% Republicans a spread of 9%.  Remember the overall results had Obama ahead by 9%.  This time among registered voters Fox sampled 42% Democrats and 35% Republicans a 7% edge for the Democrats.  This time Obama was only ahead by 2 points (44-42 percent) among registered voters.  If you were looking for a Ryan bump you could make a case that this is it.

But among likely voters that 7 point spread was slashed to 4% with the Democrats being 42% to the Republicans 38%.  With that change Romney ended up leading 45% to 44%.  

I have said that Romney is likely ahead by 5% and have said this for the past month.  I have said this because the polls continue to oversample Democrats.  This election is extremely tight according to this latest poll only if you expect that 4% more Democrats will come to the polls than Republicans.  But if you take the polls this month from multiple sources and correct them to have equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans you find a consistent 4-6 percent lead for Romney.  In view of the enthusiasm of the Republicans (a plus 10% edge over the Democrats), it is hardly likely that the Democrats will do better than match the Republicans in voting.  If the election is like 2010 these numbers should be equal which adds 4% to Romney/Ryan’s totals.  

 

But in reality they are even further ahead than that.  This poll gave the Republicans a 10% lead among independents with 25% of them being undecided.  This amounts to 4% of the electorate that is up for grabs.  This part of the electorate is likely to go heavily to Romney/Ryan as the undecided break heavily for the challenger in this kind of a race.  So if they break 3% to 1% here’s what it means.  The actual numbers are 47% Romney to 42% Obama (equalizing Democrats and Republicans in the poll).  Add 3% to Romney and 1% to Obama and you have it 50% to 43%.  Take 2% for third party candidates and split the 5% that is left equally between Romney and Obama and the final numbers at 52.5% Romney Ryan to 44.5% Obama/Biden.  

Here’s the bottom line.  This election isn’t close.  Romney/Ryan is comfortably ahead and the numbers are remarkably stable.  We’ve seen wild fluctuations in the polls primarily because they over sample Democrats and vary greatly in how they do that.  This poll shows you a 2-3 percent Democratic advantage when you use registered voters rather than likely voters.   I will be keeping an eye on the polls and keeping you informed to what I see.  

This can change, but right now there is no reason to expect that it will.  Obama spent a lot of time and money trying to slime Romney these past three months, but the fact remains the economy stinks and this is the overriding factor in the election.  In the final 74 days of the election cycle, we don’t expect the economy to suddenly get better and Romney will have more money than Obama will to get his message out with.  

Here’s a link to see the demographics I’ve talked about here.  

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/23/fox-news-poll-race-for-white-house-tightens/

What are the Candidates plans for the future?

President Obama is trying to make this election a choice between stability and change.  He’s the stability and Romney is the change.  He’s also done everything he can to make that “change” seem scary.  Yet the real election is radical leftist change which Obama won’t talk about and Romney’s programs that you will hear about.  Stability or change 

For All Obamaholics

There’s a new book out for Obamaholics.  In it the Author Craig T says: “I’m an Obamaholic. Welcome to what Alcoholics Anonymous would call a ‘meeting in print.’ We’re here to admit to each other and to ourselves that the Obama presidency isn’t Obama’s  fault — it’s ours. We should be impeached for having elected him.”  Obamaholics

He goes on to say:  “Even when we realized this president was incompetent,” he writes, “we were in denial about our own incompetence as voters.”

It’s Official—Biden is on the ticket

BHO has tweeted out that Biden is on the ticket ending all the rumors that he was going to be replaced.  So now Joe can go down to defeat in November with the President.  Barack and Joe

Why Obama can’t win

Real median annual household income fell to $53,508 from $54,916 during the 18-month recession from December 2007 to June 2009, according to the firm’s study of income data for the 36-month period ended in June 2012. Incomes kept falling during the 36-month period since then, dropping to $50,964 in June 2012.  Incomes have dropped by over $2500 during the Obama “recovery.”  This is the reason Obama doesn’t talk about the state of the economy and why he can’t win.  Household income

This really contradicts Obama’s statement, “We’ve tried our plan, and it worked.”

The Gods are favoring the Democrats?

Democratic representative Danny Davis commented on Tropical Storm Isaac heading for the GOP convention, saying, “Well, it means that the gods are favoring Democrats.”  Of course it could mean the gods are favoring the Republicans keeping down the protesters and perhaps keeping Joe Biden from making a fool of himself at the Republican Convention (we know he will make a fool of himself at the Democratic Convention).

What Branch of Service are the Seals in? 

Barack Obama: ‘I'd advise that you talk to General McRaven, who's in charge of our Special Ops. I think he has a point of view in terms of how deeply I care about what these folks do each and every day to protect our freedom.’  

The problem here is that General McRaven is actually Admiral McRaven.  (Will someone tell the President that the Seals are in the Navy?). 

Murder in Sweden

So what do you get for murdering 77 people in the liberals favorite nation of Sweden?  10 to 21 years is what Anders Breivik got which means he got between 46 and 99 days per murder.  That would mean that James Holmes would get out of prison after 3.5 years if he got the Swedish maximum per murder for his rampage in the Aurora movie theater. 

http://theforeigner.no/pages/news/the-anders-behring-breivik-verdict-accountable/

Income drops as does housing

What’s new Today 

Story #1 tells of the loss of household income under Obama. #2 shows housing in March dropped by over 7%.  #3 and #4 are videos.  #3 is an anti-Obama ad.  #4 is a CNN anchor calling the Democrats out for trying to blame everything on Bush.  #5 has Victor David Hanson reflect on the left.  #6 is a reprint of a story printed in 1932 before Hitler took power and looking at his philosophy.  Was it leftist or rightwing?  #7 tells us of how drones are moving out of strictly a military role into more a part of civilization in America. 

Today’s thoughts

When Donna Brazile said Obama couldn’t bring the price of gas down, George Will asked “Well, if he can stop the seas from rising, why can't he bring down gas prices?”

With the current scandal in GSA and the Secret Service, people are forgetting NOAA.  They have inflicted over 100 million dollars in fines on fishermen.  Only $60 million is accounted for.

It appears Obama plans to delay the gutting of the Medicare Advantage Program by one year.  Obama has decided that doing this right before the election is not a good idea.  I think that’s what he meant when he told the Russians after this election he would have more flexibility. 

Once again the Rasmussen Poll shows Obama with 44% favoring him vs Romney’s 48% in the coming election.  This number shows up in a lot of polls and seems to be an indicator of what he can expect in the fall. 

1.  Income Losses under Obama

Mitt Romney has been citing an interesting economic statistic lately about the economy under Barack Obama: “Well, let’s look at what happened. What you’re not going to hear is that during his term median income in America has dropped by $3,000.”  Here he is on “Hannity” repeating the same number.

That’s a pretty striking figure. Is it true? The answer depends somewhat on what numbers you use — there are more and less charitable options available — but the answer is arguably yes.

The Labor Department’s official data on annual household income come from a giant survey called the American Community Survey. The most recent figures available from that survey go through only 2010, unfortunately.

Some economists have tried to estimate this number from a much smaller survey that is conducted each month as part of the jobs report. These numbers are noisy but can still be useful.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, sent us his own quarterly calculations based on this source:..

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/fact-check-income-losses-under-obama/?src=tp

Yesterday we learned 1 out of 2 new college graduates are either under employed or unemployed and now this.  If the elections ends up being about the economy (it will be), Obama is toast. 

2.  More bad news for Obama

Sales of new homes fell in March by the largest amount in more than a year, indicating that the U.S. housing market remains under strain despite some modest signs of improvement.

The Commerce Department says sales dropped 7.1 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 328,000 units. That followed a 7.3 percent increase in sales in February. This figure was revised up from an initial estimate that February sales had fallen 1.6 percent.

The weakness in March could reflect that a warmer-than-normal winter caused sales that normally occur at the start of the spring sales season in March to occur in February.

The median home price was $234,500 in March, down 1 percent from the February sales price

http://www.suntimes.com/business/12103078-420/new-home-sales-off-7-percent-in-march.html

Perhaps this follows the fact the Americans have less money to buy houses with. 

3.  Video: Another Hard Hitting Anti-Obama Ad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFOiOzxVezQ&feature=player_embedded

Facts are a terrible thing if you happened to be a liberal. 

4.  Video: CNN Anchor Turns on Obama:  Tells the Truth

http://nation.foxnews.com/don-lemon/2012/04/24/wow-cnn-anchor-turns-obama

I think he hit the nail on the head.  The Democrat strategy (blame Bush) won’t work this election cycle.  It was already used four years ago.   And it appears the lefties are all over the internet complaining about Lemon.  We know that the left is more vindictive than the right and less open minded. 

5.  Some interesting thoughts by Victor David Hanson

…But, of course, the Obama (who attacked each and every element of the war on terror as a legislator and senator) Left never had any principled objection at all. Instead, whatever Bush was for, they were in Pavlovian fashion against. I can say that without a charge of cynicism, because after January 2009, Obama embraced or expanded every Bush-Cheney protocol that he inherited. In response, the anti-war Left simply kept silent, or indeed vanished, or went to work extending the anti-terrorism agenda. Guantanamo Bay, in other words, was a national sin until the mid-morning of January 20, 2009….

… What is going on? Two things, really. One, the media believes that the noble ends justify the tawdry means. So if it is a choice between emphasizing the latest Obama embarrassment by digging into the scary Fast and Furious, the “millions of green jobs” Solyndra insider giveaways, the Secret Service decadence, the GSA buffoonery, and the work while getting food stamps con in Washington OR endangering Obamacare and by extension “the children,” or the war to eliminate autism, or the right to breath clean air–well, why would one ever wish to derail all that by weakening a landmark progressive and his enlightened agenda?

Or for you more cynical readers, why would you wish to enervate the present comfortable culture in Washington in which the press and politics are at last one? Or why undermine the first African-American president, who is a constant reminder of our progressive advancement? Or why weaken our only chance someday to have open borders or gay marriage?

Two, the Left has always operated on the theory of medieval penance. We surely must assume that Warren Buffett has never had problems with the ethics of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. or had a company he controls sued by the IRS for back taxes. Why? Because he has confessed his sins, and accepted the faith and paid his tithe to the Church. Ditto a Bill Gates or a rich celebrity like Sean Penn or Oprah. In the relativism of the left, if the one-percenters will simply confess that their class is greedy and needs to pay their fair share—even if they are entirely cynical in the manner of GE’s Jeffrey Immelt and penance is written off as the cost of doing business—then they become exempt from the wages of them/us warfare and the “you want to kill the children” rhetoric.

http://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/it-was-the-power-stupid/

VDH forgot the way they passed Obamacare when he was talking about tawdry means.  Between the Cornhusker Kickback, the Louisiana Purchase, the Florida exemption from eliminating Medicare Advantage, and the 300 plus exemptions from Obamacare you have an Administration deep into corruption and a press deep into denial. 

6.  Hitler a man of the left in 1932

In 1932, Hitler had not yet taken power in Germany. But he was close.

What would happen to Germany if the Nazis were to rule? That was a question that had a surprisingly easy answer. In the March issue of The Atlantic, Nicolas Fairweather wrote "Hitler and Hitlerism: A Man of Destiny." In it, he analyzed Hitler and his philosophy, as derived from a reading of Mein Kampf, "to foreshadow, from [Hitler's] own statements, some of the things he would like to accomplish." Journalists, at times, can be horrible predictors of the future. But in this case, Fairweather's assessment was a sound alarm. He summarizes Hitler in 10 points:

1. His violent racial nationalism, which springs from his conviction that the Aryan stocks in general, and the Germans in particular, are a chosen people in whose victorious survival the divine purposes are bound up.

2. His violent animosity to Marxian Socialism as in essence opposed to his ideal of a nationally minded people and a racial state. ...

3. His violent hatred of the Jews as the racial enemies of all Aryans, the subtle corrupters of pure Aryan states. These parasites, says Hitler, have made Marxian Socialism, which they invented, the principal tool by which they insinuate themselves into healthy, pure blooded, racial states in order to debase simultaneously the national ideals and the national blood. Destroyers of Aryan civilizations, they remain impotent to create a civilization of their own.

4. His concern for social betterment ('true Socialism') as a necessary prerequisite to the acceptance of his ideals by the masses.

5. His contempt for the intelligence of the ordinary man and for a democracy based on faith in his development to higher levels.

6. His contempt for parliamentary institutions as the organs of such a democracy, which substitutes for the decision of a competent leader the majority vote of the incompetent. A parliament, moreover, says Hitler, is the natural field of operations for the Jewish Socialist enemy.

7. His insistence on the power of personality and on the entire concentration of authority in the hands of one leader (up to now, himself).

8. His economic nationalism, with its distrust of international capital and its preference for small, locally controlled business organizations. Hitler fears the banks and all newfangled ideas for controlling credit. He objects to stock companies and stresses the value of personal ownership. In short, he believes in the ruthless subordination of economic interests and economic leaders to racial and national considerations.

9. His insistence that Germany must acquire more land in Europe as a vital requirement for national expansion and progress (after the present corruption of the national blood and the national ideals has been stopped).

10. His insistence that France is the archenemy. France, he urges, must be broken before Germany can undertake to conquer land from Russia (the only possible source).

Fairweather assesses Hitler as a man completely obsessed with the idea of German purity and domination. Hitler ignores "the unwholesome after-effects of a diet of lies" and "is deliberately building upon the weakness of the mass mind." Fairweather calls the aspiring dictator "a genuine demagogue -- honest, no doubt, in believing that what he does is for the general good, but a demagogue just the same."

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/10-things-you-should-know-about-hitler-predictions-from-1932/256114/#.T5J_eXhOKw0.twitter

This is always a fun subject to talk to leftists about.  They are adamant that Hitler was a conservative as was the Nazi’s movement.  The problem is that it isn’t true.  Both Hitler and Stalin were leftist. 

7.  Is there a Drone in your Neighborhood?

There are at least 63 active drone sites around the U.S, federal authorities have been forced to reveal following a landmark Freedom of Information lawsuit.

The unmanned planes – some of which may have been designed to kill terror suspects – are being launched from locations in 20 states.

Most of the active drones are deployed from military installations, enforcement agencies and border patrol teams, according to the Federal Aviation Authority.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2134376/Is-drone-neighbourhood-Rise-killer-spy-planes-exposed-FAA-forced-reveal-63-launch-sites-U-S.html#ixzz1syR4MVo8

Here in Colorado the University of Colorado has their own drone.