Whose to Blame?

It’s interesting to watch was it being said online. This past summer I saw more and more generic polling indicating the Republicans were way ahead of the Democrats. I’m now seeing more and more articles trying to determine what happened to the Democrats and who’s to blame for what looks like will be happening in November.

Occasionally you see article talking about how it might not be so bad for the Democrats, but if you are following this closely you know it’s pretty well over for them. What we are really waiting to see is just how big the Republican wave will be. As Michael Barone asked, will it be 1994 again (Democrats lost 54 seats) or 1894 again (Democrats lost 100 seats).

An important fact is that every time there has been a major shift in the House of Representatives, the Senate has also been lost by the ruling party. Not good news for the Democrats in the Senate who figured to sail by this year.

Do we have a tax problem or a spending problem?

According to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data, extending the tax cuts on top earners would create a budget shortfall of $700 billion over ten years. That’s $70 billion a year. Meanwhile, extending the tax cuts on the middle class would create a budget shortfall of $3,000 billion over ten years.

Now, thinking like a government official, this means that extending the tax cuts would “cost” the government $3.7 trillion over ten years. This sounds like a lot of money, but let’s put it in perspective and look at how much the federal government will be spending over the course of the next ten years.

http://www.american.com/archive/2010/october/taxes-and-presidential-math

Hispanic voters may sit this election out

Here's more bad news for the Democrats.

"They show the very same enthusiasm gap. Republican Latinos are more
positive, the Democratic Latinos are more demoralized. How is that different
from anyone else? It isn't," said James G. Gimpel, a government professor at the
University of Maryland who studies voting and immigration policy.

"Rather, they rank education, jobs and health care as their top
three issues of concern for this year's congressional campaign. Immigration
ranks as the fifth most important issue for Latino registered voters," said Mark
Hugo Lopez, associate director of the center and the report's author.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/oct/5/hispanics-not-motivated-2010-election/

Some interesting tidbits, worth the read.

AP-GfK Poll: Working-class whites shun Dems

WASHINGTON – Desperate for jobs and cool toward President Barack Obama,
working-class whites are flocking to Republicans, turning a group long wary of
Democrats into an even bigger impediment to the party's drive to keep control of
Congress.

An Associated Press-GfK poll shows whites without four-year college
degrees preferring GOP candidates by twice the margin of the last two elections,
when Democrats made significant gains in the House and Senate. The poll,
conducted last month, found this group favoring GOP hopefuls 58 percent
to 36 percent — a whopping 22 percentage-point gap.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101006/ap_on_el_ge/us_ap_poll_working_class_whites;

_ylt=Al5hiD9wGEjhvaC9pTRVY8Vp24cA;_ylu=X3oDMTM1dXY0bTdvBGFzc2V0A2FwLz

IwMTAxMDA2L3VzX2FwX3BvbGxfd29ya2luZ19jbGFzc193aGl0ZXMEcG9zAzQEc2Vj

A3luX3BhZ2luYXRlX3N1bW1hcnlfbGlzdARzbGsDYXAtZ2ZrcG9sbHdv

Recently Joe Biden made the charge; this isn’t your father’s GOP. That probably goes double for the Democrat Party. It isn’t the party of the working man anymore.

The Democrats are widening the enthusiasm gap

The Democrats are widening the enthusiasm gap against them by running
exclusively negative campaigns against their insurgent Republican rivals. The
vast proportion of Democratic and allied independent-expenditure media is
negative, portraying Republican congressional candidates as tax evaders, spousal
abusers, mob-linked, eccentric flakes, sexual molesters and absentee
officeholders (all actual charges against key GOP candidates). While these ads
may chip away at the Republican vote share in the polls, they do nothing
to generate a Democratic turnout.

The Democrats are without a theme, a message or a positive reason
to go vote. Negative ads are supposed to depress turnout — the
last thing Democrats need. But when they come up against Republican enthusiasm, they may not do much to check the GOP rise.

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/122819-the-widening-turnout-gap

Why are the Democrats not as enthusiastic as the Republicans

Here’s an interesting look at the lack of Democrat enthusiasm. I noticed at the One Nation Rally that parts of the demonstrators were demonstrating against Obama. This article explains it.

So why are Democrats less enthusiastic? And why has "the progressive
donor base," as Democratic consultant Jim Jordans reports, "stopped writing
checks"?

I don't think it's just because the economy remains sour or that
President Obama failed to jam a public option in the health care bill.

I find a more convincing explanation in an offhand phrase in a
subordinate clause in a brief article by Adam Serwer of the Center for American
Progress on the Washington Post's opinion pages. "There's no question," Serwer
writes, defying anyone to disagree, "that Obama has completely reversed on his
promises to roll back Bush-era national security policies."

For it is not economics but foreign policy that has motivated the
left half of the Democratic Party over the last decade.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Dems-turn-on-Obama-over-Iraq_-Afghanistan_-Gitmo-1121526-104371073.html#ixzz11ZfvtLCW

I also found this article by Victor David Hansen which nicely fits with the article above. Notice what has happened to our foreign policy under President Obama.

But suddenly Barack Obama’s brief tenure has reminded us that, in fact,
almost all the world’s crises arose before the Bush presidency and continued
during and after it. Examine current American foreign policy toward every
region, and one of three general patterns emerges: Either things are no better since the end of 2008, or they are much worse, or the Obama administration has reverted to the Bush way of doing things — despite constant assurances to the world that Bush was at fault, American foreign policy was now reset, and global animosity arose out of past misunderstanding, insensitivity, and American hubris.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/248883/gift-obama%E2%80%99s-foreign-policy-victor-davis-hanson


What went wrong for the Democrats?

This is a pretty interesting article. I highly recommend it.

Obama was elected as the corrective to the Bush years. Yet when you're
the winner, the temptation is always there to see yourself as something more
than just an alternative -- something larger, like a paradigm-changer or a
transformational political figure. And Obama wanted nothing less than a change
from conservatism to his own brand of 21st century activism.

"When you win an election," says political scientist Bill Galston, "you are always
inclined to believe you won for the reasons you wanted to win."

In other words, you believe you won for the big stuff, not just because the voters didn't like the other guy.

...... Maybe he overestimated his personal capacity and appeal. Or his mandate. Or the extent to which the nation is actually divided on both principle and policy. Some, including his own pollster, according to knowledgeable sources, counseled caution. People wanted the president to focus on the economy, some told the president: Don't go for it all now.

But he did, precisely because he was riding high, ready to use his political capital.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/10/06/gloria.borger.sweep/index.html

Private sector sheds 39,000 jobs in September

More disasterous news for the Democrats.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private employers unexpectedly cut 39,000 jobs
in September after an upwardly revised gain of 10,000 in August, a report by a
payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The August figure was originally reported as a loss of 10,000.

The median of estimates from 38 economists surveyed by Reuters for
the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for a rise of 24,000 private-sector jobs in September.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-sector-sheds-39000-rb-1277482169.html?x=0&.v=1

Minnesota Congressional Race Gets Profane

Democratic Minnesota congressional candidate and state Sen. Tarryl Clark
released a provocative video on her campaign Web site today, one including a few
choice words for her opponent, incumbent GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann. The spot's voice-over accuses Bachmann of standing up for "special interests" in Washington and backing BP during the fallout over the Gulf Coast oil spill, while
concluding that she's "not doing @#%! for the people of the Sixth District."
(The presumed expletive is bleeped out.)

This is a sure sign of desperation. You’ll hear more of this as we get closer to November 2.

http://www.newsweek.com/blogs/the-gaggle/2010/10/05/clark-calls-out-bachmann-in-new-campaign-ad.html

Radically Redefining the Airplane

The Brilliant Idea: A cleaner, quieter craft with a radical new design,
setting the stage for a fundamental shift in aviation.

Just an interesting article I thought I would share. It has a mock up of what the plane would look like.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/news/radically-redefining-the-airplane-breakthrough?click=pm_news

One Nation Rally—who was there?

An interesting video.

http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=174&load=4239

Panel: Gov't thwarted worst-case scenario on spill

Incompetence on display

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration blocked efforts by government scientists to tell the public just how bad the Gulf oil spill could become and made other missteps that raised questions about its competence and candor during the crisis, according to a commission appointed by the president to investigate the disaster.

In documents released Wednesday, the national oil spill commission's staff describes "not an incidental public relations problem" by the White House in the wake of the April 20 accident.
Among other things, the report says, the administration made erroneous early estimates of the spill's size, and President Barack Obama's senior energy adviser went on national TV and mischaracterized a government analysis by saying it showed most of the oil was "gone." The analysis actually said it could still be there.

"By initially underestimating the amount of oil flow and then, at the end of the summer, appearing to underestimate the amount of oil remaining in the Gulf, the federal government created the impression that it was either not fully competent to handle the spill or not fully candid with the American people about the scope of the problem," the report says.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gIXWYBTpLtSayJtg41LKXpxSxVPAD9IMDP100?docId=D9IMDP100

42 Days to Go!

Republicans Gain Ground Among Independents

A new comprehensive national survey shows that independent voters—who voted for Barack Obama by a 52%-to-44% margin in the 2008 presidential election—are now moving strongly in the direction of the Republican Party. The survey, conducted by Douglas E. Schoen LLC on behalf of Independent Women's Voice in late August, raises the possibility of a fundamental realignment of independent voters and the dominance of a more conservative electorate.

Today, independents say they lean more toward the Republican Party than the
Democratic Party, 50% to 25%, and that the Republican Party is closer to their
views by 52% to 30%. This movement comes in spite of independents' generally
negative views of the GOP—a majority of independents (54%) view the Republicans unfavorably, compared to 39% who have a favorable impression. (The poll also revealed that 48% of independents were either "sympathetic to or supporters of the tea party.")

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703904304575497762602678210.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

Lots of statistics here basically showing the Democrats have lost the independents vote anyway you look at it. This is one of the big reasons November 2nd will be a nightmare if you are a supporter of Obama and the Democrat Party.

67% of Political Class Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction, 84% of Mainstream Disagrees

Here is an example of why there is so much anger and confusion in the election this year. The political class and the MSM keep talking about how the TEA Party is a negative for the Republicans. Yet poll after poll shows that Independents view the TEA Party favorably and the Republicans are significantly ahead of the Democrats in generic polls. This gap between the elites and the voter should bring about a tsunami this November which may change politics for the next generation.

The gap is just as big when it comes to the traditional right
direction/wrong track polling question.

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 67% of
Political Class voters believe the United States is generally heading in the
right direction. However, things look a lot different to Mainstream Americans.
Among these voters, 84% say the country has gotten off on the wrong
track.

“The American people don’t want to be governed from the left, the right
or the center. The American people want to govern themselves," says Scott
Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “The American attachment to
self-governance runs deep. It is one of our nation’s cherished core values and
an important part of our cultural DNA.”

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2010/67_of_political_class_say_u_s_heading_in_right_direction_84_of_mainstream_disagrees

Federal Pay Still Inflated After Accounting for Skills

From the Heritage Foundation

The Heritage Foundation has conducted two separate studies that both
reach the same conclusion: Federal employees are paid substantially more than
comparably skilled private sector workers. Defenders of the federal pay system,
including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), have mischaracterized
The Heritage Foundation's analyses by suggesting they ignore skill differences
between the public and private sectors, resulting in an "apples to oranges"
comparison. On the contrary, Heritage has carefully accounted for skill
differences, always comparing apples to apples.




While federal employees do earn more partially because they are more
skilled than the average private sector worker, controlling for skills does not
eliminate the federal pay premium. Depending on the methodology employed, the
average federal employee receives as much as 22 percent more in wages than an
equally skilled private sector worker. Including both wages and benefits,
overpaying federal workers costs taxpayers approximately $40–50 billion per
year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703376504575491861627732550.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTSecondBucket

Somehow when I read the story above I’m reminded of Jack Nicolson’s speech in the movie “A Few Good Men.” When he said, “I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide, then question the manner in which I provide it. I prefer you said thank you, and went on your way,” Do you get the feeling that is what the public unions think?

The TEA Party from A to Z

What would we do without the Tea Party? For well over a year, this
rollicking muster of citizens—mocked and feared in equal measure by the
Democrats and, indeed, by many Republicans—have offered more than just
whizz-bang political entertainment. Starting out as a loose-knit posse of loudly
disaffected conservatives, the movement has become better organized and
improbably daring; in fact, it is now a full-blown political uprising. As we gird our national loins for the mid-term elections in November, here is a brisk primer on the movement.

A is for anger, the jet-fuel of a movement that Nancy Pelosi, in a rare moment of wit, pooh-poohed as Astroturf (i.e., not grassroots). …..

B is for Glenn Beck and Andrew Breitbart, the two gaudiest Tea Partiers in the American media, and for Scott Brown, the Massachusetts senator whose astonishing election to Ted Kennedy’s seat in February was the earliest indication that the Tea Party amounted to more than just a rabble …..

Y is for young, which Tea Partiers are not. A NYT
poll found that 75% of Tea Partiers are over 45, 29% over 64, and only 7% under
30 years of age. One thing the movement’s members tend to have in common,
irrespective of age, is a petit-bourgeois fondness for yard signs. My favorite:
“Remember, November 2, 2010: Take Out the Garbage.”

Z is for the zeitgeist, which in our unhappy nation at present happens to mean,
alas—on both left and right—zero tolerance for views with which we
disagree.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-09-18/tea-party-an-a-z-guide-to-a-militant-movement/3/

Kind of a fun read.

The end of the Pelosi Era?

The Washington Post's Paul Kane and Karen Tumulty have a big story this morning about Democrats fleeing the speaker:

Democrats from a number of states, including Texas, Ohio and North Carolina,
are running away from Pelosi in a harsh political climate. Distancing one's self
from the speaker is nothing new for many Democrats, including [Rep. Chet]
Edwards, but the number of incumbents criticizing the party House leader is
larger than it has been in past election cycles—and the volume of their
criticism is louder.More than a few Democrats have said they are wavering on
supporting Pelosi as their leader next year. At least four House Democrats are
running ads stating their opposition to the speaker's agenda, and one Democrat
running in Tennessee called for her resignation.

Everything is going south for the Democrats. Much like Napoleon’s grand armee it appears the Democrats got too ambitious and went too far left. The results for Napoleon was Of the 690,000 men that comprised the initial invasion force of Russia, only 93,000 survived.

http://www.newsweek.com/blogs/the-gaggle/2010/09/20/the-end-of-the-nancy-pelosi-era.html

Don’t the rubes know the recession is over?

WASHINGTON – The longest recession the country has endured since the
Great Depression ended in June 2009, a group that dates the beginning and end of
recessions declared Monday. The NBER, a panel of academic economists based
in Cambridge, Mass., said the recession lasted 18 months. It started in December
2007 and ended in June 2009. Previously the longest post World War II downturns
were those in 1973-1975 and in 1981-1982. Both of those lasted 16 months.


The four quarters since they said the recession ended growth rates


1.6 5.0 3.7 1.6


The four quarter since they said the recession ended growth rates
for Reagan’s recession


0.3 5.1 9.3 8.1

So the recession may be over, but it sure doesn’t feel like it.

Even Chris Matthews knows the difference between a tax cut and a government check.

“I have one small tweak to make to what the president said today -- he
should stop saying that giving people tax cuts is giving people money. It`s
their money! A tax cut is when the government doesn`t take our money. It`s an
important distinction.


He talked today, for example, about people getting a check from the
government in the form of a tax cut. That`s not the way it works. If tax rates
are kept lower, it`s a matter of the check going to the government being
smaller. Again, it`s an important distinction.”

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2010/09/20/matthews-scolds-obama-stop-saying-cutting-taxes-giving-people-money-its-their-money#ixzz109CwBghO