Signs that Romney will win and it
won’t be close
There
is not one person who voted for John McCain last time who will switch and vote
for Obama this time. There are many previous
Obama supporters who plan to vote for Romney. Republicans who stayed home
four years ago rather than vote for McCain are not going to stay home again. Many will vote not because of Romney,
but in spite of Romney. They want no more of Obama and his policies.
Crowd comparisons between Romney
and Obama reveal Obama as a fad whose
time has passed. There is energy and enthusiasm in the Romney
campaign. There is anger and
pettiness in the Obama campaign.
Early
voting suggests a tsunami for Romney, at least when
compared to the corresponding numbers four years ago. Women are breaking
for Romney. States that were never
thought to be in play by pollsters suddenly look even or even trending toward
Romney. Pennsylvania and Michigan are two examples. Nothing is
moving toward Obama. Everything is moving away.
Newspaper
endorsements reflect the mood of their
readers. The Des Moines Register endorsed Romney. Ditto
the NY Daily News and many other papers who
routinely endorse Democrats. Ben Shapiro reports:
According to the
University of California, Santa Barbara American Presidency Project study of
the top 100 newspaper editorial endorsements, Mitt Romney has seen a vast wave of switches from 2008 Obama endorsers.
Obama, meanwhile, has seen only one
newspaper that endorsed John McCain come around to endorse him. At the same
time, many newspapers have also switched from Obama to "no
endorsement."
There
is not one constituency group that reasonably can be seen increasing its
support for Obama. Hardcore Democrat groups
are uninspired. Turnout among them will be lower. Obama will win
these groups by overwhelming majorities, but the groups will be much smaller
this time around.
Doug Ross presented some
interesting results that support my contentions. A survey commissioned by the Washington Post
is the source of these numbers. Mr. Ross's summary included the following
(my emphasis):
Overall, the Post-ABC poll found
that 13
percent of 2008 Obama voters have decided to back Mitt Romney.
Even absurdly-skewed Poll show
Romney tied
The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both.
Romney
has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll,
in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican
ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.
Yet there is something odd--and
even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total
sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41%described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents,
and 30% described themselves as Republicans."
+11 D’s still only get Obama a tie.
More reasons to be bullish
Why do I
think this when the polls continue to forecast a close race? Two reasons.
First, because the air long ago went out of the Obama campaign. “But where,” you ask, “is the data for that? What do
the numbers say?” I have no doubt that data could be assembled and expressed
numerically. But asking for data about
the state of the Obama campaign is like asking for proof that a body lying on
the sidewalk with a stake through its heart is dead. Evidence comes
in many forms, and some of the most compelling forms are bluntly empirical.
(A point that Aristotle noted in the Nicomachean Ethics when
he noted that different subjects admit different levels of precision and that
it is a sign of wisdom to demand only the level of precision which the subject
under discussions requires.) Do you know anyone who
believes the Obama campaign has traction? You don’t need a statistic to issue a death certificate.
The second
reason I predict a handy victory for Romney-Ryan ticket is likewise rudely
empirical. Look at the rallies.
Note the number of “Romney-Ryan” signs, buttons, and insignia you see around —
and note, too, who’s sporting that paraphernalia.
Free Springsteen concert and Obama
pull in 18,000
One of the
more memorable "gulp" moments for Republicans in '04 was the Friday
before Election Day when John Kerry and
Bruce Springsteen brought together a massive crowd of 70,000 to 80,000 in
the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin.
Today, in a
last minute push to get the vote out, the combined power of Barack and the Boss drew only 18,000.
Democrats
are already worried about the early vote counts in Wisconsin. The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free
Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more. On his own,
Springsteen can attract 84,000 paying customers just a few hours away in
Chicago.
Does this suggest John Kerry can pull in 52,000
more people than Barack Obama can?
Does this look like an ad of a
winner?
A New York Conservative tells you
why you should vote
Voting
is an honor. It is a gift. It
may not be a duty, or a responsibility to vote, but it certainly is an opportunity to be counted, to have
one's say, to make one's feelings known -- to
stand up against the liberal dream of silencing all dissent.
The fact of the matter is that
every vote counts. It is a message
sent to those who refuse to hear our voices, because they believe we don't
matter -- unless, of course, we agree with them.
Beyond the polls: Another way to predict the election
A rather obscure university
model has proven to be far more reliable than public polling -- or pretty much
any other model. Developed by two University of Colorado (CU) political science
professors, Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, this analysis method has proven amazingly
accurate at correctly projecting Electoral College results on a state-by-state
basis covering an amazing 30 years and eight presidential elections.
Their most recent analysis, released
October 4th, projects that Romney will receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes (five votes more than
their August prediction). President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208
votes; well short of the 270 needed to retain the presidency.
Amazon picks the winner
It seems more people are reading conservative books than liberal
books by a 59-41 margin.
NY Times: Obama Beat Hoover!
You know your
record as President is abysmal when
supporters are reduced to touting how
much better you’ve done than Herbert Hoover. But that’s where Obama is at,
apparently, as historian Robert McElvaine took to the New York Times a few days
ago to make exactly that case. Seeking to combat unfavorable comparisons to the
pace of recovery under Obama with that of other Presidents, such as Reagan or
Clinton, McElvaine dismissed them all us irrelevant and asserted that the only comparison that matters is between Obama and Hoover. And on that measure, we are told that Obama passes with
flying colors!
Union Leader endorses Romney
Only
Mitt Romney offers a way out of this destructive cycle
It’s up to you
The election is here and you will make the difference.
MSM has dropped the pretense and
openly supports Obama
They aren’t even pretending any more.
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