Monday, November 5, 2012

Election Day 2012

Signs that Romney will win and it won’t be close

There is not one person who voted for John McCain last time who will switch and vote for Obama this time.  There are many previous Obama supporters who plan to vote for Romney.  Republicans who stayed home four years ago rather than vote for McCain are not going to stay home againMany will vote not because of Romney, but in spite of Romney.  They want no more of Obama and his policies.

Crowd comparisons between Romney and Obama reveal Obama as a fad whose time has passed.  There is energy and enthusiasm in the Romney campaign.  There is anger and pettiness in the Obama campaign.

Early voting suggests a tsunami for Romney, at least when compared to the corresponding numbers four years ago.  Women are breaking for Romney.  States that were never thought to be in play by pollsters suddenly look even or even trending toward Romney.  Pennsylvania and Michigan are two examples.  Nothing is moving toward Obama.  Everything is moving away.
Newspaper endorsements reflect the mood of their readers.  The Des Moines Register endorsed Romney.  Ditto the NY Daily News and many other papers who routinely endorse Democrats.  Ben Shapiro reports:

According to the University of California, Santa Barbara American Presidency Project study of the top 100 newspaper editorial endorsements, Mitt Romney has seen a vast wave of switches from 2008 Obama endorsers. Obama, meanwhile, has seen only one newspaper that endorsed John McCain come around to endorse him. At the same time, many newspapers have also switched from Obama to "no endorsement."

There is not one constituency group that reasonably can be seen increasing its support for Obama.  Hardcore Democrat groups are uninspired.  Turnout among them will be lower.  Obama will win these groups by overwhelming majorities, but the groups will be much smaller this time around.
Doug Ross presented some interesting results that support my contentions.  A survey commissioned by the Washington Post is the source of these numbers.  Mr. Ross's summary included the following (my emphasis):

Overall, the Post-ABC poll found that 13 percent of 2008 Obama voters have decided to back Mitt Romney.

Even absurdly-skewed Poll show Romney tied

The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both.

Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.

Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41%described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans." 

+11 D’s still only get Obama a tie. 

More reasons to be bullish

Why do I think this when the polls continue to forecast a close race? Two reasons. First, because the air long ago went out of the Obama campaign. “But where,” you ask, “is the data for that? What do the numbers say?” I have no doubt that data could be assembled and expressed numerically. But asking for data about the state of the Obama campaign is like asking for proof that a body lying on the sidewalk with a stake through its heart is dead.  Evidence comes in many forms, and some of the most compelling forms are bluntly empirical.  (A point that Aristotle noted in the Nicomachean Ethics when he noted that different subjects admit different levels of precision and that it is a sign of wisdom to demand only the level of precision which the subject under discussions requires.) Do you know anyone who believes the Obama campaign has traction?  You don’t need a statistic to issue a death certificate.

The second reason I predict a handy victory for Romney-Ryan ticket is likewise rudely empirical.  Look at the rallies. Note the number of “Romney-Ryan” signs, buttons, and insignia you see around — and note, too, who’s sporting that paraphernalia.

Free Springsteen concert and Obama pull in 18,000

One of the more memorable "gulp" moments for Republicans in '04 was the Friday before Election Day when John Kerry and Bruce Springsteen brought together a massive crowd of 70,000 to 80,000 in the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin

Today, in a last minute push to get the vote out, the combined power of Barack and the Boss drew only 18,000. 

Democrats are already worried about the early vote counts in Wisconsin. The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more.  On his own, Springsteen can attract 84,000 paying customers just a few hours away in Chicago.

Does this suggest John Kerry can pull in 52,000 more people than Barack Obama can? 

Does this look like an ad of a winner?

A New York Conservative tells you why you should vote

Voting is an honor.  It is a gift.  It may not be a duty, or a responsibility to vote, but it certainly is an opportunity to be counted, to have one's say, to make one's feelings known -- to stand up against the liberal dream of silencing all dissent.

The fact of the matter is that every vote counts.  It is a message sent to those who refuse to hear our voices, because they believe we don't matter -- unless, of course, we agree with them.

Beyond the polls:  Another way to predict the election

A rather obscure university model has proven to be far more reliable than public polling -- or pretty much any other model. Developed by two University of Colorado (CU) political science professors, Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, this analysis method has proven amazingly accurate at correctly projecting Electoral College results on a state-by-state basis covering an amazing 30 years and eight presidential elections.

Their most recent analysis, released October 4th, projects that Romney will receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes (five votes more than their August prediction). President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes; well short of the 270 needed to retain the presidency.

Amazon picks the winner

It seems more people are reading conservative books than liberal books by a 59-41 margin. 

NY Times: Obama Beat Hoover!

You know your record as President is abysmal when supporters are reduced to touting how much better you’ve done than Herbert Hoover. But that’s where Obama is at, apparently, as historian Robert McElvaine took to the New York Times a few days ago to make exactly that case. Seeking to combat unfavorable comparisons to the pace of recovery under Obama with that of other Presidents, such as Reagan or Clinton, McElvaine dismissed them all us irrelevant and asserted that the only comparison that matters is between Obama and Hoover. And on that measure, we are told that Obama passes with flying colors!

Union Leader endorses Romney

Only Mitt Romney offers a way out of this destructive cycle

It’s up to you

The election is here and you will make the difference.

MSM has dropped the pretense and openly supports Obama

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