Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Tonight we will know

Which will the country choose?
An Election Guide

The outcome in nearly three-quarters of the states, plus the District of Columbia, is almost certain.  Unless something truly unforeseen happens, Mitt Romney will win in 23 of those states (including Texas), while Obama will win in 14 (including California, New York, and Illinois) plus Washington, D.C.  Through those 37 states and D.C., the electoral vote will almost surely be as follows: Romney 190, Obama 183.

This is a nice breakdown of what each candidate must have as the returns come in.  

CNN’s Last Poll

“Among those likely voters, 41 percent describe themselves as Democrats, 29 percent describe themselves as Independents and 30 percent describe themselves as Republicans….

Rasmussen projects that 39 percent of voters will be Democrats and 37 percent Republicans, leaving 24 percent Independent.

Let’s apply Rasmussen’s voting percentages to CNN’s polling results assuming 1,000 voters made up of 390 Democrats, 240 Independents and 370 Republicans. Voting for President Obama, we would have 363 Democrats (93 percent of 390), 89 Independents (37 percent of 240), and 4 Republicans (1 percent of 370), for a total of 456 votes. Voting for Gov. Romney, we would have 366 Republicans (99 percent of 370), 134 Independents (56 percent of 240), and 20 Democrats (5 percent of 390) for a total of 520 votes. So, President Obama would get 46 percent of the vote and Governor Romney would get 52 percent, again, a huge Romney victory.

This CNN poll is truly great news for Republicans unless you believe that Democrats will vote 11 percent more than Republican this year and very few people do 

The November Surprise

Rasmussen revealed that for the month of October, its data showed that among likely voters, the electorate is 39 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic

This comes from a survey of 15,000 people taken over the course of a month. Yes, 15,000 people —15 times the number in a statistically significant poll. 

This number might be discounted, since Rasmussen has a reputation as leaning Republican. Except that last week, Gallup — the oldest and most reputable national pollster — released its party ID survey of 9,424 likely voters. And it came out 36 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat.
This means two firms, with huge numbers of likely voters in their surveys, are finding on election eve that there are more Republican than Democratic voters.

If the numbers come out with more Republicans than Democrats, Romney wins.  If it comes out with Rasmussen’s numbers it’s a landslide.

When all else fails, lie

“We tried our ideas. They worked. The economy grew. We created jobs. Deficits went down. We tried their ideas. They didn't work. The economy didn't grow, not as many jobs, and the deficit went up.”  Barack Obama 11/5/2012

You have to have no shame to make this kind of a statement.   

The final Presidential Debate

It was last night, but didn’t include either Obama or Romney.

Obamacare: Unintended Consequences

Several restaurants, hotels and retailers have started or are preparing to limit schedules of hourly workers to below 30 hours a week. That is the threshold at which large employers in 2014 would have to offer workers a minimum level of insurance or pay a penalty starting at $2,000 for each worker. . . .

Peggy Noonan:  It’s Romney

There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same. 

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

Bob Dylan says it Obama in a landslide

Dylan says, "Don't believe the media. I think it's going to be a landslide."

I agree not to believe the media and that it will be a landslide, but it will by a Romney landslide.  

The Obama voter

It seems to me that many left-wingers confuse good intentions with good outcomes and mistake the feeling of virtue for virtue itself. I hear them say things like, “Well, at least Obama cares,” as if the presidency were not an important job that could be done well or badly. Would they choose to be operated on by a surgeon because he cares or would they prefer one who knew what he was doing and could get the job done? They praise programs for their intent without considering their outcomes or costs. They do not weigh their liberty in the balance of their reason. At their worst, they cherish a sense of themselves as good and generous because they vote for the people who tell them they are good and generous, and hold as hateful those who will not join in praising the emperor’s new clothes.

This is the problem.  The law of unintended consequences never seems to sink in to the liberal brain. 

A good sign?

Howard Dean is claiming voter suppression adding that the only way Obama can lose this is if his voters are kept away from the polls.  This may be a good sign that the excuses have started already, or it may be just the ramblings of a paranoid old pol. 

Obama the cold fish

Personal relationships with much of Washington - Obama is frighteningly weak. Last week, I asked a member of the Senate if he knows of anyone who really knows Obama.  He said he does not. Washington is thick with stories about Obama's insularity and distance. We hear how he does not listen to criticism - he sometimes just walks out of the room...

Politico and Media Matters go after one another.

It appears the “kids” are jockeying for position as the Obama Administration’smouthpiece.

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