Election Day 2012

Signs that Romney will win and it won’t be close

There is not one person who voted for John McCain last time who will switch and vote for Obama this time.  There are many previous Obama supporters who plan to vote for Romney.  Republicans who stayed home four years ago rather than vote for McCain are not going to stay home again.  Many will vote not because of Romney, but in spite of Romney.  They want no more of Obama and his policies.

Crowd comparisons between Romney and Obama reveal Obama as a fad whose time has passed.  There is energy and enthusiasm in the Romney campaign.  There is anger and pettiness in the Obama campaign.

Early voting suggests a tsunami for Romney, at least when compared to the corresponding numbers four years ago.  Women are breaking for Romney.  States that were never thought to be in play by pollsters suddenly look even or even trending toward Romney.  Pennsylvania and Michigan are two examples.  Nothing is moving toward Obama.  Everything is moving away.

Newspaper endorsements reflect the mood of their readers.  The Des Moines Register endorsed Romney.  Ditto the NY Daily News and many other papers who routinely endorse Democrats.  Ben Shapiro reports:

According to the University of California, Santa Barbara American Presidency Project study of the top 100 newspaper editorial endorsements, Mitt Romney has seen a vast wave of switches from 2008 Obama endorsers. Obama, meanwhile, has seen only one newspaper that endorsed John McCain come around to endorse him. At the same time, many newspapers have also switched from Obama to "no endorsement."

There is not one constituency group that reasonably can be seen increasing its support for Obama.  Hardcore Democrat groups are uninspired.  Turnout among them will be lower.  Obama will win these groups by overwhelming majorities, but the groups will be much smaller this time around.

Doug Ross presented some interesting results that support my contentions.  A survey commissioned by the Washington Post is the source of these numbers.  Mr. Ross's summary included the following (my emphasis):

Overall, the Post-ABC poll found that 13 percent of 2008 Obama voters have decided to back Mitt Romney.

Even absurdly-skewed Poll show Romney tied

The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both.

Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.

Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41%described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans." 

+11 D’s still only get Obama a tie. 

More reasons to be bullish

Why do I think this when the polls continue to forecast a close race? Two reasons. First, because the air long ago went out of the Obama campaign. “But where,” you ask, “is the data for that? What do the numbers say?” I have no doubt that data could be assembled and expressed numerically. But asking for data about the state of the Obama campaign is like asking for proof that a body lying on the sidewalk with a stake through its heart is dead.  Evidence comes in many forms, and some of the most compelling forms are bluntly empirical.  (A point that Aristotle noted in the Nicomachean Ethics when he noted that different subjects admit different levels of precision and that it is a sign of wisdom to demand only the level of precision which the subject under discussions requires.) Do you know anyone who believes the Obama campaign has traction?  You don’t need a statistic to issue a death certificate.

The second reason I predict a handy victory for Romney-Ryan ticket is likewise rudely empirical.  Look at the rallies. Note the number of “Romney-Ryan” signs, buttons, and insignia you see around — and note, too, who’s sporting that paraphernalia.

Free Springsteen concert and Obama pull in 18,000

One of the more memorable "gulp" moments for Republicans in '04 was the Friday before Election Day when John Kerry and Bruce Springsteen brought together a massive crowd of 70,000 to 80,000 in the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin. 

Today, in a last minute push to get the vote out, the combined power of Barack and the Boss drew only 18,000. 

Democrats are already worried about the early vote counts in Wisconsin. The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more.  On his own, Springsteen can attract 84,000 paying customers just a few hours away in Chicago.

Does this suggest John Kerry can pull in 52,000 more people than Barack Obama can? 

Does this look like an ad of a winner?

Dancing for Obama.

A New York Conservative tells you why you should vote

Voting is an honor.  It is a gift.  It may not be a duty, or a responsibility to vote, but it certainly is an opportunity to be counted, to have one's say, to make one's feelings known -- to stand up against the liberal dream of silencing all dissent.

The fact of the matter is that every vote counts.  It is a message sent to those who refuse to hear our voices, because they believe we don't matter -- unless, of course, we agree with them.

Just because they will not listen does not mean we should not speak.

Beyond the polls:  Another way to predict the election

A rather obscure university model has proven to be far more reliable than public polling -- or pretty much any other model. Developed by two University of Colorado (CU) political science professors, Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, this analysis method has proven amazingly accurate at correctly projecting Electoral College results on a state-by-state basis covering an amazing 30 years and eight presidential elections.

Their most recent analysis, released October 4th, projects that Romney will receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes (five votes more than their August prediction). President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes; well short of the 270 needed to retain the presidency.

Amazon picks the winner

It seems more people are reading conservative books than liberal books by a 59-41 margin. 

NY Times: Obama Beat Hoover!

You know your record as President is abysmal when supporters are reduced to touting how much better you’ve done than Herbert Hoover. But that’s where Obama is at, apparently, as historian Robert McElvaine took to the New York Times a few days ago to make exactly that case. Seeking to combat unfavorable comparisons to the pace of recovery under Obama with that of other Presidents, such as Reagan or Clinton, McElvaine dismissed them all us irrelevant and asserted that the only comparison that matters is between Obama and Hoover. And on that measure, we are told that Obama passes with flying colors!

Union Leader endorses Romney

Only Mitt Romney offers a way out of this destructive cycle

It’s up to you

The election is here and you will make the difference.

MSM has dropped the pretense and openly supports Obama

They aren’t even pretending any more. 

Why Obama will lose

AAA second term plan

Gallup:  Obama’s approval drops 7 points in 4 days

It appears Benghazi may be having an effect.

Barone on the record:  Romney will win

Going on the record with 11 days to go, Michael Barone picked Mitt Romney as the winner of the coming election. 

Michael Goodwin explains why he’s voting for Romney this time

Where he totally fooled me was his claim to be a pragmatist, not an ideologue. He spoke of uniting the country and I believed he was capable and sincere. That he won 70 million votes and more than two-thirds of the Electoral College spoke to his appeal.

He failed as president because he is incompetent, dishonest and not interested in the actual work of governing. His statist policies helped consign millions of Americans to a lower standard of living and his odious class warfare further divided the nation. He had no intention of uniting the country — it was his Big Lie. 

I don’t hate him. But I sure as hell don’t trust him.

US Government spent $60K per household in poverty

New data compiled by the Republican side of the Senate Budget Committee shows that, last year, the United States spent over $60,000 to support welfare programs per each household that is in poverty. The calculations are based on data from the Census, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Congressional Research Services.

"According to the Census’s American Community Survey, the number of households with incomes below the poverty line in 2011 was 16,807,795," the Senate Budget Committee notes. "If you divide total federal and state spending by the number of households with incomes below the poverty line, the average spending per household in poverty was $61,194 in 2011." 

What we now know about Benghazi

We’ve not been told the truth by the Obama Administration, but leaks have sprung up.  

Luckily, their "firewall" -- blaming the tragedy on a hapless producer of a video trailer, the CIA, and lower level State Department officials -- seem (as one might have predicted, and I did), to result in numerous leaks to the press, undercutting that pack of lies.

The Truth about bin Laden, Al Qaeda, and GM

Joe Biden likes to tell people, “Bin Laden’s dead and GM’s alive” to tout the Obama Administrations greatest successes.  If only that were true.  The truth is Bin Laden is a martyr, GM is dying and Al Qaeda is alive. 

NY Times endorse Barack Obama

The NY Times endorsed Barack Obama for the second time.  Of course the last Republican the Times endorsed was Dwight Eisenhower. 

Leno’s idea for a Halloween costume

“Wear a re-elect Obama button and go out as a journalist”

A sign Obama will lose

When all else fails tear down the other guy.  When that doesn’t work, enlist children to do the same.  This video is just creepy and shows how desperate the left is.

Another sign Obama will lose

On election night 2008 Grant Park was thronged with Obama supporters waiting to see their man emerge on the specially-built stage at the south end of huge lakefront park to bask in his historic victory.  Not so this year.  This year Obama will be in McCormick Place.  

The only realistic way of reaching McCormick Place is by taxi (or car, if people drive themselves) this is clearly not a place Obama would be holding an election night event if he really thought he was going to win the election. How on Earth would his throngs of supporters be able to reach him if he won and the event was held here of all places?

Lena Dunham:  Your first time parody ad

Stupid ads are bound to generate parodies.  This one is pretty good. 

Where are the green jobs?

There was that time that Obama got roughly $90 billion for green energy jobs, or green energy “investments,” as he calls them, which were touted to save us billions of dollars in imported oil and create 5 million green energy jobs.
 
“The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 set aside $90 billion in renewable energy grants and loans for a grab bag of thousands of projects—wind farms, solar installations, natural gas fueling stations, biofuel research, and a $5 billion weatherization project for low-income homes,” reports BusinessWeek.com.   “Digging into the public records of the $21 billion spent so far through 19 U.S. Department of Energy programs reveals 3,960 projects that employ 28,854 people.”
Only 4,971,146 jobs left to go!

Four more years? No, at that rate it would take 693 years for Obama to create 5 million green energy jobs at the rate he created them over the first four years. And at the current cost, Obama would have to spend $3.6 trillion just to create those jobs.

How wrong can one man be before he gets fired?  Well seen in just over a week.

E minus 13

Clint Eastwood cuts an ad for Romney

Not much time left.

A.B. Stoddard:  Panic in the Democratic Ranks

The Fox News All Stars looks at the President’s Plan for Jobs.  Do the Democrats have a substance problem?  Krauthammer thinks they’ve got nothing. 

Is this the October surprise?

Mitt Romney was heavily involved in the extremely messy divorce of one of his key supporters ... and the Boston Globe is going to court first thing Wednesday morning in an attempt to unseal the court file as well as lift a gag order ... TMZ has learned.

If it is it’s pretty pathetic.  But if Romney’s testimony in a divorce case is pertinent, don’t you think Obama’s college transcripts are even more pertinent? 

CNN finds Obama won the debate

CNN found Obama won the debate by 8 points but also found 24% were more likely to vote for Obama after the debate while 25% were more likely to vote for Romney.  But I found this to be interesting.

The sample of debate-watchers in the poll was 34% Democratic and 30% Republican.

"That indicates that the sample of debate watchers is about five points more Republican than polls taken among all Americans throughout 2012, so the debate audience was more Republican than the general public," added Holland. "This poll does not and cannot reflect the views of all Americans. It only represents the views of people who watched the debate."

If you are a democrat and you are sitting on the edge of your seat because the polls are so close, you need to realize they are only close if the Democrats come out in greater numbers compared to the Republicans than they did in 2008.  In short, you’ve been lied to and this election is going toward Romney.  The leftwing pundits are not going to be shocked when Romney wins.  They will be crushed, upset and angry, but they know what the actual state of the election is. 

Romney comes across strong in Debate

In a debate about who should be commander-in-chief, Mitt Romney was just as much in command as the man in the job now.

President Obama came into the debate with a record to boast of, and he used it to play offense. He poked and prodded Romney, even tried to bayonet him at one point, and sought to lecture his opponent on what it’s like actually to be president.

The president accomplished what he needed to, particularly by taking the role of the aggressor that his base has wanted so desperately this debate season.

But Romney also had a strong debate, in pursuing different goals than the president. He sought to come across as reasonable rather than confrontational — a candidate comfortable with the campaign’s trajectory.

“Attacking me is not talking about an agenda,” Romney said at one point.

You could sense Obama’s frustration with Romney’s rope-a-dope strategy.  Refusing to take the bait, Romney looked presidential. 

When no one is looking

Obama hit back at Romney by stating that when he visited Israel in 2008, “as a candidate, I didn’t take donors. I didn’t attend fundraisers.” Romney held a Jerusalem fundraiser during his trip to Israel this summer.

Obama continued: “I went to Yad Vashem, the Holocaust museum there, to remind myself [of] the nature of evil and why our bond with Israel will be unbreakable.”

Asked why the Republican candidate chose not to mention his own Yad Vashem visit when the subject of the Holocaust museum was raised by Obama, sources in the Romney campaign said that they were not going to comment on what Obama had said, and that Romney’s deep commitment for and many experiences in Israel are well known.

You get a measure of both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney with this story.  President Obama let us know in that debate, that “the nation, me” did something important.  Mitt Romney doesn’t proclaim to the world all the good deeds he’s done.  Character is what you do when you think no one is looking.  Mitt Romney has great character.  

Romney’s best quotes from Monday’s debate 

My favorite is #4.  It lays out the case against Mr. Obama.

Obama changes strategy

The Obama campaign has changed their strategy at the last minute and will actually put forward a plan for a hoped for second term.  This was resisted by the campaign since in reality their only plan is more of the same.  Obama also didn’t want to be constrained by a plan in his second term.  I guess he was planning on having much more flexibility. 

What is the source of Obama’s anger?

One might ask what exactly about cancer, a disease whose progress is generally referred to in stages in that manner, is so funny? But even if we are ready to give him a pass for showing bad taste, one has to question the strategy being employed here. For several months, the entire Democratic campaign seemed predicated on derision and demonization of Romney. But in the first presidential debate the GOP candidate blew that effort out of the water, changing not only the direction of the race but rendering much of the Obama campaign’s material obsolete if not completely irrelevant. Yet despite that, the president keeps playing the same losing hand aimed at denigrating an opponent who strikes most Americans as inherently reasonable. That makes one wonder whether the president’s condescending attitude as well as his sarcasm has a lot more to do with his anger at Romney’s strength and staying power than it does with any tactical political plan. More and more, it’s sounding as if President Obama is just plain mad at Romney because of the growing possibility that he’s going to lose the election.

Has the MSM started to turn on President Obama?

Well they don’t think much of his Plan for Jobs at CNN.   But neither does the Wall Street Journal. 

Over at Morning Joe we have them discussing the petty attacks of the President. 

Russell Gold from ABC news told Politico “If you’re President Obama, you know you pushed the sarcasm envelope at Monday night’s debate when even Rachel Maddow describes the way you spoke to Mitt Romney as being in ‘very, very overtly patronizing terms.’”

BTW, Obama was wrong in his snarky comments.  There are over ½ million bayonets in the US Military, ships that are underwater are sunk, while boats that go underwater are submarines.  And just to make sure you know, port is left, starboard is right. 

If Obama has lost David Letterman….

It appears Letterman did what Romney asked people to do regarding the GM bankruptcy and read the op-ed piece he wrote.  Romney was telling the truth much to Letterman’s chagrin. 

If you want something to get better

Talk about it.  That line comes from the book In Search of Excellence.  So who is talking about the problems with poverty in the country?  It’s not Barack Obama but Mitt Romney.  In fact other than the rich not paying their fair share, what is BHO talking about?

 

Congressman Jim Moran’s son caught on tape teaching vote fraud techniques

A new undercover video from James O’Keefe and Project Veritas shows Pat Moran, son of longtime incumbent congressman Jim Moran (D-VA) and field director for his father’s re-election campaign, instructing a supporter in how to use fraudulent documents to cast a hundred illegal votes:  Click here for more.

Pew Poll:  Once again finds Republicans smarter than Democrats

And has found this every year since they started checking back in 1987on political knowledge.  Not only that, Pew found Tea Party members are more educated than the average US citizen.

Democrats decry “low information” voters

“Low-information voters” are really being attacked for failing to be politically tribal, for failing to do what the experts and high-information media set believe they should do – which, in essence, is vote Obama.

Behind the PC-sounding lingo of “low information”, there lurks a very old, elitist contempt for the mob. What we’re really witnessing is the rehabilitation of the idea that certain sections of the electorate are just too ill-educated or unenlightened to be trusted to vote properly. 

Actually the left is unhappy with Republican low information voters but cultivate their own low information voters.   It was Obama who posited that the Democrats could forge a winning coalition of welfare and the working poor voters.   

MSM may go into mourning in November

Watch the faces of the CBS reporters after  :29 seconds in.  They look like they just heard a relative has died when they get the results of their Ohio focus group on the last Presidential debate. 

Why the left hates gay conservatives

. 
the left doesn’t hate me because I am mean or brash or too aggressive – the same label can be applied to many of my critics. No, the left hates me because I have the audacity to stand up to them. They hate me because I am a conservative who happens to be gay. They hate me because I won’t be bullied by them. They hate me because I have dared to wander off the liberal plantation, because I refuse to play the victim card, and because I have rejected their failed big government, single-issue, tunnel-visioned agenda.”

Heretics are always a greater threat to their supposed faith than are simple non-believers.  Gays and blacks who fail to toe the party line (and to a lesser extent women) are vilified because they are dangerous.