Election Day 2012

Signs that Romney will win and it won’t be close

There is not one person who voted for John McCain last time who will switch and vote for Obama this time.  There are many previous Obama supporters who plan to vote for Romney.  Republicans who stayed home four years ago rather than vote for McCain are not going to stay home again.  Many will vote not because of Romney, but in spite of Romney.  They want no more of Obama and his policies.

Crowd comparisons between Romney and Obama reveal Obama as a fad whose time has passed.  There is energy and enthusiasm in the Romney campaign.  There is anger and pettiness in the Obama campaign.

Early voting suggests a tsunami for Romney, at least when compared to the corresponding numbers four years ago.  Women are breaking for Romney.  States that were never thought to be in play by pollsters suddenly look even or even trending toward Romney.  Pennsylvania and Michigan are two examples.  Nothing is moving toward Obama.  Everything is moving away.

Newspaper endorsements reflect the mood of their readers.  The Des Moines Register endorsed Romney.  Ditto the NY Daily News and many other papers who routinely endorse Democrats.  Ben Shapiro reports:

According to the University of California, Santa Barbara American Presidency Project study of the top 100 newspaper editorial endorsements, Mitt Romney has seen a vast wave of switches from 2008 Obama endorsers. Obama, meanwhile, has seen only one newspaper that endorsed John McCain come around to endorse him. At the same time, many newspapers have also switched from Obama to "no endorsement."

There is not one constituency group that reasonably can be seen increasing its support for Obama.  Hardcore Democrat groups are uninspired.  Turnout among them will be lower.  Obama will win these groups by overwhelming majorities, but the groups will be much smaller this time around.

Doug Ross presented some interesting results that support my contentions.  A survey commissioned by the Washington Post is the source of these numbers.  Mr. Ross's summary included the following (my emphasis):

Overall, the Post-ABC poll found that 13 percent of 2008 Obama voters have decided to back Mitt Romney.

Even absurdly-skewed Poll show Romney tied

The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both.

Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.

Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41%described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans." 

+11 D’s still only get Obama a tie. 

More reasons to be bullish

Why do I think this when the polls continue to forecast a close race? Two reasons. First, because the air long ago went out of the Obama campaign. “But where,” you ask, “is the data for that? What do the numbers say?” I have no doubt that data could be assembled and expressed numerically. But asking for data about the state of the Obama campaign is like asking for proof that a body lying on the sidewalk with a stake through its heart is dead.  Evidence comes in many forms, and some of the most compelling forms are bluntly empirical.  (A point that Aristotle noted in the Nicomachean Ethics when he noted that different subjects admit different levels of precision and that it is a sign of wisdom to demand only the level of precision which the subject under discussions requires.) Do you know anyone who believes the Obama campaign has traction?  You don’t need a statistic to issue a death certificate.

The second reason I predict a handy victory for Romney-Ryan ticket is likewise rudely empirical.  Look at the rallies. Note the number of “Romney-Ryan” signs, buttons, and insignia you see around — and note, too, who’s sporting that paraphernalia.

Free Springsteen concert and Obama pull in 18,000

One of the more memorable "gulp" moments for Republicans in '04 was the Friday before Election Day when John Kerry and Bruce Springsteen brought together a massive crowd of 70,000 to 80,000 in the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin. 

Today, in a last minute push to get the vote out, the combined power of Barack and the Boss drew only 18,000. 

Democrats are already worried about the early vote counts in Wisconsin. The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more.  On his own, Springsteen can attract 84,000 paying customers just a few hours away in Chicago.

Does this suggest John Kerry can pull in 52,000 more people than Barack Obama can? 

Does this look like an ad of a winner?

Dancing for Obama.

A New York Conservative tells you why you should vote

Voting is an honor.  It is a gift.  It may not be a duty, or a responsibility to vote, but it certainly is an opportunity to be counted, to have one's say, to make one's feelings known -- to stand up against the liberal dream of silencing all dissent.

The fact of the matter is that every vote counts.  It is a message sent to those who refuse to hear our voices, because they believe we don't matter -- unless, of course, we agree with them.

Just because they will not listen does not mean we should not speak.

Beyond the polls:  Another way to predict the election

A rather obscure university model has proven to be far more reliable than public polling -- or pretty much any other model. Developed by two University of Colorado (CU) political science professors, Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, this analysis method has proven amazingly accurate at correctly projecting Electoral College results on a state-by-state basis covering an amazing 30 years and eight presidential elections.

Their most recent analysis, released October 4th, projects that Romney will receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes (five votes more than their August prediction). President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes; well short of the 270 needed to retain the presidency.

Amazon picks the winner

It seems more people are reading conservative books than liberal books by a 59-41 margin. 

NY Times: Obama Beat Hoover!

You know your record as President is abysmal when supporters are reduced to touting how much better you’ve done than Herbert Hoover. But that’s where Obama is at, apparently, as historian Robert McElvaine took to the New York Times a few days ago to make exactly that case. Seeking to combat unfavorable comparisons to the pace of recovery under Obama with that of other Presidents, such as Reagan or Clinton, McElvaine dismissed them all us irrelevant and asserted that the only comparison that matters is between Obama and Hoover. And on that measure, we are told that Obama passes with flying colors!

Union Leader endorses Romney

Only Mitt Romney offers a way out of this destructive cycle

It’s up to you

The election is here and you will make the difference.

MSM has dropped the pretense and openly supports Obama

They aren’t even pretending any more. 

The Final Days

Measuring Enthusiasm in the final days 

Steve Wonder concert for Obama comes up short

Legendary performer Stevie Wonder this morning expressed his love for Cleveland during a get-out-the-vote rally at Cleveland State University.

His love went largely unrequited.

Fewer than 200 people showed up towatch Wonder perform a handful of his hits at the early voting event in support of President Barack Obama.

Cleveland sees 5% of turnout for Obama’s last visit to Cleveland vs 2008

 

Last night, in the cold and with long lines, 30,000 people showed up in Ohio to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. That same day, Obama attracted a meager 2,800. But enthusiasm for President FailureTeleprompter can be judged by more than comparisons with Romney. In 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland, a Democrat stronghold, Obama attracted 80,000. This morning, at his last 2012 stop in that same city, Obama could only attract 4,000.

Team Obama will spin, as they have throughout the campaign, and tell their stenographers in the Corrupt Media that they've intentionally chosen smaller, more personal venues. But does anyone honestly believe that if President WaterParter could attract crowds even half as large as the ones we saw in 2008, he wouldn't? 

Besides, even if that was the case, in that exact same Cleveland venue, according to the RNC,  McCainwas able to attract a bigger crowd in 2008 than Obama did yesterday. Yes, that's correct, Obama's attracting crowds smaller than John McCain did in 2008 but the polls are telling us he's going to best or beat his D+5 2008 turnout advantage.

Wisconsin comes out for Romney

Friday morning Governor Mitt Romney held a rally at the county fairgrounds. Despite the frosty temperatures, over 1500 people who could not get in attended the “overflow rally” outside the event.

The energy was enthusiastic and upbeat for Romney supporters. Female voters spoke to me about the most important issues to them this coming Tuesday. The overwhelming response was jobs, the economy, and a better future for their children and grandchildren.

Colorado’s last Romney event:  18,000 enthusiastic supporters

This is one I was at.  We arrived 3 ½ hours before the event to long lines.  The crowd was made up of voters of all ages and we all pumped up despite the cold weather.  It was fun to talk with the people near us.  They all were “broken glass” voters, that is, they would be willing to crawl over broken glass to vote for Mitt Romney in this election.  And the enthusiasm is for Romney.  Mitt closed comparing Obama’s call for “revenge” vs his call for “love of country.”  The crowd went wild.  

In the meantime, the Obama team struggles to explain the revenge remark.  

Six Reasons to be optimistic in the final days of election 2012

Here’s one I hadn’t heard before:

The Washington Post has updated its Congressional projections, now calling for House Republicans to roughly maintain their current majority margin in the next Congress -- if not expand on it.  Ed Morrissey makes a good point: If it took an evenly-split electorate (in terms of party ID) to build the 2010 red wave that swept Republicans back into a substantial House majority, how could they possibly hold or enlarge their advantage if 2012's electorate will besignificantly more Democratic, as many pollster are assuming?

This is a very good point.  It’s like predicting a famine when other predictions show bumper crops. 

Another reason to be optimistic:  Desperate religious ad

Socialism disguised as religious faith. 

Desperate ad or simply imbecilic ad—you be the judge

A vote for Barack Obama is a vote for a vagina???? 

New York Daily News endorses…. Romney

“Four years ago, the Daily News endorsed Obama, seeing a historic figure whose intelligence, political skills and empathy with common folk positioned him to build on the small practical experience he would bring to the world’s toughest job. We valued Obama’s pledge to govern with bold pragmatism and bipartisanship. The hopes of those days went unfulfilled. . . . The regrettable truth is that Obama built a record of miscalculations and missed opportunities.”

Obama Administration admits cannibalizing likely voters

Obama’s early voting strategy is to get less likely voters to vote early, but it appears their efforts may have cannibalized likely voters in early voting. 

Gallup expects +3 Republicans in this election

This will explain a lot of things on Wednesday such as how could the polls have been so wrong?   Most of the polls have +5 to +9 Democrats. 

Minnesota moves into toss up category

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are separated by just 1 point in Minnesota, effectively making the race there a toss-up, according to polling taken for the conservative American Future Fund.

Romney takes 46 percent of the vote to Obama's 45 percent in the poll, which was conducted by the GOP firm NMB Research and shared with POLITICO. The Republican presidential nominee is up 13 points among independents, ahead of Obama 49 percent to 36 percent.

Pennsylvania is in-play also

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

If they are really tied at 47, Pennsylvania should go for Romney.  The undecided will go for Romney.

Michigan: Romney and Obama tied

Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election - Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%

Tied this late probably means this will go to Romney.

Axelrod:  Romney is going to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota because they are in deep trouble

David Axelrod, a senior adviser to President Barack Obama's reelection campaign, dismissed on Sunday the notion that Mitt Romney is making Pennsylvania competitive as the GOP presidential nominee heads there later in the day. 

"They understand that they're in deep trouble," Axelrod said on "Fox News Sunday." "They've tried to expand the map because they know in states like Ohio… they're behind and they're not catching up at this point."

Reminds me of when I was a kid.  I was fighting with my younger brother and had my hands around his throat.  My mother came and pulled me off him.  He looked at me and said, “It’s a good thing mom saved you.” 

Thomas Peterffly’s YouTube Ad

If you grow up in a socialist country you tend to be a very good Americans and conservative.

Who will Navy Seals vote for?

Hint, he isn’t in office now.

NAACP takes over polling station

Yesterday a group of NAACP personal came into a polling station in Houston Texas and proceeded to break election law.  They gave out free water and moved people from the back to the front of the line as they saw fit.  

Green energy: 

Wind farm noise causes “clear and significant” damage to people’s sleep and mental health, according to the first full peer-reviewed scientific study of the problem.