Election Day 2012

Signs that Romney will win and it won’t be close

There is not one person who voted for John McCain last time who will switch and vote for Obama this time.  There are many previous Obama supporters who plan to vote for Romney.  Republicans who stayed home four years ago rather than vote for McCain are not going to stay home again.  Many will vote not because of Romney, but in spite of Romney.  They want no more of Obama and his policies.

Crowd comparisons between Romney and Obama reveal Obama as a fad whose time has passed.  There is energy and enthusiasm in the Romney campaign.  There is anger and pettiness in the Obama campaign.

Early voting suggests a tsunami for Romney, at least when compared to the corresponding numbers four years ago.  Women are breaking for Romney.  States that were never thought to be in play by pollsters suddenly look even or even trending toward Romney.  Pennsylvania and Michigan are two examples.  Nothing is moving toward Obama.  Everything is moving away.

Newspaper endorsements reflect the mood of their readers.  The Des Moines Register endorsed Romney.  Ditto the NY Daily News and many other papers who routinely endorse Democrats.  Ben Shapiro reports:

According to the University of California, Santa Barbara American Presidency Project study of the top 100 newspaper editorial endorsements, Mitt Romney has seen a vast wave of switches from 2008 Obama endorsers. Obama, meanwhile, has seen only one newspaper that endorsed John McCain come around to endorse him. At the same time, many newspapers have also switched from Obama to "no endorsement."

There is not one constituency group that reasonably can be seen increasing its support for Obama.  Hardcore Democrat groups are uninspired.  Turnout among them will be lower.  Obama will win these groups by overwhelming majorities, but the groups will be much smaller this time around.

Doug Ross presented some interesting results that support my contentions.  A survey commissioned by the Washington Post is the source of these numbers.  Mr. Ross's summary included the following (my emphasis):

Overall, the Post-ABC poll found that 13 percent of 2008 Obama voters have decided to back Mitt Romney.

Even absurdly-skewed Poll show Romney tied

The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both.

Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.

Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41%described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans." 

+11 D’s still only get Obama a tie. 

More reasons to be bullish

Why do I think this when the polls continue to forecast a close race? Two reasons. First, because the air long ago went out of the Obama campaign. “But where,” you ask, “is the data for that? What do the numbers say?” I have no doubt that data could be assembled and expressed numerically. But asking for data about the state of the Obama campaign is like asking for proof that a body lying on the sidewalk with a stake through its heart is dead.  Evidence comes in many forms, and some of the most compelling forms are bluntly empirical.  (A point that Aristotle noted in the Nicomachean Ethics when he noted that different subjects admit different levels of precision and that it is a sign of wisdom to demand only the level of precision which the subject under discussions requires.) Do you know anyone who believes the Obama campaign has traction?  You don’t need a statistic to issue a death certificate.

The second reason I predict a handy victory for Romney-Ryan ticket is likewise rudely empirical.  Look at the rallies. Note the number of “Romney-Ryan” signs, buttons, and insignia you see around — and note, too, who’s sporting that paraphernalia.

Free Springsteen concert and Obama pull in 18,000

One of the more memorable "gulp" moments for Republicans in '04 was the Friday before Election Day when John Kerry and Bruce Springsteen brought together a massive crowd of 70,000 to 80,000 in the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin. 

Today, in a last minute push to get the vote out, the combined power of Barack and the Boss drew only 18,000. 

Democrats are already worried about the early vote counts in Wisconsin. The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more.  On his own, Springsteen can attract 84,000 paying customers just a few hours away in Chicago.

Does this suggest John Kerry can pull in 52,000 more people than Barack Obama can? 

Does this look like an ad of a winner?

Dancing for Obama.

A New York Conservative tells you why you should vote

Voting is an honor.  It is a gift.  It may not be a duty, or a responsibility to vote, but it certainly is an opportunity to be counted, to have one's say, to make one's feelings known -- to stand up against the liberal dream of silencing all dissent.

The fact of the matter is that every vote counts.  It is a message sent to those who refuse to hear our voices, because they believe we don't matter -- unless, of course, we agree with them.

Just because they will not listen does not mean we should not speak.

Beyond the polls:  Another way to predict the election

A rather obscure university model has proven to be far more reliable than public polling -- or pretty much any other model. Developed by two University of Colorado (CU) political science professors, Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, this analysis method has proven amazingly accurate at correctly projecting Electoral College results on a state-by-state basis covering an amazing 30 years and eight presidential elections.

Their most recent analysis, released October 4th, projects that Romney will receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes (five votes more than their August prediction). President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes; well short of the 270 needed to retain the presidency.

Amazon picks the winner

It seems more people are reading conservative books than liberal books by a 59-41 margin. 

NY Times: Obama Beat Hoover!

You know your record as President is abysmal when supporters are reduced to touting how much better you’ve done than Herbert Hoover. But that’s where Obama is at, apparently, as historian Robert McElvaine took to the New York Times a few days ago to make exactly that case. Seeking to combat unfavorable comparisons to the pace of recovery under Obama with that of other Presidents, such as Reagan or Clinton, McElvaine dismissed them all us irrelevant and asserted that the only comparison that matters is between Obama and Hoover. And on that measure, we are told that Obama passes with flying colors!

Union Leader endorses Romney

Only Mitt Romney offers a way out of this destructive cycle

It’s up to you

The election is here and you will make the difference.

MSM has dropped the pretense and openly supports Obama

They aren’t even pretending any more. 

Obama's failures

Why Obama has failed

Everything Obama and his cohorts in the media, academia, union halls, Congress, and the crony capitalist world believe in is fraudulent.  There was never going to be any economic recovery on their watch because they haven't the foggiest how an economy works.  There was never going to be any newfound love of America overseas because they have no clue what it is about America that has made us the shining city on a hill in the first place.  There was never going to be any job-creation because no one in Obama's bubble has ever created one.  There was never going to be any racial reconciliation because Obama was a post-racial fabrication of perverted white guilt and black rage.  There was never going to be a pristine future powered by windmills and solar panels because neither the business nor the scientific model for such technologies shows any possibility of success.  There was no way Obama would do a good job, because he's never had a real job.

CBS/NYTimes/Quinnipiac Polls

This poll has shown itself to be completely unreliable.  Take a look at its latest state polls 

Florida

• Obama leads +1 at 48 to 47 with 3% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 5
• Party ID wasD +7 (Dem 37, Rep 30, Ind 29). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29). In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). Good show Quinnipiac!  In a state with a GOP governor and massive increases in congressional delegations, popular GOP Senator, and strong state house swings to the GOP since 2008, you found Democrat strength equal to 2008 while Republican flight since 2004 continues unabated. You found the Democrat identification advantage in your survey more than doubles the advantage they enjoyed in 2008 despite a nearly net 300,000 swing towards Republicans in voter registrations. Your Florida poll is unassailable…at least in Narnia.

Ohio:

• Obama leads +5, 50 – 45 with 4% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 6
• The party ID was D +8 (Dem 37, Rep 29, Ind 30). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  There is no chance the Democrat turnout advantage will meet Obama’s 2008 best in a generation turnout which we write as D +8 based on the CNN party ID generally used.  This is even though the actual 2008 party ID was really only D+5 making this D +8 that much more implausible. How many statistics on changes in enthusiasm favoring Republicans, unrealistic Democrat demographic assumptions and elimination of Obama’s early vote advantage do you need to see before they start polling an electorate dissimilar to 2008 when their dream candidate fulfilled their liberal inner guilt and healed a nation or whatever BS they were peddling at the time? Quinnipiac is not going to let silly facts get in the way of its mission to buck up the Lefties and turn this contest into a horse-race.

Virginia:

• Obama leads by 2, 49 – 47 with 3% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 21
• The party ID is D +8 (Dem 35, Rep 27, Ind 35). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Who knew the blue wave continues so far South of the DC Beltway?  Certainly not Virginia and certainly not Governor Creigh Deeds. Just because Virginia flipped its state delegation dramatically in favor of Republicans doesn’t mean the voters turned their back on Democrats, it’s just there must have been a good TV rerun of Martin Sheen spouting non-sensical liberal tripe on the Left Wing that distracted

It’s polls like this that is giving comfort to Obama supporters.  But reality hits next Tuesday.

Pew Confirms Gallup:  Romney ahead in early voting

The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted. In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.  

A point I found interesting was that the touted Obama ground game has mean 63% of Obama voters have been contacted by his campaign.  While on the Romney side 62% of Romney voters have been contacted.  Overall, in this survey Romney is leading 47 to 44 among registered voters.  I think the difference between 47-47 would be in the voters who haven’t voted yet.    

 

Washington Post Poll: Sandy doesn’t move the needle

According to the latest Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll itis highly unlikely that Obama’s behavior during the reaction to Hurricane Sandy will have any impact on the presidential race:

Likely voters’ also remain evenly divided in their assessments of Obama’s overall job performance: 50 percent approve of the way he is handling the presidency; 49 percent disapprove. The stability of these numbers — and of the presidential contest — make it unlikely that high ratings on handling the storm damage will move the needle on either front, but 70 percent of those who give Obama negative marks generally give him positive marks on the hurricane.

The tracking poll shows the candidates deadlocked. But the internals of the poll – just like the internals of virtually every poll – show that Romney dominates on issues that count. The poll is D+5, meaning that it samples five percent more Democrats than Republicans, with 36% independents. Among independents, Romney has a five point lead, 51-46.

Rove:  The election may be set

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.

The Country Needs Mitt Romney

The way to fix health care is to take as much as possible away from the government and give it to the private sector. It is a universal law of nature that everything run by the government gets worse and more expensive over time — the postal service, airport security and Amtrak. Everything run by the private sector gets better and cheaper over time — cellphones, computers, hair products, dishwashers, etc. 

You know who specializes in rescuing failing enterprises and making things work? Mitt Romney.

Why Romney will win

Romney was not my first, second, or third choice, but I will crawl overground glass to vote for him. He does not hate this country and its people the way Obama does; and I can’t see him issuing a “Directive 10-289″.

If you want to know what Directive 10-289 was click here

To Save GM, Vote for Mitt Romney

Listening to Joe Biden this probably doesn’t make any sense to you, but theObama bailout of GM was a bad one.  

GM’s U.S. market share continues to decline, its management is in turmoil, its Opel subsidiary in Europe is foundering, and its finances are far more precarious than bailout supporters would like to admit.

Here are two data points regarding GM’s overall financial condition:

• The Obama administration “invested” $67.5 billion* in order to create a company with a tangible net worth of $3.1 billion**.
• As shown here, as of the end of the second quarter, GM’s “Altman Z-Score” was only 0.66.  For a manufacturing company, an Altman Z-Score, “…of less than 1.81 indicates that a company is in the danger zone for going through bankruptcy proceedings in the future.”

Mitt Romney’s language

Mitt Romney is a throwback when it comes to the language he uses and that is a compliment.
When the opposition warns that Mitt Romney is out of step with the times, they may have a point, but for those of us of a certain age and disposition, his Ivory Soap vocabulary -- 99.44 percent pure! -- would be a step not just back but up. That advertising slogan itself must date back to Radio Days circa 1944



The Alarmists are out

Yes, yes, it’s unsophisticated toblame any given storm on climate change. Men and women in white lab coats tell us—and they’re right—that many factors contribute to each severe weather episode. Climate deniers exploit scientific complexity to avoid any discussion at all.

Clarity, however, is not beyond reach. Hurricane Sandy demands it: At least 40 U.S. deaths. Economic losses expected to climb as high as $50 billion. Eight million homes without power. Hundreds of thousands of people evacuated. More than 15,000 flights grounded. Factories, stores, and hospitals shut. Lower Manhattan dark, silent, and underwater.

Of course it’s climate change.  If you are a believer you have the built in bias to say so.  But only 40 deaths?  In the 1938 hurricane that hit the same area causing 600 deaths and devastating coastal cities and towns.  It was called the Long Island Express. 

The Blackouts in the Northeast didn’t have to happen

The power outages states are encountering in the Northeast did not have to happen. During the Bush years, Democrats rejected plans to upgrade the electrical grid system in the country because they believed Bush and Cheney were just rewarding "cronies" who helped get them elected.

I’m waiting to hear the stories of people in this area that had windmills and are doing fine. 

John Podesta uses fake letters to fund raise

“I have been involved in politics for over 40 years—long enough to have even seen Nixon’s dirty tricks,” Podesta says in the Center for American Progress email. “But frankly, the past few months have shocked me. From a widespread campaign to limit voting through ‘voter ID’ laws to registration forms being tossed in the garbage, it’s clear that those who fear a fair election are waging war on one of our most basic rights.”

Podesta never mentions the Republican Party by name, but he’s criticizing the voter identification laws that Democrats have argued all year reflect a Republican effort to bring back Jim Crow era policies. He talks about fighting voter ID laws in Florida and Pennsylvania — which Republicans advocated — before sneaking in a line about Florida.

“Voters in Florida are receiving fake letters saying that their citizenship is being investigated,” he says.

The problem here is those letters were sent to Republicans. Chutzpah to be sure. 

Crazy Barry’s Used Car Lot

The GM bailout as a TV Commercial.

Benghazi classified cable warns couldn’t survive coordinated attack

The U.S. Mission in Benghazi convened an “emergency meeting” less than a month before the assault that killed Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans, because Al Qaeda had training camps in Benghazi and the consulate could not defend against a “coordinated attack,” according to a classified cable reviewed by Fox News.

Obama’s stonewalling on Benghazi isn’t working

Interestingly, likely voters don’t like what they have seen. In the latest CBS/New York Times poll likely voters disapprove of Obama’shandling of the Libya attacks by a margin of 51 percent to 38 percent. Among independents disapproval is even higher at 57 percent.

Obama’s always reminded me of Mussolini

Here’s some proof that Obama does remind a person of Il Duce.