Saturday, May 12, 2012

Polls, Romney, and Energy

What’s new Today

Story #1 demonstrates what you need to check when you see a poll.  Demographics are the key.  #2 is the story of Romney’s address to Liberty University.  He was a hit.  #3 through #5 are videos.  #3 shows an Occupy Wall Street kid who didn’t know much but was willing to listen.  #4 is Jonah Goldberg shooting down the cult of the young voter.  #5 is a new ad from the RNC. #6 is a warning about the Chinese economy.  It appears there are some problems brewing.  #7 is a GAO report that the USA has more oil shale reserves than all the oil reserves in the world.  #8 looks at the new technology and what it means for Eagle Ford Texas.  Happy days are there again.

Today’s thoughts

Gallup’s poll on how Obama’s evolution on gay marriage will affect their vote.  The good news for Dems is 60% says it won’t affect it, but the bad news is twice as many people find it less likely they will vote for the president than more likely.  Among independents it is 23% less likely vs 11% more likely. 

Eduardo Saverin has decided to renounce his U.S. citizenship just before that vaunted Facebook IPO and save lots of money.  Now we may not like it, but it shows you the weakness of simply taxing the rich.  They can move.

Passage of a constitutional amendment defining marriage as solely between a man and a woman makes North Carolina “look like Mississippi,” Gov. Beverly Perdue said Friday.  Governor Perdue is not running for reelection.  I wonder why?

        1.   Beware of Liberal Polls—always check their Methodology 

The Associated Press headline was a bit jarring; it claimed that President Obama had an eight point (50%-42%) lead over Mitt Romney.  Both Rasmussen (49%-44%) and Gallup (47% to 44%) report things are much closer and have Romney ahead...just what is going on?

Well...THIS is what is going on, the Associated Press has over-weighed its survey toward Democrats. The next two charts come directly from the AP survey document…

A pretty good explanation of what I’ve told you in the past couple of days.

       2.  Mormon Mitt Romney Warmly received at Liberty University
Mitt Romney was warmly welcomed in Lynchburg, Virginia, this morning for an important address for him — and religious liberty in America — at Liberty University’s commencement.  Romney, a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, spoke effectively about religious freedom, eternal purpose, marriage (received by cheers and a standing ovation), Rick Santorum, and alluded to China’s one-child policy before the estimated 35,000 in attendance at what Liberty describes as “the largest private non-profit university in the nation, the largest university in Virginia, and the largest Christian university in the world.” …

If you want to read his actual words you can find them at the link. 

       3.  Occupier gets an education

A naïve occupier gets into a discussion and learns a lot.

      4.  Jonah Goldberg thinks young people are stupid

Jonah lays out the simple truth.  Youth is energetically stupid. 

      5.  New RNC Ad:  “Sometimes I forget the Recession”

A quiet ad that lays out the facts much to the Democrats dismay

     6.  China’s economy cools
The eurozone crisis has captivated audiences around the world, but it is recent economic data from China that should be capturing the attention of policymakers. Despite confident predictions from Wen Jiabao that the economy was heading for more growth, April figures across a range of sectors make for grim reading: industrial production is down, fixed-asset investment and retail spending slowed, home sales plummeted, and export sales growth was only half what it was in March. When China’s economy grew at an abnormally low 8.1 per cent clip in the first quarter of this year, some analysts suggested that it had reached the bottom of the business cycle. Better times were ahead, they reasoned. These latest figures, however, suggest that what we may be seeing in China is the start of a prolonged, and perhaps permanent, deceleration in Chinese growth….

You always want to keep an eye on China. Growth is very important for China.  Without it, you can expect to see political problems cropping up.    

      7.  Oil Shale could double proven reserves of oil

… “The Green River Formation--an assemblage of over 1,000 feet of sedimentary rocks that lie beneath parts of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming--contains the world's largest deposits of oil shale,”Anu K. Mittal, the GAO’s director of natural resources and environment said in written testimony submitted to the House Science Subcommittee on Energy and Environment.

“USGS estimates that the Green River Formation contains about 3 trillion barrels of oil, and about half of this may be recoverable, depending on available technology and economic conditions,” Mittal testified.

“The Rand Corporation, a nonprofit research organization, estimates that 30 to 60 percent of the oil shale in the Green River Formation can be recovered,” Mittal told the subcommittee. “At the midpoint of this estimate, almost half of the 3 trillion barrels of oil would be recoverable. This is an amount about equal to the entire world's proven oil reserves.”

In her oral statement before the subcommittee, Mittal said that developing the shale oil would create wealth and jobs for the country, but also challenges for government….

If we took the minimum amount it would give the USA at current usage, 128 years of oil. The midpoint of the estimates of recoverable oil would take us to 200 years.  

     8. Eagle Ford Shale Creates 48,000 jobs.
An oil and gas bonanza in South Texas supported nearly 48,000 jobs this past year while creating overnight boom towns cashing in on a $25 billion economic windfall from the liquid-rich Eagle Ford shale, according to a university study released this week.

An energy rush that began with the first drilling in 2008 mushroomed into nearly 1,700 wells last year. Oil production is up more than six-fold since 2010 to more than 28 million barrels, while gas production has doubled.

The ladle-shaped shale formation stretches from the western Texas-Mexico border and hooks all the way toward Louisiana.

Blanketing the lucrative play are once-struggling rural counties that must now spend million-dollar tax rolls on infrastructure, development and education before the boom goes bust, cautioned the study from the University of Texas At San Antonio’s Institute for Economic Development.

“The thing we’re stressing to communities is sustainability,” said Thomas Tunstall, the lead author and director of the university’s Center for Community and Business Research. “What will they be left with when this is all over? It’s not just a matter of how much oil and gas is out there.”…

The final sentence in the article states that the area could support 117,000 jobs by 2021.  This is the real future of the country, not one of windmills and algae.

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