Saturday, May 5, 2012

Day One of Obama's losing crusade

Lots of seats at OSU

What’s new Today 

Story #1 relates that Obama officially kicked off his reelection campaign with a speech at Ohio State University.  It turns out only 70% of the seats were filled.  #2 explains why the unemployment numbers are not as good as they appear to be. 

Today’s thoughts

In another bad sign for the President, it’s been reported the National Christmas tree planted near the White House a year ago has died and is being removed.

It appears Elizabeth Warren has been listed by Harvard as a Native American up through 2011.

     1. Obama kicks of reelection campaign

Showing off what he called "a buckeye for good luck," President Barack Obama today kicked off his re-election campaign in must-win Ohio, offering a spirited defense of his first 41 months in office and asking for a second-term to finish restoring the economy.

Positing the Nov. 6 election as an opportunity to move forward toward prosperity, Obama said the stakes are too high to hand over the government to Republicans whose policies he said led to the Great Recession.

"This is not just another election," Obama said. "This is a make or break moment for the middle class, and we’ve been through too much to turn back now."

Joined by his wife, Michelle, Obama addressed a boisterous crowd of 14,000 in the 20,000 seat Schottenstein Center at Ohio State University, the first official campaign event in what portends to be an expensive and rancorous fight against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee….

Hmmm, 70% of the seats were filled.  Not a good sign for his first program.

    2. Why Obama will not be touting his unemployment numbers

One of the most confusing and distorted statistics coming out of Washington today is the monthly unemployment situation.   More and more Americans are waking up to the reality of the job market when the curtain is drawn back and the actual situation are revealed within the jobs report as issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

A comparison of certain statistics between January of 2009 (when Barack Obama was inaugurated) and April of 2012 reveals the depth of the job debacle in the United States.

In January of 2009 the CNP (Civilian Noninstitutional Population--those 16 years of age and older not in various institutions (i.e. prisons or nursing facilities) and not on active duty in the military) was 234.7 million.  By April 2012 this had increased to 242.6 million, a population growth of 7.8 million.  

The BLS calculates what they refer to as the Civilian Labor Force which is those who have jobs and are seeking jobs.   Those the BLS estimates are not seeking work are not included.   In January 2009 the labor force was 153.5 million.   In April 2012 it is 154.7 million.  An increase of just 1.2 million while the overall eligible population (CNP) increased 7.8 million.   6.6 million potential job seekers are no longer counted.

The ratio of those in the Civilian Labor Force as compared to the Civilian Noninstitutional Population is referred to as the Labor Force Participation Rate.   In January 2009 it was 65.4% as compared to 63.6% in April 2012, the lowest since early 1981.

If the Labor Force Participation Rate were the same as in January 2009 then in April the actual unemployment rate would be 10.7% not 8.1%....

In the past two months, the number of people employed in the BLS numbers has declined by 200,000 yet the unemployment rate has dropped from 8.3% to 8.1%.  Obama doesn’t want to have to explain that. 

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