Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Democrats are getting nervous

What’s New Today
Story #1 tells Republicans open a 7% lead in generic poll.  #2 shows some of the reasons I see an election tsunami coming at the Democrats.  #3 has a former Obama Czar calling his latest ad unfair.  #4 shows that contrary to a promise, the Democrats are soliciting money from corporations for their convention in Charlotte.  #5 relates how twitter account set up to garner good will for the White House is having the opposite effect.  The right is making fun of Obama and the Democrats on them.  #6 has the DNC refusing to give any more funds to Wisconsin Democrats for their recall efforts.  #7 tells us it is official.  There is no proof that Elizabeth Warren has an ounce of Indian blood in her veins.  #8 ponders whether socialism is possible with human nature being what it is. 

Today’s Thoughts
With the Washington Post expose of Romney’s youth, will the left do the same for Obama?  Is it time for the American public to become acquainted with Frank Marshall Davis (A Communist and Obama’s high school mentor)?
The argument about gay marriage seems to boil down to this.  Gays think it is a human rights issue that they can’t marry.  But they can marry people of the opposite sex exactly the same as heterosexuals can. 
Researchers at Yale University are working on a stay sober pill.  I think they are missing the reason people drink.  Some do it for the relaxation is allows while others for a mind numbing buzz.  Very few are drinking strictly for the taste.
Chris Matthews who four times mocked Sarah Palin for how she might do on Jeopardy ended up last on a special Jeopardy “Power Players” edition.  Payback can be a b*****.

          1.  Republicans lead in generic Poll

Republicans hold a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, May 12.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. This gap is much larger than it has been for the past three weeks when Republicans led by three but is consistent with the level of support the GOP has been earning since early March. 


The House will remain Republican, the Senate will go Republican and the Romney will beat Obama.

          2.  An Election Tsunami is building
Most polls, Rasmussen excepted, continue to show that neither presidential candidate is pulling away from the other and that close Senate races have shifting leads.  Primary elections, however, are showing a very different situation -- and it is voters who turn out in elections, not random Americans called by pollsters, who determine the winners and losers in politics.  If the latest news can be believed -- and we have every reason to believe it -- there is a conservative voting trend building, and its momentum is going to make it truly terrifying for liberals come November.
Let's start at the beginning.  In the first place, Rasmussen, which polls likely voters, has shown for years now that a huge chunk of Americans "strongly disapprove" of the job Obama is doing.  On May 10, for example, more than twice as many Americans strongly disapproved of Obama's job performance as "strongly approve" of the job he is doing.
Gallup in March showed an enthusiasm-gap edge that Republicans had over Democrats of 53% to 45%.  This is particularly important because Rasmussen, on a month-by-month poll, shows consistently that more Americans call themselves Republican than Democrat.  More troubling for Obama is that Gallup recently published a poll which showed that his strongest age group of support -- voters 18 to 29 -- strongly favor Obama over Romney, but only 56% say that they will definitely vote.  Meanwhile, the older voters -- especially voters 65 and older -- strongly tilt towards Romney, and 86% of these voters say that they will vote.
Then there's the proof in the primary pudding.  Two months ago in Oklahoma, Obama lost 15 counties to a protest candidate with no chance of winning.  How many of these unhappy Democrats will stay home in November?  Oklahoma (and West Virginia, but more on that later) is a conservative state which has historically been run by Democrats, but unenthused Democrat voters are appearing in other states as well.
The April 24 Pennsylvania primary took place 17 days after Fox News declared that the Republican presidential race was over.  Yet the Republican candidates for the presidential election received about 800,000 votes to 700,000 for Obama.  Democrats had the only close race in that primary, for state attorney general, yet out of the six different statewide races, more votes were cast for Republicans than Democrats in every race except that race….

Using Rasmussen numbers of strongly approve and strongly disapprove is one way to look at the problem Obama faces.  These are likely voters who will no doubt vote.  On average the strongly disapprove stands at 41% and the strongly approve at 25%.  This means that Obama must win 25+% of the remaining 34% to win reelection (73.5% of the remaining likely voters).  This is highly unlikely to happen and as this article points out more and more Democrats are likely to give up and not vote making the upcoming election a Republican tsunami. 

          3.  Former Obama Czar calls Romney Ad Unfair
On "Morning Joe" today, former Obama "car czar" Steve Rattner denounced a new campaign ad that attacks Mitt Romney for business decisions he made during his tenure at Bain Capital.

Specifically, the ad targets Romney and Bain Capital for the private equity firm's decision to acquire GST Steel and the jobs that were lost under their control.

Rattner called the ad "unfair" and defended Romney's decision at Bain Capital. Rattner says Romney's job was to make profits for the firm's investors, not save jobs.

"I think the ad is unfair. Mitt Romney made a mistake ever talking about the fact that he created 100,000 jobs. Bain Capital’s responsibility was not to create 100,000 jobs or some other number. It was to create profits for his investors, most of whom were pension funds, endowments and foundations. It did it superbly, acting within the rules and acting very responsibly and was a leading firm," Ratner said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Monday.

"So I do think to pick out an example of somebody who lost their job unfortunately, this is part of capitalism, this is part of life. And I don’t think there’s anything Bain Capital did that they need to be embarrassed about," he said.
Add to this the ad condemns Romney for actions taken by Bain Capital two years after he left the company.  

          4.  Democrat solicit Corporate Money
There’s yet another glitch with the Democrats’ trouble-plagued campaign convention in Charlotte, N.C.

Democrats tried to burnish their anti-Wall Street claims by promising in February 2011 that the $37 million convention wouldn’t accept corporate dollars.

But the convention’s host committee has been quietly soliciting corporate money to pay for convention-related activities.

The stealthy reversal was highlighted by the Wall Street Journal, which exposed a fund-raising group dubbed the New American City fund.

Money raised by the fund will be used to “defray administrative expenses incurred by the host committee organizations themselves, such as salaries, rent, travel and insurance,” according to a document filed with the Federal Election Commission.

The fund was created in April 2011, only two months after top Democrats announced that they would not use corporate funds for their convention.

The fund plans to raise at least $10 million. It is already getting money from Bank of America and Duke Energy, both of which are based in Charlotte. According to the Wall Street Journal, the third largest donor is Wells Fargo bank, which recently bought a Charlotte-based bank, Wachovia Corp….
Just a bit more hypocrisy by the Democrats.

          5.  The Left is Getting Creamed on Twitter
We are in the early stages of the 2012 campaign season, with a lot of battlespace preparation going on. In the skirmishing so far, one perhaps surprising media advantage has become clear: the right is clobbering the left on Twitter….

… Currently, the White House is promoting #AskMichelle, where loyal Democrats can go to ask the First Lady a question. Only nearly all of the questions have come from conservatives. A sampling:

When you vacation in Hawaii, can you see the rise of the oceans beginning to slow?
What’s up this week for the @BarackObama campaign and “Operation Change the Subject” (to anything except the economy)?
Do you still exchange May Day cards with Bill and Bernadette?
Do you think your daughters should request affirmative actions preferences?
Do you still get Christmas cards from the Rezkos and Blagojeviches?
So who succeeded you at that critical, highly important $300k/year community outreach job at UC hospital?
I have several friends who specialize in relocation. Shall I give them your number so they can help you relocate in January?..

Some of these are very clever.  I highlighted the one regarding their January plans. 

   6.  National Dems not feeling it in Wisconsin

According to this report from Greg Sargent of the Washington Post, Wisconsin Democrats are furious with the national party — and the Democratic National Committee in particular — for refusing their request for a major investment in the battle to recall Gov. Scott Walker. According to Sargent’s source, the party has asked the DNC for $500,000 to help with its massive field operation, but the money has not been forthcoming.

The source told Sargent: “Considering that Scott Walker has already spent $30 million and we’re even in the polls, this is a winnable race.” He added: “We can get outspent two to one or five to one. We can’t get spent 20 to one.”

Unfortunately, for the Dems, however, Walker’s opponent is not “even in the polls.” A new poll by We Ask America, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters, shows Walker leading Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by 52-43.


Walker seems to be solidly ahead of Barrett.  The recall election is just three weeks away and this refusal by the DNC to fund it is probably the best indicator of just that fact. 

          7.  Elizabeth Warren not 1/32 Cherokee

Lynda Smith, the amateur genealogist who unknowingly found herself at the root of the false “Elizabeth Warren is 1/32 Cherokee” meme introduced to the media by “noted” genealogist Chris Child of the New England Historic Genealogical Society, acknowledged in an email to me this past Saturday, May 12, that her statement in a March 2006 family newsletter upon which Mr. Child based his claim of Ms. Warren’s Cherokee ancestry was made with no supporting documentation. It was, in fact, an honest mistake that Ms. Smith now acknowledges is entirely without foundation.

Well she still has those high cheekbones.  

          8.  Socialism and Human Nature
As we watch Europe’s unfolding debt drama, it’s worth asking a question: If socialism and central planning can’t succeed in Europe, where can they succeed? After all, Europe possessed tremendous advantages when it launched its slow-running experiment in cradle-to-grave welfare statism and post-national political unity many decades ago: historically dynamic economies, educated citizens, relative religious unity (around a lack of belief), a commitment (born out of sorrow and blood) to peace, and military protection provided by the world’s great superpower. The result was something resembling a social-democracy Disneyland, a virtual theme park for believers in nationalized health care, progressive social views, soft power over hard power, and carefully managed democracy.
Yet human nature still prevails, doesn’t it? It turns out that the euro couldn’t turn Greeks and Italians into Germans, that cradle-to-grave welfare benefits have the same impact on the work ethic and productivity of millions of Europeans as they had on millions of Americans, and that “post-Christian Europe” was hardly a more-rational Europe.  
We can’t just shake our heads at the Europeans, however, not when our current president looks across the Atlantic and sees not a cautionary tale but instead a model for our American future. Name one Obama administration policy goal that wouldn’t make us more European. From nationalized health care to more “progressive” taxation to state/corporate ownership models to a shrinking defense, every significant policy choice is dragging us closer to the model that is collapsing before our very eyes. Does he think that Americans are better at being French than the French?... 

Read the first paragraph again.  Is there anywhere in the world that socialism would have a better chance than in Western Europe?  Socialism when introduced tends to chip away at the economy.  If you start with a robust economy, you have a fair amount of time until the chickens come home to roost.

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