Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Novembers Election after Wisconsin


What’s New Today

Story #1 looks at the importance of Wisconsin after last night’s victory for Scott Walker.  #2 is a progressive rationalization of what was going to happen last night in Wisconsin.  #3 has a gloomy future in view of the recall.  We are no longer in the era of a growing economy and have to take from someone to give to someone else.  #4 looks at the exit polls last night and wonders if Wisconsin is in play.  #5 is a strange video of a disappointed supporter of Barrett thinking Democracy is dead since he didn’t win.  #6 sees Obama’s prospects for a major improvement in the economy as slim to none.  #7 looks at Bill Clinton’s role in this election.  #8 finds numerous errors in a recent NYTimes editorial.  #9 looks at Obama and it seems he is self-destructing.  #10 talks about how negative Mitt Romney should go. 

Today’s Thoughts

Obama’s joint fund-raisers with movie stars and lottery winners opens him up to criticism and mockery.  Rush Limbaugh has now dubbed him “Barack Hussein Kardashian.”  

Exit polling was very bad in the Wisconsin election.  It called the election a tie and said men were for Walker by 13% while women were for Barrett by 12%.  Walker won by 7%. 

Obama is working his fingers to the bone to try to save jobs—or at least one person’s job.  He will attend five fund raisers on June 6. 


1.  The Importance of Wisconsin

President Obama holds multiple paths to re-election, with a handful of battleground states being able to slip away without leading to his defeat. But each possible outcome on his campaign map has always shared a common trait: winning Wisconsin.

A Republican resurgence here, which has burst into full view as the party determinedly defends its sitting governor in a rare recall election, is spilling into the presidential race. The result is poised to shape the general election fight between Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney, who intends to add Wisconsin to his list of targeted states. 

The president is bracing for a difficult set of challenges, which began last week when an uptick in the unemployment rate provided a fresh reminder of the beleaguered domestic economy and the deepening financial uncertainties abroad. A Republican victory here could set off a wave of adjustments in the lineup of swing states. Even before the outcome of Tuesday’s vote is known, Democrats are warning that Wisconsin is far from a surefire win in November. 

“We are tremendously polarized,” Mike Tate, the Wisconsin Democratic chairman, said in an interview on Sunday. “We’re going to remain a very competitive state heading into the fall.” …


CNN had a story (taken down after the election results became obvious) that the exit polls showed Obama significantly ahead of Romney contrary to the other polling data.  But the exit poll also said the vote was a tie and it ended 53-46 percent in favor of Walker.  This is a disaster of huge proportions for the Democrats. 



2.  Wisconsin gives Progressives something to build on

On Tuesday, all eyes will be watching to see whether Wisconsin voters will keep labor-bashing right-winger Scott Walker (R) in the governor’s mansion. But win or lose, the real story is the 15 months of people power leading up to this day. The real lesson lies in more than a year of progressive organizing, petitioning, canvassing and campaigning for the cause. The real result is a progressive movement that is deeper and broader than before.

When Walker’s opponents needed 540,208 signatures to trigger the recall election, Wisconsin’s progressives responded by collecting more than a million. They filled 152,000 pages— weighty evidence of the power of a group of people determined to right a wrong.

And the effects have rippled outward. The sight of 70,000 protesters — teachers, firefighters, nurses, students, parents with children – occupying the Wisconsin State Capitol in February 2011 ignited activists around the country. Just as the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt motivated people around the world, including in Wisconsin, the occupation of the Madison statehouse helped inspire the occupation of Wall Street a few months later.

Let me state the obvious: I want the recall to succeed. A victory for Democrat Tom Barrett would not only create an opportunity to roll back Walker’s worst anti-labor, budget-slashing measures, but would also send a clear message to those who are masquerading as deficit hawks around the country: We’ve had it with starve-the-beast politics. We’re done with leaders whose idea of austerity is to cut education, health care and vital public services in order to give more tax breaks to their millionaire friends…


This is an example of rationalization at its finest.   The fact is with all those protests, with the million signatures (which is almost the number of votes Barrett got), Walker still won.  This is something for Conservatives to build on.  Today the people who are enthused are not the progressives or the unions; it is the 42% of Americans who identify as conservatives. 
 
 
3.  No Recall
 
For disappointed Democrats, seduced by early exit polls into a vain hope that the union-busting Wisconsin governor Scott Walker might actually be recalled from office late last night, the good news is that some of their pre-election spin still holds up. Yesterday’s recall vote is not necessarily a bellwether for the general election, not necessarily a sign that Mitt Romney can win a slew of purple states, not necessarily proof that the country is ready to throw in with Walker’s fellow Wisconsinite Paul Ryan on issues of spending and taxation.

But neither is it anything like good news for liberalism. We are entering a political era that will feature many contests like the war over collective bargaining in Wisconsin: Grinding struggles in which sweeping legislation is passed by party-line votes and then the politicians responsible hunker down and try to survive the backlash. There will be no total victory in this era, but there will be gains and losses — and the outcome in the Walker recall is a warning to Democrats that their position may be weaker than many optimistic liberals thought.

To understand the broader trends at work, a useful place to turn is Jay Cost’s essay on “the Politics of Loss” in the latest issue of National Affairs. For most of the post-World War II era, Cost argues, our debates over taxing and spending have taken place in an atmosphere of surplus. The operative question has been how best to divide a growing pie, which has enabled politicians in both parties to practice a kind of ideologically-flexible profligacy. Republicans from Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush have increased spending, Democrats from John F. Kennedy to Bill Clinton have found ways to cut taxes, and the great American growth machine has largely kept the toughest choices off the table.

But not anymore. Between our slowing growth and our unsustainable spending commitments, “the days when lawmakers could give to some Americans without shortchanging others are over; the politics of deciding who loses what, and when and how, is upon us.” In this era, debates will be increasingly zero-sum, bipartisan compromise will be increasingly difficult, and “the rules and norms of our politics that several generations have taken for granted” will fade away into irrelevance.

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/06/no-recall/

I’ve seen writings like this before.  It was during the Jimmy Carter era when nothing was going right and the left put forward the idea that the Presidency was too big for any one man.  Ronald Reagan came in and that story ended, but it seems when difficulties happen and the left’s stock solutions don’t work, we find ourselves in a different era in which nothing works in.  That is another form of liberal rationalization and it is bunk.  Much as we haven’t entered the era of peak oil (in fact we may be in the beginning of the era of fossil fuels) so to America is not at the end of its good days.  The problem is that for Progressivism, it may be the end of days as their solutions simply don’t work.   


4.  Is Wisconsin in Play?

The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%. With 92% of the vote in, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s excellent website reports the score as 54%-46% Walker. Let’s say that’s the final results: only 13% of precincts from Milwaukee County and 3% of precincts from Madison’s Dane County—the Democrats’ two reservoirs of big majorities—remain uncounted. It has been emblazoned on mainstream media that the exit poll also showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state 51%-45%. But if you think the exit poll was 4% too Democratic—and that’s in line with exit poll discrepancies with actual vote results over the last decade, as documented by the exit poll pioneer, the late Warren Mitofsky*—that result looks more like 49%-47% Romney. Or assume the remaining Milwaukee County precincts whittle Republican Governor Scott Walker’s margin over Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to 53%-47%, which looks likely, the Obama-Romney numbers would look like 48%-48%.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

You bet it is. 


5.  Despite what he says, this isn’t the death of Democracy 


It appears to this Barrett supporter, Democracy means his side winning. 

6.  Obama’s Economic Problems

President Obama has almost no significant new openings to rev the stalling U.S. economy before November -- not with Congress as collaborators, at least. So what can he do?

The White House says the president will deliver a speech describing his economic vision this month. Offering a public address is Obama's favored fallback when triggering a new phase of economic attention. The president is still touting his American Jobs Act of 2011, but his spokesman said Monday that Obama will continue to search for “potential new ideas.”

“It’s not okay to simply root for failure,” White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters. “There’s a lot that can be done right now.” Asked to identify those individuals allegedly rooting for economic failure, Carney pointed to Congress. “There’s at least a failure to act,” he argued. “Congress has failed to act.”

Carney said there is “no mystery” about initiatives Congress could have embraced to put teachers, firefighters, construction workers, veterans and others into jobs. He suggested if Congress had enacted the president’s jobs plan last year, the country would not be experiencing unemployment above 8 percent three years after the recession officially ended. “We would be in a different situation and a different employment picture than we’re in,” he said….


So here’s what Obama is going to do—blame the Republicans.  He’s not going to okay Keystone.  He’s not going to open up drilling in the gulf and elsewhere.  He’s not going to approve LNG plants.  He’s not going to suspend any of the new regulations his government is burdening small business with.  He’s going to point his finger at someone else. And he’s going to lose in November.


7.  Whose side is Bill Clinton On?

Last week, former President Bill Clinton disavowed a central theme of President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign. Tuesday, he added that a key piece of the White House’s policy agenda doesn’t make much sense to him either.

With friends like this, Obama’s political enemies don’t need to do too much.

In an interview with CNBC that his office was scrambling to clarify Tuesday night, Clinton sided with congressional Republicans over Obama in calling for Congress to temporarily renew the soon-to-expire Bush tax cuts — but he also heaped praise on private equity companies like Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital, pleaded ignorance for his past gaffes and asserted his independence from the Obama campaign message operation.

It was Clinton in full Mr. Hyde mode — in a flashback to the deep and lasting tensions between the Clinton family and the Obama team that still linger from the bitter 2008 primary fight.

The interview was part of a whirlwind television tour Tuesday afternoon, with Clinton spending also granting interviews to NBC, PBS and CBS that followed up on his turn last week on CNN, when he referred to Romney’s business background — which the Obama campaign had spent days tearing apart — as “sterling.” Once again, Clinton was sucking up all the media oxygen and generating dozens of headlines about an intra-party split between the two presidents…

I agree with Dick Morris who thinks Clinton wants Obama to lose.  I don’t think he’s forgiven him for taking the Presidency away from Hillary and the adoration away from him.  As Charles Krauthammer said he thinks Clinton is a double agent. 

8.  NY TIMES Editorial:  Chock full of Errors

In an excellent NRO essay today, law professor (and Becket Fund senior counsel) Mark L. Rienzi explains that a recent New York Times house editorial that criticized Catholic organizations for challenging the HHS mandate “is wrong in every conceivable way about the mandate, religious-liberty law, and the lawsuits.” (Anyone detect a pattern in NYT editorials?) Rienzi makes five straightforward points. Here’s an excerpt from his first point, his rebuttal of the insipid contention that the lawsuits seek to “impose one church’s doctrine”:

The question is not whether contraceptives and abortion-inducing drugs will remain legal and available — it is whether religious organizations can be forced to provide free access to them. No one is forced to work for a Catholic institution. And those who do are perfectly free to get these drugs on their own, for free from the government, or from the many sources that willingly distribute them. Indeed, in no other context has anyone ever suggested that an employer’s failure to distribute an item for free is “imposing doctrine” on anyone. Catholic institutions also do not give out pornography, Big Macs, or trips to Disneyland. Failure to provide these things for free does not impose anything on anyone or restrict anyone’s freedom in any way. Overheated claims to the contrary cannot be taken seriously….

http://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/301708/nyt-editorial-catholic-challenges-hhs-mandate-chock-full-errors-ed-whelan#

This should be of concern to everyone.  The mandate is an assault on the First Amendment while saying it is a war on women is absolute rubbish.


9.  Obama Appears To Be Self-Destructing

… Swing voters are forming a similar opinion about President Obama, who sometimes seems as if he's deliberately trying to dismantle the coalition that elected him in 2008.

Mr. Obama won the Jewish vote by an astounding 52 percentage points. But -- thanks chiefly to his policies toward Israel and Iran -- he's lost more support among Jews (16 percentage points) than among any other ethnic group, according to a Pew survey in February.

Mr. Obama won the Catholic vote 54 percent to 45 percent. Four years earlier, Sen. John Kerry got only 47 percent of Catholic votes -- and he's Catholic.

The president's share of the Catholic vote is sure to shrink, thanks to the administration's plans to force Catholic institutions to offer birth control and abortion-inducing drugs in their health insurance policies and to Mr. Obama's embrace of gay marriage. Pennsylvania Democratic state committeewoman Jo Ann Nardelli cited her concerns about gay marriage when she announced May 23 that she has turned Republican.

Not just Catholics are upset. In Mississippi last week, seven local elected officials cited the president's gay marriage stance as the reason they are switching from the Democratic Party to the GOP.

People in upscale suburbs -- which have been trending Democratic since 1992 -- tend to be more liberal on social issues. Mr. Obama won half the votes of voters with household incomes of more than $100,000. But these people haven't liked Mr. Obama's economic policies or his class warfare rhetoric. They voted Republican, 58 percent to 40 percent, in 2010….


It’s amazing how the left keeps saying the right has gone off the rails and has driven out the moderates.  Gay marriage, enforced mandates on the Catholic Church, rules that basically are killing the coal industry, Democrats switching to the Republican Party, etc.  It’s not the right that has gone off the deep edge, it is the left. 


10.  How Negative Should Romney Go?

In an appearance on Monday’s “The O’Reilly Factor,” Fox News senior political analyst Brit Hume was asked by host Bill O’Reilly just how negative he thought former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney should go in the presidential campaign against President Barack Obama.

According to Hume, there will be some negative ads from Romney, but nothing like Obama who has really no other alternative.

“My thought about that would be that Romney will undoubtedly run a lot of ads that add up to saying that, and he will say it a lot himself and so will his surrogates on the campaign trail,” Hume said. “I think Romney has — look, I think Obama’s record is such a burden to him that he has no real choice but to go negative and go negative hard, which to a great extent he has.”

The reason Romney shouldn’t go as negative, Hume said, was to set up a contrast between him and the negativity of Obama.

“I think Romney is in a different position because when people turn to the prospect of, ‘Well OK, what happens if we elect him’ — he needs to radiate something of a positive spirit … I would just say that people need to believe that if they turn to him, he can make things better. And if he seems morose and negative all the time, he’ll fail to convey that sunny spirit. He needs a bit of sunlight in his message and I think that’s important to him. In a way that’s the game and it’s too late for Obama. He can have all the sunlight in his message that he wants. The results kind of speak for themselves.”

This makes sense for Romney especially since Obama will go very negative and will lose voters’ approval for his “being a nice guy” image. 

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Wisconsin



What’s New Today

Story #1 shows Intrade has Walker likely to win today’s recall.  #2 is a bit of prophesy as to what will happen if Walker does win.  #3 looks at the history of the recall and what it means to the progressive movement in Wisconsin.  #4 is a Democrat trying to put the best spin on the probably victory by Scott Walker in Wisconsin.  #5 takes a look at the ramifications of the Wisconsin recall on the Presidential race.  It could be significant.  #6 looks at a new attack on Romney.  It seems the Democrats get their best information about Romney and his actions, but it seems those actions took place before Romney was there or after he left.  #7 has a quote from Ed Rendell that Romney is certainly qualified to be President and no one is disputing that.  #8 shows the disingenuousness of David Axelrod in dismissing Marco Rubio as a possible VP candidate.  


Today’s Thoughts

Nanny Mayor Michael Bloomberg is limiting soft drinks over 16 ounces because it makes people fat and limited pot smoking arrest.  Somehow those two actions seem contradictory if you want people to stop overeating.  

Factory orders declined for the third time in four months in April.  More bad news if you are a supporter of Mr. Obama.  

What would Obama do without the words “Bush, headwinds, and extremists?”  He would basically mute in his reelection campaign. 

Apparently it isn’t just the Constitutional challenges that may stop Obamacare in its tracks.  There are technical challenges as well in IT software needed for the health insurance exchanges.


1.  Intrade Has Walker’s Chances over 90%

Even The New York Times has thrown in the towel on the Wisconsin recall.

With an Intrade poll citing Walker’s chances of winning the Wisconsin recall at more than 93%, The New York Times is entering into full-blown panic mode over what this election could mean for Obama’s chances this November:

A Republican resurgence here, which has burst into full view as the party determinedly defends its sitting governor in a rare recall election, is spilling into the presidential race.  The result is poised to shape the general election fight between Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney, who intends to add Wisconsin to his list of targeted states.

After valiantly trying to shield its readers from Walker’s lead, The New York Times is now doing its best to spare them the full horror of what is occurring in Wisconsin.  The progressive left pulled out all the stops: unions, rage, “community organizers,” demonstrations, and name calling were supposed to make Wisconsin the front line for the progressive “fightback.” In a state that hasn’t been carried by a Republican since Reagan in 1984, Democrats thought this strategy couldn’t fail.

At Via Meadia, we will wait for the actual votes before we call the election. Polls have been wrong and Intrade has been wrong. Surprises do happen.

But going by the polls and the odds on election eve, the Democratic strategy in Wisconsin has been one disaster and misfire after another. Special election after special election, defeat after defeat. The latest polls we’ve seen show that only 12 percent of the voters think that restoring collective bargaining rights to the public sector unions is their top priority.

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/06/04/intrade-has-walkers-chances-over-90-ny-times-in-panic-mode/

There is a realization that Obama appears to be in big trouble.  It reminds me of the experts each year who predict the outcome of the NFL season.  But it is odd when you have the same champion two years in a row, yet it is frequently predicted that will happen.


2.  What happens if Walker Wins?

It looks as if Governor Scott Walker will survive Tuesday’s recall vote. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has him leading Milwaukee’s Democratic mayor Tom Barrett by 6.6 points. As of late Sunday, the betting site Intrade was predicting that Walker has a 94.5 percent chance of becoming the victor. Even Ed Rendell, the former Pennsylvania governor and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, is now saying the recall wasn’t smart. “Don’t get an election that’s divisive, that may have an influence on the presidential election,” he told MSNBC last week. “We made a mistake doing that.”

If the recall fails, what will be the takeaways from the 17 months of pitched war that Wisconsin has endured since Governor Walker proposed his dramatic reforms of pensions and privileges in the state’s public-sector unions?

Expect the Left to Blame Obama

Maureen Dowd of the New York Times dismissed Obama on Sunday as someone who “prefers to float above, at a reserve, in grandiose mists.” When the likes of Dowd are no longer feeling the love, we shouldn’t be surprised that other Democrats are dumping on Obama for not showing up to help Barrett in Wisconsin. “Progressive Pundits Lay Groundwork to Blame Obama if Wisconsin Recall Fails” was the headline of a searing critique by Noah Rothman at Mediaite. He quoted Ed Schultz of MSNBC sarcastically noting that the president was in neighboring Iowa and Minnesota last week and that his campaign office is in nearby Chicago. “It’s all around, but is it in?” Schultz asked of the Obama campaign. “[Union members] want him on that line because he talked about being on that line with them back in 2007.” Schultz closed his plea for an Obama visit by saying it is the “job of a leader” to motivate his followers.

Liberals view Wisconsin as a state that is “leading the way in reshaping American’s view of the role of government,” Rothman emphasizes. “President Obama has abandoned that fight, noting correctly that it is not likely to be won,” he says. “But progressive pundits . . . are right — this is not just another election. . . .  It is a fight with broad implications that President Obama has abandoned. The question now becomes, can they [progressives] forgive this betrayal ahead of a tough election in the fall?”

Wisconsin Is Now in Play for November

The state hasn’t voted Republican since Ronald Reagan’s reelection effort in 1984, and Obama won it easily by 14 points in 2008. But the state can be competitive. Both Al Gore and John Kerry carried it by only a handful of votes — many of which may have been fraudulent, as a 2007 Milwaukee Police Department report showed.

By this fall, Wisconsin’s new voting law will probably be in effect. It limits same-day registration abuses and requires voters to show photo ID at the polls; this should reduce the role of last-minute fraudsters such as the infamous Park Avenue heiress who pled guilty to flying to Milwaukee in 2000 and passing out cigarettes to homeless people in exchange for their promise to vote for Al Gore.

The psychological blow of losing yet another recall campaign would surely reduce enthusiasm and turnout on the left, while leaving Romney with an extensive campaign infrastructure in the state: 22 offices set up by Governor Walker, firmly in place only five months before the presidential race.

http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/301674

I don’t expect Obama to be blamed, but just the opposite.  I think Obama will minimize what happened and from what I’ve heard, the Administration will blame voter fatigue with so many recalls.  But the fact will remain, Unions and the Democrats will have suffered a major blow.


3.  Progressives and Wisconsin

…Like children throwing tantrums against the rules of a game going badly, in 2011 petulant Wisconsin Democratic legislators fled to Illinois to disrupt the Legislature. Walker’s reforms included restricting the issues subject to collective bargaining. This emancipated school districts from buying teachers’ health insurance from a provider entity associated with the teachers union. Barrett used Walker’s reform to save Milwaukee $19 million.

In justifying a raucous resistance to, and then this recall of, Walker, the government employees’ unions stressed his restriction of collective bargaining rights. But in the May primary, these unions backed the candidate trounced by Barrett, who is largely ignoring the collective bargaining issue, perhaps partly because most worker protections are embedded in Wisconsin’s uniquely strong civil service law. Besides, what really motivates the unions and elected Democrats is that Walker ended the automatic deduction of union dues from government employees’ pay. The experience in Colorado, Indiana, Utah and Washington state is that when dues become voluntary, they become elusive.

So, Barrett is essentially running another general-election campaign, not unlike that of 2010 — except that the $3.6 billion deficit Walker inherited has disappeared and property taxes have declined. By re-posing the 2010 choice, Wisconsin progressives’ one-word platform becomes: “Mulligan!”…

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-wisconsins-peter-pan-progressivism/2012/06/01/gJQAByuq7U_story.html

This is in reality a disaster for the unions and the democrats if they don’t win and even if they do, every member of the legislature and governor in Wisconsin in the future will go into office knowing he can be thrown out any time after a year in office.  It’s a lose-lose proposition for the Democrats. 

4.  Rationalization and the Left

Democrats and unions began urgent damage-control efforts Monday in an effort to deflate Gov. Scott Walker’s (R-Wis.) expected win in Tuesday’s recall election.

Despite expressions of confidence, Walker’s adversaries spent the eve of the vote trying to salvage cold comfort as polls showed their man — Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) — heading for defeat.
They pointed, for example, to the fact that Democrats appear set to regain control of the state Senate, which could reduce Walker’s effectiveness as governor. But citing a probably down-ballot victory emphasized the fact that the left’s main goal seems out of reach.

Intrade, the political market service, put Walker’s chances of winning at 93 percent.

In addition to spinning the expected defeat, Democrats and labor pointed fingers of blame. Some union officials and activists partly blamed President Obama for refusing to help. Others complained that the recall was always an uphill battle.

Walker has led in all recent independent polls, including a survey from the Democratic-affiliated Public Policy Polling released Monday that had him up 50 percent to 47 over Barrett. The race has been highly emotional and hard-fought and has garnered national attention for months.

One union official involved in the race argued that even if Walker won on Tuesday, he would be so wounded from the recall that he will be rendered ineffective for the remainder of his term.
“[Walker] has two outcomes for tomorrow, which is be removed from office or survive. Neither is a great victory for him,” said the official, who predicted a Barrett victory. “He is going to come out of this thing battered even if he wins. … If it’s a Democratic state Senate, that weakens him even more.”…


This reasoning is the equivalent of a political scorched earth policy.  The Democrats may be starving, but at least Scott Walker will be too. 

5.  Obama’s Path to Reelection

President Obama holds multiple paths to re-election, with a handful of battleground states being able to slip away without leading to his defeat. But each possible outcome on his campaign map has always shared a common trait: winning Wisconsin.

A Republican resurgence here, which has burst into full view as the party determinedly defends its sitting governor in a rare recall election, is spilling into the presidential race. The result is poised to shape the general election fight between Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney, who intends to add Wisconsin to his list of targeted states.

The president is bracing for a difficult set of challenges, which began last week when an uptick in the unemployment rate provided a fresh reminder of the beleaguered domestic economy and the deepening financial uncertainties abroad. A Republican victory here could set off a wave of adjustments in the lineup of swing states. Even before the outcome of Tuesday’s vote is known, Democrats are warning that Wisconsin is far from a surefire win in November….

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/04/us/politics/walker-recall-battle-may-hurt-obama.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper

I’ve read the stories up til now about how narrow the path to election by Romney is.  That’s because of the assumption that there are only a few swing states available.  Wisconsin has been moved from an Obama state to a swing state.  The path for Romney is getting wider.



6.  MSNBC: Romney-Backed Solar Firm Flops
Sounds bad, doesn't it? Well, it's supposed to. The headline is supposed to declare to the world that Romney is a hypocrite and that his primary line of criticism against Obama is over. The first few paragraphs even back up the headline:
A Massachusetts solar company to which Mitt Romney personally delivered a $1.5 million loan when he was governor has gone belly up, leaving him vulnerable to the same "picking winners and losers" charges that he's been lobbing at President Barack Obama over Solyndra.
The president's reelection campaign wasted no time noting Romney's support for Lowell-based Konarka Technologies, which announced Friday it had filed for bankruptcy protection with plans to lay off more than 80 workers and liquidate its assets.
The filing came on the heels of Romney's unannounced visit last week to Solyndra's Silicon Valley headquarters, where he accused the Obama administration of a conflict of interest and poor judgment in approving Solyndra's $535 million Energy Department loan guarantee.
But, deeper in the piece -- about eight freakin' paragraphs -- Politico writer Darren Sameulsohn finally gets to the heart of the issue:
[1.] The GOP campaign noted that Massachusetts officials approved Konarka's loan application for a new pilot production assembly line in December 2002, the month before Romney was sworn in. …
[2.]  And even if Romney had been in office then, the agency that greenlighted the loan wasn't under the direct control of the governor. …
[3.]  Later in his term, Romney tried to defund the underlying green energy financing program. …
[4.]  Konarka, in the meantime, went on to raise $170 million in private capital as it amassed more than 100 patents for a variety of solar products, including thin, flexible panels that its customers then build into bags and umbrellas. It also raised $5 million more in state loans under Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick's administration.
So a solar company that received a loan not from Romney went out business 9 years after receiving the loan, and that's Politico's headline….

Democrats keep trying to blame Romney for actions that happened when he wasn’t with Bain or wasn’t the governor of Massachusetts.  It reeks of desperation.


7.  Ed Rendell:  “There’s nobody out there who thinks that Governor Romney is unqualified.”

… Stigall pivoted to DNC chairwoman Wasserman Schultz who he said operates in a “different universe” than how Rendell operated during his chairmanship.

“I agree with that,” said Rendell. He helped praise on former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele  who he called “effective.”

“He went out of the box,” said Rendell. “He said what he believed and it gave him credibility.”
Stigall asked if Wasserman Schultz should answer questions about Romney’s credibility surrounding inconsequential issues in the same way Clinton did regarding Bush’s response to the question of Asian leaders.

“Absolutely,” answered Rendell. “You lose your credibility. I mean this is – and no offense to Herman Cain – this isn’t Herman Cain. Governor Romney has significant experience which very much qualifies him for high executive office in this country.”

“So, then I can get you on tape today saying Debbie Wasserman Schultz is an unserious, uncredible chairman of the DNC,” Stigall pushed.

“No, Debbie’s a good chairman in the sense that she works hard, she inspires the base, she gets people excited,” said Rendell. “I think in the end, you’ve got to be credible. There’s nobody out there who thinks that Governor Romney is unqualified.”


Another Democrat declaring Romney is qualified.  Obama’s talking points get narrower and narrower. 


8.  Axelrod:  Marco Rubio as VP—Insult to Hispanics

Senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod said Sunday that handing the vice presidential nomination to Cuban-American Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) would be an “insult to Hispanics.” The Washington Times reports:

“I think it would be an insult to the Hispanic community to choose Senator Rubio if the thinks that that is somehow—if Governor Romney thinks that’s sort of a get-out-of-jail-free card for all of the things and the positions that he’s taken,” Mr. Axelrod said.

Mr. Rubio, considered a rising star in Republican circles, is Cuban-American and has become a major voice for the GOP’s efforts to win over Hispanic voters and to project an inclusive image to the country as a whole.

Hispanics broke for Obama 67 to 31 percent  in 2008. In 2012, Obama may be more vulnerable. His attempt to force Catholic institutions to pay for birth control could alienate the Latino population’s devout following.

The economy could open up even more doors for Romney. Unemployment among Hispanics rose from 10.3 in April to 11 percent in May, nearly three points higher than the 8.2 percent unemployment rate of the general population….


Somehow this reminds me of Baer Rabbit pleading with Baer Fox not to throw him into the briar patch.  Axelrod is afraid of Rubio.     

Monday, June 4, 2012

Obama Economics


What’s New Today

Story #1 shows how Obama’s economic policies have failed.  #2 demonstrates that Romney is not John McCain.  #3 looks at what is at stake in tomorrow’s recall election.  #4 looks at the nanny state as exemplified by Mayor Bloomberg in NYC.  #5 tells another story of a decision Obama wants to put off until after the election.  #6 has a woman who knew Obama at Harvard talking about her impressions of who he is.  #7 looks at the desperation of the environmental lobby.  They were so close with global warming.  How do they cope?

Today’s Thoughts

Some final polling shows the Wisconsin recall tightening, but Walker still leading.  I’m predicting that on Wednesday we will have a plethora of excuses being made as to why the Unions lost and how it has nothing to do with the coming election.  

The crisis in Europe regarding the Euro may afford opportunities for people who want to travel there. Already the Euro is down to $1.25 and if Greece leaves the zone it may spur others as well.  

After Obama’s six fundraisers on Friday I began to wonder if he had put as much work into the economy as he has into raising money, might we finally be out of the recession?  Just a thought. 

If appears black ministers in Massachusetts are calling Elizabeth Warren to the carpet.  They aren’t happy that she portrays herself as a “woman of color.”


1.  Obama’s Economics Failure

As the NRO sage points out, it isn't just his ideology, or philosophy, or even just his policies that have failed; it is Obama's entire view of economic reality that must be called into question:

The Keynesian government-spending model has proven a complete failure. It's the Obama model. And it has produced such an anemic recovery that, frankly, at 2 percent growth, we're back on the front end of a potential recession. If anything goes wrong -- like another blow-up in Europe -- there's no safety margin to stop a new recession.

[...]
Barack Obama doesn't get this, but businesses create jobs. And firms have to be profitable in order to hire. Yet the president is on the campaign trail criticizing Mitt Romney by degrading the importance of profits. Huh?

Without profits, businesses can't expand. And if they don't expand, they can't hire. And if they don't have profitable rates of return, they're not going to attract new capital for investment.

Which brings us to a couple of important reasons for the virtual freeze in hiring.

First, there's the fiscal tax cliff. If all the Bush tax rates go up, incentives will go down and liquidity will leave the system. You can't pick up a newspaper these days and not find a story about how the fiscal cliff is elevating uncertainty and slowing U.S. growth. House Speaker John Boehner asked Obama for help in extending the Bush tax cuts this summer. But Obama said no. Instead, he wants to raise marginal tax rates on successful upper-income earners, capital gains, dividends, estates and many successful corporations.
Where's the corporate tax reform that would lower rates and broaden the base and end the double-taxation of the overseas profits of American companies? A business tax cut would help enormously, but it's nowhere in sight….

Most liberals don’t really understand economics.  They talk about subsidizing firms that take jobs overseas.  The problem is that the USA has the highest tax rates in the world on business.  Money made overseas can’t be brought back to the USA without paying this rate.  But they can keep the money offshore paying the local rate if they keep it overseas.  Hence the incentive to expand there rather than here.  The fix is not to charge taxes on all money no matter where it is made, but to lower the corporate tax rate to eliminate the need to keep the money overseas. 

2.  Obama vs Romney Game On 


At the NATO Summit, President Obama said his opponent's private equity success vs. the administration's failed industrial policy was what this election was all about. Speaking at the bankrupt Solyndra headquarters, his GOP opponent agreed.

It is said a picture is worth a thousand words. The photo of Mitt Romney holding a surprise press conference in front of the headquarters of the bankrupt solar energy firm Solyndra poster may just be worth a good portion of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory in November.
"Two years ago President Obama was here to tout this building and this business as a symbol of the success of his stimulus," said Romney, stepping off a bus and onto the public sidewalk in front of the Solyndra buildings just outside Silicon Valley. "Well you can see that it's a symbol of something very different today."

Indeed, it is a symbol of the failure of the administration's green energy boondoggle, where over a half billion dollars has been spent to reward donors while subsidizing an uncompetitive company with a doomed business model.

Solyndra, where 1,100 employees lost their "green jobs," is only one of many green failures that included companies like Beacon Power, First Solar and Ener1, battery maker for President Obama's fantasy fleet of electric cars.

During a visit to Solyndra Inc.'s Fremont, Calif., facility in spring 2010, President Obama boasted of what the company was going to do with the $535 million in loan guarantees his stimulus package provided.
"We can see the positive impacts right here at Solyndra," he said. "(T)hrough the Recovery Act, this company received a loan to expand its operations. This new factory is the result of those loans." Loans that Romney pointed out, the taxpayers were left on the hook for. The $535 million loan guarantee that was issued despite the warnings of private and federal agencies helped build a plant the size of five football fields outfitted with whistling robots and spa-like showers.

At the NATO Summit, President Obama said he couldn't just think about profits for investors but the good of all the people, at least all the people like George Kaiser, the billionaire behind the Solyndra debacle. Frankly, we prefer the risks and chances for success of firms like Romney's Bain Capital versus the crony socialism involved in President Obama's backing of firms like Solyndra….


It’s pretty simple.  Obama’s crony capitalism vs Romney’s free market. 

3.  Wisconsin:  What’s at Stake

A single election rarely determines a democracy's fate, but some matter more than others. Tuesday's recall election of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is one that matters a great deal because it will test whether taxpayers have any hope of controlling the entitlement state and its dominant special interests.

Specifically, we will learn if a politician can dare to cross government unions and survive. Mr. Walker isn't facing this extraordinary midterm challenge because he and a GOP legislature asked public workers to pay 12.6% of their health insurance premiums and put 5.8% of their paychecks toward their pensions. Those are small sums compared to what private employees typically pay.

His political offense was daring to challenge the monopoly sway that public unions have come to hold over modern state government through collective bargaining. Public unions aren't like private unions that negotiate labor terms with a single company or workplace. Public unions have outsize influence because they can often buy the politicians who are supposed to represent taxpayers. The unions effectively sit on both sides of the bargaining table. 

Thus over time they have been able to extort excessive wages, benefits and pensions, as well as sweetheart contracts like the monopoly provision of health insurance. Their focused special interest trumps the general interest of taxpayers, who are busy making a living and lack the time to focus on politics other than during elections or amid a fiscal crisis….


In addition, many people are saying this election will be a forerunner of the coming Presidential election.  If in a highly unionized and progressive state like Wisconsin, Scott Walker wins, Obama is in big trouble.

4.  Bloomberg’s War on Sugar and the Left Applauds

There’s only one way to say something like this, and it’s loud and proud and without apology: I wholeheartedly support Mike Bloomberg’s war on sugar. It’s unassailable as policy. Refined sugar is without question the worst foodstuff in the world for human health, and high-fructose corn syrup is little better. We are a fat country getting fatter and fatter, and these mountains of refined sugar that people ingest are a big part of the reason. The costs to the health-care system are enormous, so the public interest here is ridiculously obvious. Obesity is a killer. Are we to do nothing, in the name of “liberty” that entitles millions of people to kill themselves however they please, whatever their diabetes treatments costs their insurers? We have this “liberty” business  completely backward in this country, and if Bloomberg can start rebalancing individual freedom and the public good, God bless him, I say…

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/06/02/michael-tomasky-mayor-bloomberg-is-right-to-declare-a-war-on-sugar.html

Columnist Michael Thomasky shows us where the left is coming from.  They will take over your life and take away your choices “for your own good.”  But this is an old story and we also know the end.  Because eventually they take away things not for your own good, but for someone else own good.  Remember back in the time of Henry VIII they burned people “for the good of their immortal souls” although I think it had more to do with insuring people stayed in the Catholic/Protestant church.  This is the nose of the camel. BTW I remember when it was salt that was the worst foodstuff in the world for human health.

5.  Another Reason Obama needs to Go

Does President Obama care more about jobs for Americans or about his own re-election chances?  A decision last week on natural gas exports provides the answer.

On Monday, the White House announced that it would postpone a decision until after the election on whether to allow natural gas exports to non-Free Trade Agreement countries.  While this is just one of a thousand decisions Obama has postponed for political reasons, it is an important one.  It puts hundreds of thousands of good jobs at risk.

For natural gas to be exported to countries in Europe and Asia, it must be liquefied at plants such as Cheniere Energy's plant at Sabine Pass, Texas.  The Sabine Pass liquification project, one of many under development or consideration, would create 50,000 jobs in the natural gas supply chain, in addition to jobs constructing and operating the plant itself.  Overall, a dozen such plants could create as many as 750,000 new jobs, and each of those jobs would spawn others as wages were spent on homes, cars, food, and other purchases.  But the president refuses to approve liquefied natural gas exports to non-FTA nations.  Is there some reason, other than politics, why the exportation of natural gas is acceptable only to nations with which the U.S. has free-trade agreements?

The only reason, it turns out, why the president is blocking LNG exports is his quaking fear of the environmental lobby….

Fossil Fuels are the wave of the future and that wave will help to heal our economy.  Natural gas used to be the most favored of the fossil fuels by the environmental lobby until they found lots of it and it became apparent it was a fuel that limits the need for green energy.  Now it seems to be public enemy number one with environmentalists claiming it’s dirtier than coal. 

6.  Who is Barack Obama

Conservative commentator Carol Platt Liebau,..described her relationship with Obama during her law school years. Despite his liberal slant, she said Obama was respectful of the conservative perspective when he was president of the Harvard Law Review.

“I knew him reasonably well — as well as most people knew him, if not better — because quite in contrast to this image that Barack tries to project, as someone who is warm and all-embracing and all that kind of stuff,” Liebau said.

“I mean, I will tell you I’ve written a piece that has praised Barack for certain things and I stand by that piece: He was color-blind in the way he chose, staffed the law review when he was president. He did give both sides a fair hearing. He always went with the far-left side, but he did give both sides a respectful hearing, which was fairly atypical at Harvard Law School at that time.”

… Her longest one-on-one communication with Obama, she said, came when she was managing editor of the Harvard Law Review.

“So I guess it caused a lot of rumbling that I didn’t know about, and so we were all impressed with a return visit by our retired president, the former president, Barack Obama, who took me out on the back steps of Gannett House, which is where the review was housed and wanted to have a little one-on-one with me,” she said.
Liebau said his advice started off sound, but ultimately came off as disappointing.

“He said, ‘Look, what do you care who does the work?’” Liebau recalled Obama saying in reference to her management of the law review. “’It is the same amount of work for you to hand out the work no matter who it goes to, so why fight it? Do what’s easiest for you. Give the work to the people who will do the work, and just don’t worry about the people who don’t want to pull their weight.’”

Liebau wasn’t impressed.

“I guess I was young and naïve: I was like, ‘Ah but that wouldn’t be fair,’” she said….


But he’s obviously grown since then.  If he were the same person, he would have probably come into office and given the Congress the task of writing the Stimulus Plan and ditto on the healthcare plan. 



7.  Environmentalist Turn Desperate

The National Wildlife Federation’s new publication "The Psychological Effects of Global Warming on the United States” gives wildlife a new meaning.  Citing evidence that many in the climate alarmist community are "frustrated and burned out," it quotes one member as trying to keep on persuading mankind that a climate apocalypse is at hand so "I will not be able to feel the angst or despair" of failure.
For nearly three decades, certain U.S., U.K., and U.N. activists, like NASA's James Hanson, have tried to sell governments on draconian centralized economic policies supposedly to save the planet.  Anyone disagreeing -- regardless of credentials and reasoning -- becomes the target of rhetorical terrorism.  But the skeptical resistance is so strong and growing so rapidly -- not just in the public, but also among scientists -- that the alarmists increasingly show signs of both despair and loss of self-control.
In his recent Forbes article, alarmist Steve Zwick, apparently inspired by Hanson's tirades, wants the scientifically unpersuaded to be hunted down and their homes burned.  Daniel Souweine of the Soros-funded Citizen Engagement Lab demands that TV weathercaster who disagree that man is the prime cause of climate change to be persecuted until they repent.

A rational person would think a call for psychological intervention would be directed against such behavior.  Not so.  The National Wildlife Federation (NWF) now calls upon government to bankroll massive intervention by the mental health community to deal with up to 200 million cases of stress from projected "climate related events and incidents."

Then, in language reminiscent of Mao Tse-tung’s education camps for the non-compliant, the NWF eagerly anticipates how government-funded psychological experts will break down denial and bring "rational thinking into decision making." …

This is what they used to do in the Soviet Union.  Anyone who didn’t love Communism was obviously mentally unbalanced and was put into mental hospitals.