Showing posts with label political lies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political lies. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Lies the Democrats are telling




What’s New Today

Story # 1 is today’s signs of desperation.  #2 punches holes in Obama’s claim that Bush ruined the economy. #3 is the blame game with Obama blaming everyone for everything.  #4 has Mother Jones turning on Harry Reid.  #5 is another scandal in the Obama Justice Department.  #6 looks at the ungrateful President.  #7 compares Romney Hood with Pinocchiobamanomics.  #8 looks at Obama’s method of paying people back.  


Today’s Thoughts

Jimmy Carter’s prime time slot at the Democratic National Convention is raising consternation among Jewish groups. Carter’s anti-Israeli comments are well known in the Jewish community.  

New Poll:  Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states shows:
    Colorado: Romney at 50 percent to Obama's 45 percent; 5% more Republicans polled
    Virginia: Obama at 49
percent to Romney's 45 percent; 7% more Democrats polled
    Wisconsin: Obama
edges Romney 51 - 45 percent; 7% more Democrats polled.              
What makes this interesting is that in Colorado there are 2% more Republicans than Democrats, in VA there are 3% more Republicans than Democrats and in Wisconsin there are 4% more Democrats than Republicans.  This means it is closer in Colorado and Wisconsin than the poll indicates and in Virginia Romney probably is ahead. 


1.  Signs of Desperation

Earlier today, pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA released an ad in which Joe Soptic discusses how he lost his job because Bain closed a GST Steel plant in Kansas City, Missouri, in 2001, and notes that his wife passed away of cancer not long after, suggesting that she waited to see a doctor (she had stage 4 cancer by the time she received medical attention) because of the couple’s lack of health insurance.

Well, first it turned out that Soptic’s wife, Ranae Soptic, died in 2006 — five years after the GST Steel plant closed. And now, CNN reports that Soptic told them that Ranae Soptic had health insurance through 2002 or 2003, due to her job at a local thrift store (hat tip: Greg Pollowitz):…


Truth certainly has been a casualty in the Obama’s campaign.  It reeks of desperation.

  
2. The Blame Game: Obama’s wrong to Blame Bush

It’s probably President Obama’s most politically effective line of attack against Mitt Romney.
The president argues that it was the unchecked, reckless, casino capitalism of the George W. Bush years — bank deregulation, tax cuts for the rich — that lead to the nation’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. And if Mitt Romney is elected in November, the Republican will bring those policies right back, risking another financial collapse.

Here’s what Obama said during that same speech where he told America’s entrepreneurs that “you didn’t build that”:

But I just want to point out that we tried their theory for almost 10 years … and it culminated in a crisis because there weren’t enough regulations on Wall Street and they could make reckless bets with other people’s money that resulted in this financial crisis, and you had to foot the bill. So that’s where their theory turned out.

But a book by Robert Hetzel, a senior economist at Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, says it wasn’t Bushonomics or greedy bankers or broken markets that caused the Great Recession. In The Great Recession: Market Failure or Policy Failure, Hetzel pins the blame squarely on the Federal Reserve and Team Bernanke.

Oh, the downturn first started with “correction of an excess in the housing stock and a sharp increase in energy prices” — the housing bust and the oil shock. Indeed, those two things were enough, in Hetzel’s view, to cause a “moderate recession” beginning in December 2007.

But only a moderate one. It was the Fed’s monetary policy miscues after the downturn began that turned a run-of-the-mill downturn into a once-in-a century disaster. Hetzel:

A moderate recession became a major recession in summer 2008 when the [Federal Open Market Committee] ceased lowering the federal funds rate while the economy deteriorated. The central empirical fact of the 2008-2009 recession is that the severe declines in output that in appeared in the [second quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009] … had already been locked in by summer 2008.

Not only did the Fed leave rates alone between April 2008 and October 2008 as the economy deteriorated, but the FOMC “effectively tightened monetary policy in June by pushing up the expected path of the federal funds rate through the hawkish statements of its members. In May 2008, federal funds futures had been predicting the rate to remain at 2% through November. By mid-June, that forecast had risen to 2.5%.

And it wasn’t just the U.S. central bank. Hetzel thinks all the major central banks — the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, sat on their hands as the global economy weakened. “The fact that the severe contraction in output began in all these countries in 2008:Q2 is more readily explained by a common restrictive monetary policy than by contagion from the then still-mild U.S. recession, Hetzel writes in a Fed Paper that inspired the book. “Restrictive monetary policy rather than the deleveraging in financial markets that had begun in August 2007 offers a more direct explanation of the intensification of the recession that began in the summer of 2008. Irony abounds.”…

So Obama’s basic premise is completely wrong.  It started with the housing bubble (blame Fannie and Freddie) and was turned further south by the Fed. In both cases what we had was a failure of regulatory agencies and policies, not a failure of the market. 

3.  The Blame Game:  State, Local governments and Congress to blame

In an interview with Black Enterprise magazine, President Barack Obama blames state and local governments, as well as Congress, for over 14 percent black unemployment.

"Black unemployment still stands at nearly 14%. How do you communicate that the economy is headed in the right direction?," the editor in chief of Black Enterprise asks Obama.

"Most economists will tell you that there is no doubt the economy has gotten stronger, but we are digging ourselves out a deep hole. There are a lot more things we could be doing. To get them done, we need cooperation of Congress. We got the payroll tax portion of [my American Jobs Act] done, but what we didn’t get done is the assistance I was proposing to the states to help them hire back teachers, firefighters, and first responders, because one of the weakest parts of this recovery has been state and local government hiring," Obama responds.

"Given the weaknesses of the construction industry, the American Jobs Act proposed that we rebuild schools, roads, bridges, airport, and ports. That would provide small businesses with opportunities as contractors and vendors in this rebuilding process. Again, Congress needs to act."

According to the BLS, black unemployment in the month of July was at 14.1 percent….


Have you noticed how often Obama says I when talking about accomplishments, but he never seems to take responsibility for failures.  That not leadership, it’s scapegoating.


4.  It’s Time to Stop Celebrating Harry Reid

Here is Harry Reid on Mitt Romney's taxes: "I was told by an extremely credible source that Romney has not paid taxes for 10 years." PolitiFact rates this a Pants on Fire Lie.

An awful lot of liberals disagree. Typical reasons include sophistry ("PolitiFact doesn't know that Romney paid any taxes"); revenge ("Romney's been telling lots of lies, so why shouldn't we?"); disingenuousness ("All Romney has to do is release his tax returns to clear this up"); or lying as a virtue ("Politics ain't beanbag").
Come on, folks. Reid didn't say I'll bet Romney didn't pay any taxes. He didn't say he talked to someone familiar with high earners who told him Maybe Romney won't release his returns because he didn't pay any taxes. He made a flat statement of fact. He said he has an "extremely credible source," which in this context means someone with direct knowledge of Romney's taxes who decided to pick up the phone and dish about it to Harry Reid. Does anyone really believe this? Really? Then, as if that weren't enough, Reid made his little bluff even less plausible by deciding that Romney didn't just avoid all taxes for one year, he avoided them for ten years. Yeah, baby, that's the ticket! Put these two things together with the fact that Reid hasn't even tried to make his fairy tale sound believable (it's just some guy he talked to) and this is not a story that a five-year-old would credit. It's just Reid making stuff up in order to put pressure on Romney, and I think we all know it.

Can I prove this? Of course not. Given the epistemological limits of proof, I can't prove Barack Obama was born in the United States either. Nevertheless, I feel safe saying that anyone who claims to have an "extremely credible source" that Obama was born elsewhere is either crazy or lying. The same is true for Reid, and Reid isn't crazy. It's simply vanishingly unlikely that he's telling the truth, and no one — not liberal or conservative — would spend even ten seconds on a story so patently far-fetched if it were anybody but Reid and the background were anything but the frenzy of a presidential campaign….


When Mother Jones turns on you and you are a Democrat, you know you’ve jumped the shark.  What’s the outcome of this?  Does this put pressure on Romney or does this take credibility away from future charges the Obama campaign will make? 


5.  Justice Department Perjury?

Late last month, the Obama/Holder Justice Department suffered another embarrassment, and showed that its leaders probably merit criminal prosecution, in a too-little-noticed spin-off from the infamous New Black Panther Party case. As I have written repeatedly, the politicized leadership of the Holderites is thoroughly corrupt, and a menace to the very cause of justice.

The embarrassment came in the final court action of a long-running suit brought by the indefatigable Judicial Watch. The watchdog group had pressed requests based on the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) to force the Department of Justice (DoJ) to divulge more information about its seemingly inexplicable, and certainly unexplained, decision to drop voter-intimidation cases against the Panthers for their actions outside of a Philadelphia polling place in 2008. As it has done in numerous other instances, the Obama administration stonewalled, claimed spurious "privileges" against disclosure, and prevaricated wildly through its embarrassingly unprofessional press office and via sworn testimony by Assistant Attorney General Thomas Perez. Yet Judicial Watch prevailed in part, even against a none-too-friendly judge, thus forcing the release of some of the withheld records.

The latest ruling from federal district judge Reggie Walton involved Judicial Watch's request for the government to pay its attorneys' fees as a result of Judicial Watch's partial win. The judge agreed that the government ought to be liable for at least some of those fees. In doing so, he wrote the following passages, which would be deeply embarrassing for any administration with the grace to feel embarrassment, especially if an establishment media weren't pathetically in the pocket of said administration:

The documents reveal that political appointees within DOJ were conferring about the status and resolution of the New Black Panther Party case in the days preceding the DOJ's dismissal of claims in that case, which would appear to contradict Assistant Attorney General Perez's testimony that political leadership was not involved in that decision.  Surely the public has an interest in documents that cast doubt on the accuracy of government officials' representations regarding the possible politicization of agency decision making.  

And:

The Court therefore concludes that the DOJ has failed to show that its withholding of some documents from Judicial Watch prior to the filing of this lawsuit was legally correct or had a reasonable basis in law…

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/08/08/holders-perez-perjury-on-panth

So the Justice Department is working outside the law.  It’s time for Holder to go.

6.  Maureen Dowd:  The Ungrateful President

…“Needy politicians, like Bill Clinton, recharge at political events,” says Alter. “But, for Obama, they deplete rather than create energy.” 

Richard Wolffe, the author of Obama portraits, “Renegade” and “Revival,” agreed: “The very source of his strength as an individual, that he willed himself into being, that he’s a solitary figure who doesn’t need many people, is also clearly a weakness. There are people who’ve worked with him for years who don’t understand why he gives so little back.”
 
From the first time Obama made a splash with an anti-apartheid speech at Occidental College, says David Maraniss, author of “Barack Obama: The Story,” he has been ambivalent, even perverse.
“He realized that he could stir crowds while also thinking to himself that it was all a game and posturing,” the biographer said. “He is always removed and participating at the same time, self-conscious and without the visceral need or love of transactional politics that would characterize Bill Clinton or L.B.J. or even W., in a way.” 

What will save him, Maraniss believes, is his fierce competitive will. “His is cool and Clinton’s is hot, but they burn at the same temperature inside,” he said. “So he does some of what he finds distasteful, but not all of it, and not all of it very well.” …


Obama may be passionate, but he appears to be lazy and ungrateful.  Obama’s solution to a problem is not to roll up his sleeves, but to give a speech.  His ability to stir crowds may be his greatest strength, but it is also his greatest weakness the one that has resulted in a failed presidency. 

7.  Romneyhood vs Pinocchiobama

As he escalates his class war re-election campaign, President Obama has taken to calling Mitt Romney's economic plan "Robin Hood in reverse" or "Romney Hood." The charge is that even though Mr. Romney is proposing to cut tax rates for everybody across the board, Mr. Romney will finance this by imposing a tax increase on the middle class. His evidence is a single study by the Tax Policy Center, a liberal think tank that has long opposed cutting income tax rates.

The political left always says Daddy Warbucks gets all the tax-cut money. So this is hardly news, except that the media are treating this joint Brookings Institution and Urban Institute analysis as if it's nonpartisan gospel. In fact, it's a highly ideological tract based on false assumptions, incomplete data and dishonest analysis. In other words, it is custom made for the Obama campaign.

By the way, even the Tax Policy Center admits that "we do not score Governor Romney's plan directly as certain components of his plan are not specified in sufficient detail." But no matter, the study plows ahead to analyze features of the Romney plan that aren't even in it.

***

The heart of Mr. Romney's actual proposal is a 20% rate cut for anyone who pays income taxes. This means, for example, that the 10% rate would fall to 8%, the 35% rate would fall to 28% and all the brackets in between would fall as well. The corporate tax would fall to 25% from 35%.

The plan says these cuts would be financed in a revenue-neutral way. First, by "broadening the tax base," which means reducing or eliminating tax deductions and loopholes as in the tax reform of 1986. The Romney campaign doesn't specify which deductions—no campaign ever does—but it has been explicit in saying that the burden would fall most on higher tax brackets. So in return for paying lower rates, the wealthy get fewer deductions….

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443792604577574910276629448.html

 It always amazes me how the left creates tax loopholes (target tax cuts is what they call them) and then rails against those loopholes when people take advantage of them.  And when Republicans lower tax rates on everyone, suddenly they are only lowering them for the rich.  But that is Pinocchiobamanomics. 



8.  Payback Obama Style

In recent days, the scope of the Obama White House's cronyism has become shockingly apparent. A trove of emails shows it deprived thousands of workers of their pensions to benefit unions, then lied about it.

The news site The Daily Caller has obtained internal government emails that show the U.S. Treasury Department, led by Timothy Geithner, pushed in 2009 to end the pensions of 20,000 non-union employees of GM's Delphi auto parts unit as part of the auto bailout.

What's truly outrageous is that, while those workers were cheated of their full pensions, union employees of the same Delphi company got their pensions paid.

This financially ruinous favoritism of union workers over nonunion workers is blatantly unfair, illegal and a violation of Constitutional guarantees of equal treatment under the law. And the reason is political.
By its own reckoning, organized labor spent nearly $400 million to get Obama elected in 2008, more by far than any other interest group. So it's no surprise the White House punished nonunion workers and rewarded union members when it came time to "bail out" GM.

Total value of the auto industry bailout to the unions was, by one estimate, $26 billion. For the unions, their $400 million was money well spent indeed….


Just another example of cronyism and why the growth of government is so harmful to a merit based society.  The feds spend 24% of the nation’s GDP and with Obamacare control another 15%.  That is a recipe for corruption.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Update with 99 days to go



What’s New Today

Story #1 is today’s sign of desperation from the Obama Campaign.  #2 is a poll that shows after all the negative ads on Mr. Romney’s character, the voters don’t see any difference between Governor Romney and President Obama.  #3 reviews Romney’s speech in Israel.  #4 reviews the hope and change for 2012.  #5 shows that Obama is lying to himself.  #6 is a story about voter fraud.  #7 is an excellent article explaining while 2004 and 2012 are totally different.  #8 looks a sexual predators who are teaching in our schools.  


Today’s Thoughts

If you watched the opening ceremony of the London Olympics you were treated to homage to the NHS (Britain’s National Health Service).  Celebrating the NHS is definitely a left wing dream as in 2009, it was reported that approximately 300 patients died each year of malnutrition in British hospital wards. Starving their patients to death is not good medicine.

It appears Obama’s change on gay marriage has allowed Democrats to play the bigot card.  The problem is the card is overdrawn and doesn’t work anymore.  

A $38.6 billion loan guarantee program that the Obama administration promised would create or save 65,000 jobs has created just a few thousand jobs two years after it began, government records show.  The program has directly created 3,545 new, permanent jobs after giving out almost half the allocated amount, according to Energy Department tallies.   Obama doesn’t have a clue. 

 Richard Miniter writes that Obama canceled the Osama bin Laden “kill” mission  in January 2011, again in February, and a third time in March.  Obama’s close adviser Valerie Jarrett persuaded him to hold off each time, according to the book. 

1.  Signs of Desperation

David Axelrod’s anxiety over Barak Obama’s reelection chances is now on full display. In the latest personal e-mail from the Obama campaign, Axelrod starts to act paranoid:
You know what's kind of amazing?

That we're not getting blown away in the face of unprecedented, unlimited spending from super PACs, Mitt Romney, and all the other shadowy groups trashing Barack Obama nonstop.
Shadowy groups? Is he hallucinating? Perhaps his boss has reinstituted the Choom Gang and Axelrod has been puffing away – the donors to Romney’s campaign and pro-Romney Super PACs has received consistent and brutal scrutiny.

It’s worth noting the violent language here. For a campaign that whines about incivility on a regular basis to use the phrase “blown away” is inconsistent, to say the least.
Axelrod continues:

In June, nearly 80 percent of the money Romney and the Republicans raised came from just 6 percent of the donations they received -- and that's before we count the super PACs. The other side relies on fewer people giving more, and with this year's new rules, it's a lot more.

Even with all that, we're still in a position of strength heading into the final three months of this race, thanks to grassroots supporters like you. When I talk to a reporter or go on TV, I'm damn proud to tell people that….

I do believe the left is not only desperate, but delusional as well. 



2.  As Obama attacks Romney’s Character, voters see no difference

Mitt Romney holds thin advantages over President Obama on leadership, personal values and honesty, according to a new poll for The Hill.

The poll, conducted for The Hill by Pulse Opinion Research, suggests voters see little difference between the candidates on character issues that Democrats have cited as key to Obama’s appeal
. 
It found 48 percent of voters consider Romney the stronger leader, compared to 44 percent who favored Obama.

Similarly, 47 percent of likely voters also said Romney most shares their values while 44 percent picked Obama.

When asked which candidate voters considered more honest and trustworthy, 46 percent said Romney and 44 percent said Obama — a result within the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error.

The results may prompt new questions about the effectiveness of the Obama campaign’s effort to characterize Romney as a calculating former corporate executive who has little in common with ordinary voters….


If these factors are equal, what’s a voter to do?  Perhaps look at Obama’s record over the past three years?


3.  Romney’s Remarkable Speech in Jerusalem

Mitt Romney, the all-but-official Republican presidential nominee, delivered a stem winder of a speech to the Jerusalem Foundation yesterday, packing emotional support with frank policy statements. The contrast with Obama could hardly be more dramatic. Indeed, one could go through the speech and note the many refutations of Obama. For example, the opening comment that “To step foot into Israel is to step foot into a nation that began with an ancient promise made in this land” directly contrasts with Obama’s crabbed statement in Cairo about “the aspiration for a Jewish homeland [being] rooted in a tragic history.”

Also, in contrast to the nonsensical Obama administration stance on Jerusalem being Israel’s capital — sneaking into change captions that mistakenly identified it as that and going through verbal gymnastics to avoid calling it that — Romney came out and plainly called Jerusalem “the capital of Israel.”…

… But of the whole speech, it is the final words that most struck me: “May God bless America, and may He bless and protect the Nation of Israel.” When last did a politician ask the Lord to protect another country and not his own?

Comments: (1) Obama and Romney stand as far apart on Israel as they do on the sources of economic growth. (2) Over and over again, Romney returned to the moral bonds between the two countries; yes, there are mutual benefits from our connection, but ultimately it reflects something higher and greater than any of us. (3) If he is elected, it will be fascinating to watch to what extent the outlook expressed today will translate to the workaday policy issues. I expect it will have a substantial effect. 


Romney’s trip to Israel is a success by any measure.  Perhaps someday Obama can scout out Israel to see if he and the family should visit it on vacation. 


4.  Hope for Change

The presidential campaign remains very close, but some of the polling information must continue to cause alarm in the Obama campaign. Sixty-five percent of respondents in a recent Rasmussen Reports poll felt our nation was on the "wrong track," and surveys by National Public Radio and ABC News/Washington Post showed similar results. Sixty-four percent of respondents in a recent CBS News poll thought President Obama's policies have contributed "some" or "a lot" to the economic turndown. And as the election gets closer, the president's approval rating continues to lag below the all-important 50% mark in almost every survey.

Americans are frustrated over today's economy and worried about the direction of our country. To some degree they blame Mr. Obama for the weak economy and his policies for stifling economic growth. But our nation's overall dissatisfaction can also be attributed to a disappointment in the way that this president has governed.  The Obama administration has forced policies either by ramming them through Congress or implementing them unilaterally when lawmakers refused. And Mr. Obama's politics, contrary to his promise of postpartisanship, have been the most partisan and cynical we have seen in a long while. All this is obvious in many matters:

• Taxes. Big tax hikes coming in January will serve as dampers on economic growth.  ObamaCare imposes a new 3.8% tax on investment income. On top of that, if the Bush tax increases aren't extended, the top income tax rates will rise to 23.8% from 15% on capital gains and to 43.4% from 15% on dividends….

…• Energy. The American people hear Mr. Obama talk about a broad energy strategy, but they see an administration that has attacked the coal industry with onerous regulations, done little or nothing to assist the natural gas boom, done what it can to slow down oil production, and wasted money on other initiatives that please green supporters but don't lower the cost of energy. 

• Health care. Although ObamaCare remains unpopular, the Supreme Court ruling upholding it means that a 17% transfer of our economy from the marketplace to the control of the federal government is coming unless Congress and a President Romney can stop it. At a time when our nation needs lower taxes and more flexibility in health-care decisions, ObamaCare has increased taxes by hundreds of billions of dollars and allowed government to regulate most of our health care decisions….


So basically what the American people are seeing is that things cost more, are taxed more while the results are less than what it used to be.  Obama is toast in November. 

5.  Obama lies again—this time to himself

Mitt Romney's presidential campaign has been slamming President Obama for a statement he made about the economy in a recent speech: "We tried our plan," Obama said, "and it worked." Taken out of context, it sounds like he is claiming credit for mending the economy. In context, however, it appears that Obama was referring to the Clinton years as the time when Democrats tried "our plan" -- a plan that included raising taxes -- and the economy did well.

As we noted last week, this is a revisionist view of the Clinton era, which produced its greatest economic boom only after Clinton cut taxes on high-income investors and inheritors in 1997. But it's not hard to see why Romney is playing up Obama's quote. It sounds damning because no one in America believes that Obama's economic plan has worked in any sense of the word -- not even the president himself can possibly believe it….


The only things Obama has left are lies and he apparently is doing what Dr. Goebbels said could happen.  “If you tell a lie often enough, pretty soon you’ll begin to believe it yourself.”


6.  NAACP Executive sentence for voter Fraud

While NAACP President Benjamin Jealous lashed out at new state laws requiring photo ID for voting, an NAACP executive sits in prison, sentenced for carrying out a massive voter fraud scheme.

In a story ignored by the national media, in April a Tunica County, Miss., jury convicted NAACP official Lessadolla Sowers on 10 counts of fraudulently casting absentee ballots. Sowers is identified on an NAACP website as a member of the Tunica County NAACP Executive Committee.

Sowers received a five-year prison term for each of the 10 counts, but Circuit Court Judge Charles Webster permitted Sowers to serve those terms concurrently, according to the Tunica Times, the only media outlet to cover the sentencing.

“This crime cuts against the fabric of our free society,” Judge Webster said.

Sowers was found guilty of voting in the names of Carrie Collins, Walter Howard, Sheena Shelton, Alberta Pickett, Draper Cotton and Eddie Davis. She was also convicted of voting in the names of four dead persons: James L. Young, Dora Price, Dorothy Harris, and David Ross.

In the trial, forensic scientist Bo Scales testified that Sowers’s DNA was found on the inner seals of five envelopes containing absentee ballots….

…The NAACP has had other problems with voter fraud. The NAACP National Voter Fund registered a dead man to vote in Lake County, Ohio, in 2004. That same year, out of 325 voter registration cards filed by the NAACP in Cleveland, 48 were flagged as fraudulent.

But the NAACP’s voter fraud record doesn’t approach that of ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. At least 54 individuals employed by or associated with ACORN have been convicted of voter fraud….


Liberals still don’t believe voter fraud is a problem.  


7.  Will 2012 be a repeat of 2004?

…As in 2004, the incumbent has been running negative ads against the challenger, hoping to disqualify him as Bill Clinton disqualified Bob Dole in 1996. Many Democrats think that Barack Obama's attacks on Mitt Romney's business career will have the same effect that they think the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads had on John Kerry in 2004.

But, as William Galston of the Brookings Institution, an alumnus of the Clinton White House, writes in The New Republic, "the evidence in favor of all these propositions is remarkably thin."

Galston points out that in 2004 no single issue was as prominent as the economy is this year and that on most significant issues George W. Bush had a clear edge by the end of the campaign. He cites polling evidence that the Swift Boat ads hurt Kerry less than did Bush ads replaying his March statement that "I did actually vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it."…

…But there are at least two other salient differences between 2004 and 2012.

One is that the 2004 election occurred during a period of unusual stability in American voting behavior.

In the preceding four congressional elections, Republicans won between 48 and 51 percent of the popular vote for the House and Democrats won between 46 and 49 percent. In 2004 the parties' percentages in both the presidential and congressional popular vote were within the same narrow ranges.

Since then, voting behavior has been much more volatile. In the last three congressional elections, Republicans' share of the House popular vote has ranged from 43 to 52 percent and Democrats' share from 45 to 54 percent.

In 2004, only three states cast their electoral votes for a different party than in 2000, and the margins were narrow in all cases.

In other words, almost all voters in 2004 were firmly committed to one party or the other. Bush political supremo Karl Rove was right in saying there were few uncommitted voters and that his campaign's big task was to turn out the faithful. The Kerry campaign operated on the same assumption.

But in recent years, lots of American voters, at least by historical standards, have flipped from one party to the other, and in both directions.

The conventional wisdom is that we know with certainty the identity of the dozen or so battleground states. But the list has changed since 2008.

In 2008, Obama carried Indiana and lost Missouri by only 3,903 votes. Today, Indiana and Missouri aren't on anyone's target list.

In contrast, most analysts' battleground list this year includes Michigan and Wisconsin, which Obama carried in 2008 with 57 and 56 percent of the vote…


Getting out the base isn’t enough in 2012.  There aren’t enough Democrats to reelect Obama.  Most of the polls that have it tied or Obama slightly ahead have demographics with the Democrats holding a 7-12 percent advantage over Republican voters.  That isn’t going to happen.  Right now Romney is up by approximately 5% with 4-5% undecided.  The undecided will break approximately 75% for Romney which means he’s likely to win by 8% or more. 

8.  Teacher’s Unions Protect Sexual Predators

By resisting almost any change aimed at improving our public schools, teachers unions have become a ripe target for reformers across the ideological spectrum. Even Hollywood, famously sympathetic to organized labor, has turned on unions with the documentary "Waiting for 'Superman'" (2010) and a feature film, "Won't Back Down," to be released later this year. But perhaps most damaging to the unions' credibility is their position on sexual misconduct involving teachers and students in New York schools, which is even causing union members to begin to lose faith.

In the last five years in New York City, 97 tenured teachers or school employees have been charged by the Department of Education with sexual misconduct. Among the charges substantiated by the city's special commissioner of investigation—that is, found to have sufficient merit that an arbitrator's full examination was justified—in the 2011-12 school year:

• An assistant principal at a Brooklyn high school made explicit sexual remarks to three different girls, including asking one of them if she would perform oral sex on him.

• A teacher in Queens had a sexual relationship with a 13-year old girl and sent her inappropriate messages through email and Facebook.

If this kind of behavior were happening in any adult workplace in America, there would be zero tolerance. Yet our public school children are defenseless.

Here's why. Under current New York law, an accusation is first vetted by an independent investigator. (In New York City, that's the special commissioner of investigation; elsewhere in the state, it can be an independent law firm or the local school superintendent.) Then the case goes before an employment arbitrator. The local teachers union and school district together choose the arbitrators, who in turn are paid up to $1,400 per day. And therein lies the problem. 

For many arbitrators, their livelihood depends on pleasing the unions (whether the United Federation of Teachers in New York City, or other local unions). And the unions—believing that they are helping the cause of teachers by being weak on sexual predators—prefer suspensions and fines, and not dismissal, for teachers charged with inappropriate sexual conduct. The effects of this policy are mounting….


There is a major problem with sexual abuse in the public schools even though you never hear about it. This problem has been estimate by Carol Shakeshaft as “likely more than 100 times the abuse by [Catholic] priests.”