Showing posts with label generic poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label generic poll. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Public vs Private and why Obama is in trouble



What’s New Today

Story #1 relates to the public sector and how it’s doing with regard to unemployment.  #2 looks at the public sector as far spending is going.  #3 looks at how the American public is doing (not so good).  #4 warns the young voters may not vote this year.  #5 has James Carville warning the democrats that they must shift the discussion away from the economy.  #6 gives us the latest from Rasmussen on the generic battle.  And finally #7 looks at Obama’s high speed rail dreams.

Today’s Thoughts

Howard Dean: “I’m not one of those who thought last week was a bad week for the Democrats, I actually thought it was a good week for the Democrats.”  Looking back on it the way things are going for the Democrats (read story 1), Dean may be right.

Margaret Thatcher warned that a single currency could not accommodate both industrial powerhouses such as Germany and smaller countries such as Greece.  Thatcher predicted the currency would harm poorer countries because it would "devastate their inefficient economies."

On Tuesday night, blogger David Burge of the Iowa Hawk blog tweeted: “The principal delusion of liberals is that liberalism is popular. The principal delusion of conservatives is that liberalism is popular.”

There is an old saying, “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you see every problem as a nail.”  This pretty much sums up Obama’s approach to the economy.  The hammer of government is the only solution Obama sees.


1.  How is the Public sector doing?


President Obama's claim Friday that "the private sector is doing fine" sparked a firestorm of attacks from Republicans and prompted a quick retraction, of sorts, from Obama, who later said "it is absolutely clear that the economy is not doing fine."

But what has gone largely unnoticed was Obama's complaint that it's the government that's hurting these days. "Where we're seeing weaknesses in our economy," he said Friday, "have to do with state and local government."

Even when he tried to walk back his comment later that day, Obama said that the private sector is showing "some good momentum" but the bigger problem is state and local government cutbacks.
And over the weekend, Obama's top adviser, David Axelrod, argued that the private sector is "certainly doing better than the public sector."

But a review of data from several government sources paints a different picture. State and local government spending and revenues are up, and while state and local government jobs are down slightly, these losses pale in comparison with the damage done to private-sector jobs over the past four years.

Here's a rundown:

State spending: Despite the deep recession and the slow recovery, annual state spending overall hasn't dropped once. In fact, by fiscal 2011, total outlays at the state level were 14% higher than they were in 2008, according to the National Association of State Budget officers. (See nearby chart.)…

http://news.investors.com/article/614516/201206120801/state-and-local-governments-growing.htm

From the looks of it, the public sector is doing fine.  It’s the private sector that is in the need of attention primarily in giving it some certainty in tax rates and in cutting down on regulations.

2.  The Public Sector is Doing Fine 

“It’s very clear that private sector jobs are doing just fine.”
 
Sound familiar? These words are not President Obama’s. They were spoken six months ago by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. While pushing a Democratic proposal to spend another $35 billion we don’t have to help states hire more public workers, Reid declared: “It’s very clear that private-sector jobs have been doing just fine; it’s the public-sector jobs where we’ve lost huge numbers.” At last week’s news conference, Obama simply repeated the point  Reid made last October.

Jared Bernstein, a former Obama economic adviser, said the president’s gaffe won’t do lasting damage “because that’s not the way he sees it.” But as Reid’s comment demonstrates, that is precisely how Obama and Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill see it. They’ve been saying for months that the private sector is doing fine and that the solution to our unemployment problems is to spend even more taxpayer money to hire more government workers. 

Obama and Reid have it precisely backward: It’s the public sector that’s doing fine. According to the BLS, the unemployment rate for government workers last month was just 4.2 percent (up slightly from 3.9 percent a year ago). Compare that to private-sector industries such as construction (14.2 percent unemployment), leisure and hospitality services (9.7 percent), agriculture (9.5 percent), professional and business services (8.5 percent) and wholesale and retail trade (8.1 percent). As Andrew Biggs of the American Enterprise Institute points out, the public-sector unemployment rate “is the lowest of any industry or class of worker, even including the growing energy industry.” If the rest of Americans enjoyed the same unemployment rate as government workers, Obama would be cruising to reelection….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/its-the-public-sector-thats-doing-fine/2012/06/11/gJQAKNpvUV_story.html

Do you think Obama would be in trouble if the unemployment rate for the country was 4.2%?  But 4.2% raises alarm bells with Progressives when it is the unemployment rate for government workers. 

3.  Net Worth of American family down 40% since Obama became President

The net worth of the American family has fallen to its lowest level in two decades, according to government data released Monday, driven by a more than 40 percent drop in their stakes in their homes.
The Federal Reserve’s detailed survey of consumer finances showed families’ median wealth plunged from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010 — a 39 percent decline. That put them on par with median wealth in 1992. 


What the old joke?  If it weren’t for bad luck, Obama wouldn’t have any luck at all?  November is not going to be kind to the Democrats (he’ll be pulling a lot of them down with him).  


 
4.  Young Voters Dropping Out says Zogby

Nearly four years after enthusiastic younger voters poured into polling booths to help push Barack Obama over the finish line and into the Oval Office, their hope has turned to fear and pollster John Zogby says that they are ready to give up on politics.

“I truly am worried about today's twenty-somethings,” he frets. “They are our global generation and I have seen them move from hope and grand expectations for themselves and their world to anxiety and disillusionment. We can't afford to lose them,” he adds.

Zogby previewed his remarks to the League of Women Voters 50th anniversary convention Monday night with Secrets. His worry: that younger voters will stop voting.


Well the youth vote is important to liberals and Zogby is a liberal so of course he worries that younger voters will stop voting.  So this is bad news to everyone on the left. 

5.  Carville: Shift the narrative away from the economy or Die

Late Monday, James Carville’s Democracy Corps released a strategic memo that lays out a stark reality for President Obama and the Democrats: Shift the campaign narrative away from the economy, or die. Titled “Shift the Economic Narrative,” the memo encapsulates focus group work done by Democracy Corps to assess what voters are thinking. The memo says “[Voters] know we are in a new normal where life is a struggle — and convincing them that things are good enough for those who have found jobs is a fool’s errand. They want to know the plans for making things better in a serious way — not just focused on finishing up the work of the recovery.”

The above flatly repudiates President Obama’s “the private sector is doing fine” statement made during Friday’s press conference. It also points out that if the president’s economic plans are not seen as serious, they will go nowhere.

The memo goes on to note some of Mitt Romney’s vulnerabilities, before delivering this hammer blow: “But we underscore the sentiment [the voters] expressed in the postcards to the President they wrote at the end of the exercise: overwhelmingly, these voters want to know that he understands the struggle of working families and has plans to make things better.”


There are two parts to this.  First Obama needs to convince voters he “feels their pain.” Second he needs to convince them he has a plan that will make it better for them.  Sounds like the Democrats need Bill Clinton, not Barack Obama. 

6.  Rasmussen:  Generic Republican Lead Generic Democrat by 6%

Republicans lead Democrats by six points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, June 10.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. Republicans led by seven points  the week before, 44% to 37%.


Here are more warnings for the Democrats.



7.  High Speed Rail

From solar panel manufacturer Solyndra (which received a $535 million federal loan guarantee and later declared bankruptcy) to electric car-maker Fisker Automotive (which used a $529 million federal loan to create jobs in Finland), President Obama's landmark economic stimulus legislation is rife with failures. But the California High-Speed Rail project serves as a particularly sterling example of what happens when idealistic big government liberalism has to face cold, hard reality.

Obama has pushed high-speed rail throughout his presidency, billing it as a way to create jobs, improve transportation and protect the environment by reducing carbon emissions. The economic stimulus package included $8 billion in funding for bullet train projects, and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood told National Public Radio that "President Obama would like to be known as the high-speed rail president." In his 2011 State of the Union address, Obama called for giving "80 percent of Americans access to high-speed rail" within 25 years as part of his plan for "winning the future." His budget for 2013 asked for $47 billion in funding for high-speed rail over the next six years.

Though Obama has not wavered in his commitment to high-speed rail, residents of the Golden State, home to the nation's most ambitions rail project, have soured on the idea. A Los Angeles Times poll released last week found 59 percent of Californians now oppose the state's high-speed rail plan, and 69 percent said they would never or hardly ever ride the train even if it were built. The San Jose Mercury News, once a proponent of the project, called the plan "delusional" in an editorial over the weekend, urging the state legislature to kill it….


I think Obama will end up being known as the “going off the high speed rails President.”
 

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Obama and 2012

Obama declares war on House Republicans

President Obama, on the road and seemingly excited to be there, unleashed an assault on Congress and his Republican rivals, accusing them of making the economy worse and threatening their political futures.

In nakedly political terms, OBAMA SPOKE REPEATEDLY ABOUT CHALLENGING CONGRESS IN NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS IF THEY REFUSE TO COMPROMISE WITH HIM ON THE ECONOMY, and he took thinly veiled swipes at his Republican opponents.
As the president embarked on his Midwestern bus tour, stopping in Minnesota and Iowa and small businesses along the way, he fired off his most intense criticism of Congress yet, WARNING LAWMAKERS THEY WILL BE DEFEATED IF THEY CONTINUE TO OBSTRUCT HIS POLICIES….

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/176971-unleashed-from-washington-obama-declares-war-on-house-gop

I don’t know if Obama is simply delusional or is living in a time warp where he thinks it is 2008 and he still doesn’t have a record that he will be held accountable for.

Generic Poll: Republicans +7

Republicans have bounced back to a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 14.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 37% would choose the Democrat instead. THE GOP’S LEAD IS UP FIVE POINTS FROM A WEEK AGO, THE FIRST FULL WEEK SURVEY SINCE CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT AGREED ON A SPENDING CUTS DEAL TO RAISE THE FEDERAL DEBT CEILING. Last week’s two-point gap was the narrowest lead Republicans had held since mid-May.

REPUBLICANS HAVE LED ON THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT EVERY WEEK SINCE JUNE 2009, leading by as much as 12 points and as little as two. The week before Election Day last November, support for Republicans peaked at 51%, the highest level of support either party has enjoyed in the last two years. GOP support has remained in the narrow range of 41% to 44% since late March, while Democrats have earned 37% to 40% in the same period.

DEMOCRATS ENJOYED A SEVEN-POINT LEAD ON THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT - 42% TO 35% - WHEN OBAMA TOOK OFFICE AS PRESIDENT IN LATE JANUARY 2009.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

As I said above, I think Obama is living in a time warp and thinks this is 2008.

Rick Perry: The Facts the Left will try to distort

Over the past couple of months Rick Perry has been considering a run for POTUS. As of Saturday, August 13, he’s in with both feet.

Since he’s been Governor of Texas for over ten years, folks from the other “56 states” are asking Texans what kind of governor he’s been and what we think. I decided that what I “think” isn’t good enough – I could be wrong. So, I decided to do some research on Perry’s record and form a more accurate, FACT-BASED OPINION ON HIS QUALIFICATIONS INSTEAD OF RELYING ON MY GENERAL PERCEPTIONS.

Here are the 17 areas
1. Gardasil
2. Trans-Texas Corridor
3. He used to be a democrat
4. Texas to secede from the Union
5. Job creation in Texas
6. Texas Schools
7. Turned down federal stimulus but asked for disaster aid for wildfires
8. Tax policy—raised taxes?
9. Executions
10. Refused commuting death sentence
11. Cameron Todd Willingham
12. Instate tuition of illegals
13. Rick Perry is gay
14. Texas governors are weak governors
15. Perry squishing on immigration
16. Bilderberg
17. Bad statistics for Texas

http://peskytruth.wordpress.com/2011/07/19/rick-perrys-negatives/

This is an excellent article that will allow you to respond to libs who try to denigrate Perry’s character and records.   Facts always seem the best way to answer them.

The Leftist Dream becomes the Left’s Biggest Nightmare

…With a 70 percent approval rating and supermajorities in both houses of Congress, OBAMA COULD HAVE DONE ALMOST ANYTHING THROUGHOUT 2009.

Instead, HE CHOSE THE PATH OF JIMMY CARTER AND THE PRE-1995 BILL CLINTON — even more redistributive state programs, more stifling regulations, more petulant talk about “them,” more class warfare, more debt, and more failed big government.

As a genuine reactionary wedded to the dream of the 1960s, OBAMA NOT ONLY REJECTED THE IDEA OF NATIONAL RENEWAL, BUT HASTENED BY A DECADE OR SO OUR DAY OF RECKONING WITH THE OUT-OF-CONTROL WELFARE STATE. Was he naïve in thinking that the private sector could be hectored and harassed, and still create enough new wealth to fund his growing redistributive agenda? Or was he Machiavellian in seeing that only by massive new debt, government regulations, and spread-the-wealth programs WOULD AMERICA BE REDUCED TO THE STATUS OF JUST ANOTHER INDEBTED EUROPEAN-STYLE SOCIALIST STATE — in itself a good and long-overdue thing?...

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/274706/obama-s-paradoxes-victor-davis-hanson

This is a question that the right is asking and the left is just starting to acknowledge. It isn’t working out like they thought it would and as the left has to do, they will turn on Obama and declare it was his faults that caused the failure not the Leftist Ideals.

Thanks for the Tip

When not comparing himself to Lincoln, the President is apparently explaining to automakers about how to make money. ACCORDING TO OBAMA, AUTOMAKERS “HAVE TO UNDERSTAND” THAT THEY “CAN’T JUST MAKE MONEY ON SUVS AND TRUCKS” BECAUSE CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO DEMAND MORE FUEL-EFFICIENT VEHICLES “AS GAS PRICES KEEP ON GOING UP.”

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/274742/obama-tells-automakers-how-make-money-jonathan-h-adler

This would be more credible if he were telling them how to spend money. But his warning about gas prices going up certainly has credibility since he’s promised to help that along.


Just a run of Bad Luck

"We had reversed the recession, avoided a depression, gotten the economy moving again," President Obama fantasized on the campaign stump in Iowa. "BUT OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS, WE'VE HAD A RUN OF BAD LUCK."

Bad luck?

Mr. Obama, meet the late Robert A. Heinlein, a Naval Academy midshipman-turned-influential-author, who decades before you entered the Oval Office presciently described your administration. IT WAS HEINLEIN WHO PENNED ONE OF THE MOST INSIGHTFUL OBSERVATIONS EVER OF HUMAN NATURE:

"Throughout history, POVERTY IS THE NORMAL CONDITION OF MAN. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded - here and there, now and then - are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. WHENEVER THIS TINY MINORITY IS KEPT FROM CREATING, OR (AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS) IS DRIVEN OUT OF A SOCIETY, THE PEOPLE THEN SLIP BACK INTO ABJECT POVERTY. THIS IS KNOWN AS 'BAD LUCK.' "

Mr. President, you didn't run into bad luck. YOU CREATED IT…

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/16/the-bad-luck-president/print/

But it took Bush eight years to screw up this bad, and you expect Obama to fix it in only 31 months? Yes we do. When you have a problem and you call someone to fix it, you expect them to fix it. If they don’t, you fire them and hire someone else.

Liberal Psychoses

… LIBERALISM IS, LIKE ALL POLITICS, SELF-INTERESTED, EMBRACED BY THOSE WHO RECEIVE TRANSFER PAYMENTS AND THOSE IN CHARGE OF ADMINISTERING THE REDISTRIBUTIVE STATE. BUT IT ALSO PROVIDES PSYCHIC EXEMPTION TO A NEW UPPER CLASS AND ASKS LITTLE CONCRETE IN RETURN — no tutoring of the illegal alien, no side-by-side residency in the Section 8 apartment to help create “community,” no hiring in the progressive law firm of a ghetto intern in lieu of the Yale undergraduate. IT IS THE WORST SORT OF PETTY HYPOCRISY: an exemption for the guilty soul through support of the redistributive state aimed at the noble but unapproachable poor —and through a clear disdain for the crass and aspiring middle class, which lacks the taste of the elite and the supposedly tragic nobility of the impoverished and victimized.

Some are surprised that Barack Obama – the community organizer, the hard-core leftist, the pal of Bill Ayers and Rev. Wright (compare the homes of each), the totem of the left — would buy a mansion and worry about the price of arugula. Or that when president, he would play golf more in three years than the aristocratic Bush did in eight. Or that in recessionary times, when iconic presidential sacrifice is critical, the First Family would favor Martha’s Vineyard, Vail, and Costa del Sol over the White House grounds or Camp David.

But this disconnect again is logical not aberrant. It is precisely because Obama rails about “fat cats,” “corporate jet owners,” “millionaires and billionaires,” and pontificates about “redistributive change,” “enough money,” “spread the wealth,” and “unneeded income” that HE FEELS SPIRITUALLY CLEANSED AND SO CAN SATISFY HIS NATURAL APPETITES FOR THE GOOD RARIFIED LIFE…

http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/liberal-psychoses/2/

An interesting piece trying to make sense of the liberals of today. It’s not very flattering which is not what the new left is all about. They crave acknowledgement, much as the Pharisees in the Bible did.