It's a long time til the election: is if over already for Obama?

What’s new Today 

Story #1 looks at Colombia and wonders if there is more there than meets the eye.  Has Obama accepted that he won’t win reelection?  #2 is a good ad from the RNC.  #3 is a caution that don’t simply read polls as they are issued by the press.  You need to look at the background to see if they are credible.  #4 tells us why we know Democrats lie; it finds the biggest lie is about contraception.  #5 is an oldie but a goodie.  How about raising taxes on Hollywood?  #6 is a cute version of the Little Red Hen to describe what’s going on with the Democrats in the governor recall.  #7 relates that almost ½ of the British public would like to immigrate from Britain.  And finally, #8 looks at the death of the green movement. 

Today’s thoughts

Seeing the pictures of Hillary partying in Colombia remind me of a college party.  I believe she’s way too old for that.

With President Obama talking so much about fairness, it seems more than a bit hypocritical to find out that in order to get access to him, you have to pay to play.  Is that fair? 

British Lord Nazir Ahmed has put a $10 million bounty on the capture of Barack Obama or George W. Bush.  Lord Ahmed is a Labour Party member raised to the House of Lords by Tony Blair in 1998.  Are you surprised he is a leftist? 

The Democrats want to paint Mitt Romney as being out of touch with ordinary Americans.  But whose wife went on 42 days of vacation this past year including taking a separate plane so she could arrive four hours earlier than her husband at Hyannis Port?   Who’s out of touch?

 Have you noticed how all those journalist are misspelling Colombia? 

1.  Is it all over for Obama? 

The undignified display of raucous partying by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Colombia shows that this administration cares nothing for the American people or the United States of America. Her spend-it-all attitude toward America’s goodwill, Treasury and reputation in the world shows more than any poll will just how slim the president’s real chances are for a second term. Secret Service agents partying with hookers reflects directly on this administration. Hard to imagine wither President Bush tolerating such nonsense. The fish rots from the head down, and this fish head is Barack Obama.

Here is his leadership, as reported by CNS:

Just two days after President Barack Obama gave a sharply edged response to news anchor Larry Conners of KMOV in St. Louis after Conners had asked the president about Americans who “get frustrated and even angered when they see the first family jetting around [to] different vacations and so forth,” Obama told a panel at the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia that part of his job there was to scout out locations for a future vacation with First Lady Michelle Obama…

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/54254

Is this a sign Obama has given up?  I’m not sure, but it certainly is a sign that they aren’t disciplined and aren’t the brightest bulb in the package.  I think Obama and Hillary both hurt their future ambitions with what went on in Columbia. 

2.  RNC Ad for 2012:  No excuses

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVDs9mSG3AA&feature=player_embedded#!

Here is the type of ad you will be seeing in the coming election.  Obama and the Democrats are in big trouble. 

3.  Misleading Polls

News organizations that commission polls on the presidential election and that then have their reporters write stories about the results of those polls ought to at least give some thought to the old injunction "Primum non nocere."

"First, do no harm" is a pretty good rule for everyone in all circumstances, but it is especially appropriate for those allegedly committed to the old standards of journalism. Certainly no Pulitzer judge would honor a manufactured story, especially one that misled news consumers about the real facts of any situation.

Almost all "national" polls about the presidential race are at best entertainment, however, and some are downright disingenuous and a few intentionally misleading.

"[H]ere's my bottom line," The Weekly Standard's Jay Cost wrote last week in the conclusion of his analysis of the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, which found President Obama to have a significant lead over Mitt Romney among all adults, and a huge lead on key measures such as likability.

"ABC News/WaPo has again offered up a pro-Democratic sample that helps Team Obama spin the day's news," Cost concluded.

Cost reached this "bottom line" because of the "hugely Democratic tilt" of the poll's sample, which put questions to a population of respondents 11 percentage points higher in Democrat makeup than in GOP participants, "an unjustifiable number," Cost concluded (his emphasis, not mine)…

http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2012/04/spinning-polls-obama/491851

In fact when you see a poll that doesn’t make any sense, the first thing you want to do is to look at the demographics of who was polled.  I’ve seen this before.  Since 85% of Democrats will vote for Obama and 11% tilt to democrats would result in almost a 9.4% increase in Obama’s favorability in the poll. 

4.   The Democrats’ biggest Lie

There are white lies. There are ordinary lies. There are big lies. And then there are lies that are so huge that it is difficult for a rational person to believe that such a lie has been attempted. The left's talking points about the GOP, contraception, and women in America in the year 2012 are based on the biggest lie of our century: the GOP is attempting to ban contraception in America.

This lie cannot stand examination. The left lies about Social Security reform, unemployment numbers, the state of the economy, global warming, etc. The list is long. The script is methodical and boring. The politicians who deliver the lines of that script are boorish. But the assertion that the GOP is attempting to deny women contraception at the state level is so absurd and so heinous that the Party must not be silent. It must not sit quietly or offer up tepid rebuttals. The GOP must respond loudly and rationally. It must do so now...

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/04/the_democrats_biggest_lie.html#ixzz1sCgQVjSa

The left is always throwing out comments about the GOP that simply aren’t true.  From Republicans want to poison the water to the charge that they don’t care about people, it appears only by lying can the Democrats hope to win office.

5.  What’s sauce for the Goose:  New Taxes?

Well, the debt deal is behind us, but it's clear that the White House wants more taxes. Instead of fighting this head-on, the GOP might want to think about future ways of giving President Obama what he says he wants. Done properly, it just might be what academics like Obama call a "teachable moment."

One of the things that's been floating around the Web over the past week is a video clip from 1953. It's a short film produced by the motion picture industry, seeking the end of a 20 percent excise tax on movie theaters' gross revenues that had been imposed at the end of World War II as a deficit-cutting measure. (Yes, gross, not net).

In the film, figures ranging from industry big shots to humble ticket collectors talk about how the tax is hurting their industry and killing jobs, and ask Congress to repeal the tax.

They even explain, in a sort of pre-Art Laffer supply-side way, that a cut in theater taxes might actually produce an increase in federal revenues as the result of greater economic growth.

The effort -- which includes a call aimed at "Congressman John Dingell," father of the current Rep. John Dingell, who took over from his father a mere two years later in 1955 -- ultimately succeeded.

But while I'm usually for tax cuts, in this case I think that's too bad. Because with this battle over,  Hollywood stopped talking loudly about the damage done by high taxes, pretty much for good.

When, since, have we seen such a firmly expressed appreciation of the harm that excessive taxation can do to the economy, voiced by representatives of the entertainment industries?

Today, those industries are a major source of Democratic contributions and spread-the-wealth rhetoric, even as they prosper based on this tax cut, and numerous other bits of favorable treatment scattered throughout the Internal Revenue Code. It's time for a change…

http://washingtonexaminer.com/2011/08/sunday-reflection-why-gop-should-give-obama-higher-taxes-he-wants/40620

I posted this about eight months ago, but I thought I’d bring it back as Obama tries to use the Buffet Rule as a political wedge issue.  I wonder how many democrats would vote to increase taxes on Hollywood?  And wouldn’t this help the deficit? 

6.  Wisconsin Recall:  The Little Red Hen

…"Who is going to eat this governor bread?" asked the little red hen Kathleen.

"I will," purred the cat Tom.

"Oh no, you won't," said the little red hen Kathleen. "I nurtured the seed of discontent, I reaped it and took it to the unionized mill to be made into political flour, and I made the governor bread all by myself (after deals were discussed, quids were proed for quos, and pledges and promises were made). I shall now enjoy the governor bread all by myself."

"Not so fast," said three big old Democratic party race horses, standing at stud — horse Kohl, horse Obey, and horse Erpenbach. "WE are the wise male noble steeds of the party. Behold our reservoirs of testosterone and wisdom. WE shall decide who gets to enjoy the governor bread."

And with that the little red hen Kathleen was told to go back to her unionized kitchen and the cat Tom shared the bread with his friend, the snake Rahm from Illinois.

http://althouse.blogspot.com/2012/04/once-upon-time-there-was-little-red-hen.html

I recommend you read the whole thing.  Ann Althouse does a great job. 

7.  Almost ½ of Brits want out of the UK

ALMOST half of all Britons are “seriously considering” moving overseas, an exclusive survey for The Sun has found.

Australia is top of the relocation wish list followed by the US, Canada and New Zealand.

The cost of living, weather, unemployment and crime are the most common reasons for wanting to quit Britain.

Pollsters YouGov quizzed 1,650 adults after The Sun told last week about Dave and Jackie Jones who emigrated to Australia with their 12 kids.

The family from Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria — who have never claimed benefits — quit in despair at what they see as soft-touch Britain’s emphasis on state handouts instead of opportunities…

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/4257682/48-of-Brits-want-to-get-out-of-Britain-says-new-Sun-survey.html

Four more years of Obama and the US would fall of the list.  BTW, how could Brits consider moving to the USA when they have single payer healthcare in Britain?   Makes you wonder.

8.  The Decline of the Green Movement

An April 9 Gallup Poll shows that since 2006, radical environmentalism has been losing influence in America. Gallup results are even more dramatic when viewed over the last couple of decades: worry about water pollution dropped from consuming 72% of Americans in 1989 to perturbing 46% in March 2011; worry about air pollution since 1989 dropped from 63% to 36% in 2011. When Gallup asks Americans to prioritize environmental concerns or economic concerns, the same pattern emerges. In the latest poll on the subject, 54% favor economic growth and 36% favor the environment.

Pew Research polls on global warming show a similar loss of trust in radical environmentalism. In 2006, the percentage of Americans who believe that there is "solid evidence" of global warming was 77%, but in 2011, only 63% believed that. Pew also shows that the percentage of Americans who do not believe in global warming or feel that there is not enough evidence rose in those five years from 33% to 43%. Pew shows that even among Americans who believe in global warming, fewer and fewer attribute that rise in temperature to man. In 2006, 47% of Americans believed that we were experiencing man-made global warming, but by 2011, only 38% of Americans believed in man-made global warming.

Rasmussen last August published a poll which indicates a serious credibility gap that the scientific establishment has with America: 69% of Americans believe that scientists have falsified global warming research. Gallup two years ago published a twelve-year trend which showed that the percentage of Americans who believe that the seriousness of global warming has been exaggerated has grown steadily to an all-time high of 48% in 2010

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/04/the_decline_of_greenism.html#ixzz1sCj1pNEx

The right likes to talk about Mann made global warming mocking Michael Mann’s name who came up with the infamous hockey stick curve.  

Taxes

Your Tax Dollars at Work

A TAXPAYER-FUNDED EXHIBIT EQUATES REPUBLICAN GOVE
RNORS WITH NAZISM, AND COINCIDENTALLY PROVES PROGRESSIVE DELUSIONS.

"Artist" Sean Michael Stimac has released his piece, "The Faces of Fascism," for display at the Marquette (Michigan) Arts and Cultural Center. In it, Republican governors Walker, Kasich, Scott, and Snyder appear on a Nazi-style propaganda poster with the visage of the Third Reich's eagle, and in its talons is not the swastika, but the Republican Party's token elephant.

First of all, I'D EXPECT A BIT MORE PROFUNDITY OR POSSIBLY A BIT OF ABSTRACTION FROM "ART" THAT HAS BEEN EXHIBITED AS HIGH-BROW STUFF AT A POPULAR CULTURAL CENTER. Instead, this piece has all the value of an unoriginal political cartoon, giving us the same baseless, in-your-face nonsense we've always gotten from the dimwitted left- you know, Bush is a Nazi, ScottWalker's a Nazi, Tea Partiers are Nazis, blah, blah, blah. But WHAT REALLY STANDS OUT HERE IS THE SHEER STUPIDITY AND INEFFECTIVENESS OF THIS PARTICULAR EFFORT. Take a look at the left.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/07/taxpayer-funded_exhibit_slurs_gop_govs_as_nazis.html

Sigh. This is simply pathetic.

CEO of Wynn goes on anti-Obama rant

…AND I'M SAYING IT BLUNTLY, THAT THIS ADMINISTRATION IS THE GREATEST WET BLANKET TO BUSINESS, AND PROGRESS AND JOB CREATION IN MY LIFETIME. And I can prove it and I could spend the next 3 hours giving you examples of all of us in this market place that are frightened to death about all the new regulations, our healthcare costs escalate, regulations coming from left and right. A President that seems, that keeps using that word redistribution. WELL, MY CUSTOMERS AND THE COMPANIES THAT PROVIDE THE VITALITY FOR THE HOSPITALITY AND RESTAURANT INDUSTRY, IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, THEY ARE FRIGHTENED OF THIS ADMINISTRATION. And it makes you slow down and not invest your money. Everybody complains about how much money is on the side in America.

You bet and until we change the tempo and the conversation from Washington, it's not going to change. And THOSE OF US WHO HAVE BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND THE CAPITAL TO DO IT ARE GOING TO SIT IN FEAR OF THE PRESIDENT. AND A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO SAY THAT. THEY'LL SAY, GOD, DON'T BE ATTACKING OBAMA. WELL, THIS IS OBAMA'S DEAL AND IT'S OBAMA THAT'S RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEAR IN AMERICA….

http://www.businessinsider.com/wynn-ceo-steve-wynn-conference-call-transcript-obama-2011-7#ixzz1SYKdhFIx

And this guy is a democrat who voted for Obama in 2008.
Why The Democratic Party Is Doomed

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, AS WE HAVE KNOWN IT FOR THE PAST 70 YEARS, IS NOW IN ITS LAST DAYS.

Yes, the House Republicans may raise the debt ceiling for a mix of spending cuts and revenue raisers. Yes, Barack Obama may win the 2012 presidential contest. Yes, bureaucrats and judges will continue to impose new and costly regulations on the economy.

But it doesn’t matter. THE LONG-TERM TRENDS ARE ALMOST ALL BAD NEWS FOR THE LEFT WING OF THE PARTY.

This week’s fight over raising the federal debt limit exposes a key weakness in the warfare-welfare state that has bestowed power onto the Democratic Party: WITHOUT AN EVER-GROWING SHARE OF THE ECONOMY, IT DIES. EVERY VITAL ELEMENT OF THE DEMOCRATS’ COALITION — UNIONS, GOVERNMENT WORKERS, GOVERNMENT CONTRACTORS, “ENTITLEMENT” CONSUMERS — REQUIRES CONSTANT INCREASES IN PAYMENTS, GRANTS AND CONSULTING CONTRACTS. Without those payments, they don’t sign checks to re-elect Democrats.

Like it or not, OBAMA IS NOT THE NEW FDR, BUT THE NEW GORBACHEV: a man forced to preside over the demise of a political system he desperately wants to save….

http://blogs.forbes.com/richardminiter/2011/07/18/why-the-democratic-party-is-doomed/

This is a fun and hopeful read. And while the Democrats will deny it, those in the know are aware of the precarious state they are in. That’s why they hate the TEA Party so much.

The Hysterically Outdated SEIU Intimidation Manual.

BACKGROUND ON THIS: the SEIU was forced to cough up a copy of its “Contract Campaign Manual” as part of a court case – and it’s an interesting little document. The whole thing reads, as F. Vincent Vernuccio notes in the Washington Times, as A STEP-BY-STEP CHECKLIST ON HOW TO MANIPULATE… JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING, REALLY… IN THE COURSE OF FORCING FAVORABLE NEGOTIATION TERMS. Mostly because that’s what it actually is.
Lots of people are going to concentrate on passages like this:

Union members sometimes must act in the tradition of Dr. Marin Luther King and Mohatma Gandhi and disobey laws which are used to enforce injustice against working people.

or

It may be a violation of blackmail and extortion laws to threaten management officials with release of ‘dirt’ about them if they don’t settle a contract. But there is no law against union members who are angry at their employer deciding to uncover and publicize factual information about individual managers.

…as they should, frankly. But looking at the document itself tells you something interesting ABOUT SEIU: IT APPARENTLY HASN’T HAD AN ORIGINAL THOUGHT IN ITS COLLECTIVE HEAD SINCE, I DON’T KNOW, ABOUT 1985 OR SO*…..

http://moelane.com/2011/07/18/the-hysterically-outdated-seiu-intimidation-manual/

SEIU is a pillar in the Democrat Party. And like the other union pillars it is crumbling from corruption and abuse.


Hauser’s Law is in effect in the USA

Now, if Hauser’s law is as spot-on as it has been in the past and it’s going to be difficult to raise the government’s revenue level much beyond the 20% of GDP mark..."

-- John Hawkins

Welcome to Hauser's Law, a piece of economic theory that could turn out to be quite relevant in the next few decades. LONG STORY SHORT, TAX RATES GO UP AND DOWN, BUT THE AMOUNT OF REVENUE THE GOVERNMENT BRINGS IN HAS TURNED OUT TO BE FAIRLY STATIC.

The reason this is so relevant is that the Democrats, although they loathe to publicly admit it, want America to look much more like Western Europe: They want much bigger government and they want the populace paying a significantly higher tax rate to pay for it. They've been quite successful at getting the bigger government part implemented, but REPUBLICANS HAVE MANAGED TO BLOCK THE HIGHER TAXES. HAUSER'S LAW SUGGESTS THAT EVEN IF DEMOCRATS GOT THEIR HEARTS’ DESIRE AND DRAMATICALLY RAISED TAXES, IT WOULDN'T GENERATE THE REVENUES LIBERALS EXPECT. In other words, big government may be even more financially unfeasible in this country over the long term than it is in places like Greece or Spain -- which would hardly be a shocker given that OUR FOUNDING FATHERS WERE HIGHLY INDIVIDUALISTIC, TAX-HATING, SMALL GOVERNMENT FANATICS WHO CLUNG TO THEIR GUNS AND RELIGION.

http://townhall.com/columnists/johnhawkins/2011/07/19/5_american_economic_statistics_that_will_blow_your_mind/page/full/

This is the fly in the ointment when the Democrats complain that the tax rates used to be much higher. They generally couple this with “and growth was greater.” Of course the revenue collected was not larger, but the people calling for higher tax growth was greater. The world was recovering from a world war, technology was creating new wealth, and new markets were opening in former colonial possessions. The pie was getting bigger!!! Now we have more countries competing for their piece of this pie and the growth we are experiencing is helped by the lower tax rates so that money can go where it will do the most good. But the fly in the ointment I mentioned at the beginning of these comments was that tax revenue wasn’t bigger.

TAXINGCLOSING TAX LOOPHOLES CUTTING TAX EXPENDITURES ON HOLLYWOOD:

Dave Hardy emails:

Check out the Domestic Production Activities Deduction (§199), created by the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004. It classifies moviemaking as a production activity, and gives a tax credit for it (I think 9% or half of salaries paid, whichever is less). (Might PajamasTV qualify, I dunno). Hollywood thus gets a special tax credit of its own, on the theory (which Hollywood types would reject if applied to anyone else) that reducing taxes increases employment.

Plus lots of States give tax credits for the same. I know Arizona does. And often they’re transferable, so that if Disney films in AZ but doesn’t pay taxes here, it can sell the tax credit to someone who does.

http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/123928/

Well this is a tax loophole I could support closing.

O’Keefe’s latest sting

James O'Keefe has released A NEW STING VIDEO TARGETING THE MEDICAID PROGRAM in the spirit of his earlier attacks on Planned Parenthood and ACORN.

In this video, TWO MEN APPARENTLY PRESENT THEMSELVES AT THE OFFICES OF THE OHIO DEPARTMENT OF JOB AND FAMILY SERVICES AS RUSSIAN DRUG DEALERS seeking advice on applying for benefits.

In one encounter in the heavily edited video, the men disclose their work as selling "Bob Marley pharmaceuticals" that they hide under their floorboards. THE CASE WORKER APPEARS TO COACH THEM TO CALL THEIR OCCUPATION "BABYSITTING" and informs them that they are not at risk of having their homes searched as part of their Medicaid application.

"WE'RE NOT POLICE," SHE SAYS.

She also says she "just wouldn't mention" the sports car the men say they imported for $800,000 when filling their application.

When the men disclose they need an abortion for their underage sister who performs "sexual favors" for clients when closing deals, the state employee refers them to Planned Parenthood for free abortions that do not require parental consent….

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59305.html#ixzz1SYhehaW2

We have a government that pats down 95 year old cancer victims and 6 year old children while covering up for supposed drug dealers. This is the kind of government the left envisions for America.

Spend It Like Bush

WHAT IF, OVER THE NEXT DECADE, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDS AS IRRESPONSIBLY AS PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH DID?

Compare two things: the 2012-2021 federal budget as proposed by President Obama in February (and as scored by the Congressional Budget Office in April), and the actual average spending level from 2001 through 2008 as a fraction of Gross Domestic Product. WE'LL KEEP THE CBO'S PREDICTIONS OF REVENUES AND GDP UNTOUCHED SO THAT ONLY SPENDING DIFFERENCES ARE COMPARED.

The CBO scored Obama's proposed budget as costing $46.2 trillion over 2012-2021, or 23.5% of GDP on average. Since the CBO expects $36.7 trillion in revenues over that time frame, the 10-year CUMULATIVE DEFICIT WOULD BE $9.5 TRILLION. THAT IS THE OBAMA PLAN, AND THE ONLY ONE HE HAS PUT IN WRITING THIS YEAR.

For President Bush's numbers, we can use the White House Office of Management and Budget numbers (Table 1.2). Federal spending under Bush, from 2001 through 2008, varied between 18.2% and 20.7% of GDP, and averaged 19.6% of GDP.

Now we can do a simple ratio calculation. If we were to spend at the Bush rate (19.6% of GDP) instead of the Obama rate (23.5% of GDP), total spending over 2012-21 would be $38.5 trillion instead of $46.2 trillion.

THAT IS A $7.7 TRILLION DIFFERENCE! Here is a table, to make the comparisons easy.
2012-2021 Federal Budget Projections

Obama's Plan
(as scored by CBO) At Bush's Spending Rate (as % of GDP)
Revenues                     $36.702 T                                           $36.702 T
Spending                     $46.172 T                                            $38.509 T
Cumulative Deficit       $9.470 T                                            $1.807 T
Cumulative Deficit        4.8% of GDP                                       0.92% of GDP
Debt held by the public in 2021
                                    $20.806 T                                            $13.143 T*
Debt held by the public in 2021
                                       87.4% of GDP                                   55.2% of GDP*

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/07/spend_it_like_bush.html

Once again we see there are 7 trillion dollars in excess spending created by this president.


E. coli's genetic code has been hacked

THE GENETIC CODE COMMON TO ALL LIFE IS NOT SET IN STONE. WE CAN CHANGE IT AT ITS MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL FOR OUR OWN PURPOSES. Genetic engineers have invented a new way to quickly, precisely and thoroughly rewrite the genome of living bacteria.

The technique could make drug-producing bacteria immune to viruses, prevent laboratory engineered organisms from genetically contaminating wildlife and enable scientists to construct proteins that do not exist in nature.

FARREN ISAACS OF YALE UNIVERSITY LED THE TEAM THAT THIS WEEK PROVES IT IS POSSIBLE TO MAKE NUMEROUS AND VERY PRECISE CHANGES IN THE GENOME OF LIVING CELLS. "In the process we are recoding organisms that could have completely new functionality."…

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20694-e-colis-genetic-code-has-been-hacked.html

We are living in a “Brave New World.”