Thursday, September 15, 2011

Headwinds for Obama--Make that a Hurricane

Disaster looms for O in 2012

Republican Bob Turner’s victory in the closely watched special election to replace disgraced Rep. Anthony Weiner delivered an unmistakable message to President Obama: Be afraid, be very afraid, of what’s coming down the pike in 2012.

That a Brooklyn-Queens district where Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1 could swing to a GOP candidate who was outspent and outmanned -- and where unions poured in enormous resources in the final hours -- doesn’t bode well for a president facing re-election in a queasy economy.

Public Policy Polling minced no words when it reported Sunday that Assemblyman David Weprin, handpicked by Democratic leaders as their so-called sure-shot candidate, was undone by a president whose approval rating in the district came in at a dismal 31 percent….

The headline says it all. The Democrats will try to spin this, but facts are facts. In a heavily democratic part of New York, a Republican has taken Weiner’s seat. You might call this a “Weiner warning” for democrats down the ticket next year.

Do the Democrats’ Special Election Losses Mean Anything?

….One crude way to forecast the results you might expect to see out of a House race is through ITS PARTISAN VOTING INDEX, OR P.V.I., A MEASURE OF HOW THE DISTRICT VOTED RELATIVE TO OTHERS IN THE PAST TWO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ....

REPUBLICANS HAVE OVERPERFORMED THE P.V.I. BASELINE BY AN AVERAGE OF 7 PERCENTAGE POINTS ACROSS THE FOUR RACES. That squares with what we saw in 2010, when Republicans won the popular vote for the House by an aggregate of 7 percentage points.
If you don't count Hochul's victory in May — a very different political environment— then REPUBLICANS HAVE OUTPERFORMED EXPECTATIONS BY AN AVERAGE OF 14.6 POINTS IN SPECIAL elections over the past two months.

As to why Democrats are underperforming recently, it's no mystery to most people: President Obama. As Politico reports:

Even before the polls closed, the recriminations — something short of panic, and considerably more than mere grumbling — had begun. ON A HIGH-LEVEL CAMPAIGN CONFERENCE CALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DEMOCRATIC DONORS AND STRATEGISTS COMMISERATED OVER THEIR DISAPPOINTMENT IN OBAMA. A SOURCE ON THE CALL DESCRIBED THE MOOD AS “AWFUL.”

“People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” said the source ...

Good news if you are a Republican. This puts a number on it.

Even Republicans Rejected Info on Obama’s Past

…Nevertheless, I think there is something broken in our media and campaign system. I do not think most independents or conservatives understand, or fully appreciate, the tremendous advantages the left derives from having the mainstream media serve as the fully paid, completely sympathetic, Dan Rather-level opposition research team of the Democratic Party. IT IS A SYSTEM THAT METHODICALLY IGNORES DAMAGING INFORMATION ABOUT FLAWED CANDIDATES LIKE SEN. JOHN EDWARDS AND REP. ANTHONY WEINER, WHILE ELEVATING MINOR ERRORS AMONG REPUBLICANS TO THE STATUS OF WATERGATE INVESTIGATIONS….

…I think recognition of this problem should be the first step in taking systematic action to prevent flawed Democrat candidates from winning office. In the meantime, I predict that we will see more examples of media failure as the left dominates the muckraking journalism profession while the right seems too dependent on a small handful of seemingly obscure, overworked journalists and -- as my case illustrates -- unconnected and often baffled citizen activists.

An interesting article by a classmate of Barack Obama who tried in 2008 to let people know the truth of Obama’s past. I’ve posted the conclusions of his article and thought it fit in well with at least part of what happened in New York in Weiner’s seat.

Conservative Nabs Naming Rights to ‘American Jobs Act’ After Obama Delay

The American Jobs Act introduced in the House of Representatives looks quite different from the version President Obama outlined in his speech to Congress. Instead of hiking taxes on working Americans to pay for another stimulus, Rep. Louie Gohmert’s (R-TX) legislation offers a tax cut.

If it weren’t for bad luck, BHO wouldn’t have any luck at all.

Blast From Paul Krugman's Past: "Social Security Is A Ponzi Scheme And Will Soon Be Over"

It is one thing (what thing that is we are not sure, but we have heard others say it, so like all good lemmings we will say it too) for Rick Perry to call Social Security a ponzi scheme. After all he is some crazy, foaming in the mouth conservative, as uber-Keynesian liberal Paul Krugman may call him. And that's fine. What confuses us, however, is WHY SOCIAL SECURITY WOULD BE CALLED A PONZI BY THE SAME LIBERAL NOTED PREVIOUSLY: NONE OTHER THAN PAUL KRUGMAN HIMSELF.

Exhibit A, from a distant 1997, which perhaps one would have expected to remain buried:
Social Security is structured from the point of view of the recipients as if it were an ordinary retirement plan: what you get out depends on what you put in. So it does not look like a redistributionist scheme. IN PRACTICE IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE STRONGLY REDISTRIBUTIONIST, BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF ITS PONZI GAME ASPECT, IN WHICH EACH GENERATION TAKES MORE OUT THAN IT PUT IN. WELL, THE PONZI GAME WILL SOON BE OVER, THANKS TO CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS, so that the typical recipient henceforth will get only about as much as he or she put in (and today's young may well get less than they put in).

It was so much easier to lie about what you said in the past when there wasn’t an internet.

No comments:

Post a Comment