Thursday: Left Wing Conspiracies

Left wing conspiracy theories

1.      AIDS WAS INVENTED IN A US LABORATORY and was designed to infect the AA community

2.      WE INVADED IRAQ FOR OIL.

3.      We invaded AFGHANISTAN TO BUILD A PIPELINE across the country

4.      TRIG PALIN IS NOT SARAH PALIN'S SON, but her grandson (Bristol supposedly is his mother)

5.      GEORGE BUSH STOLE THE 2000 ELECTION and Al Gore actually won Florida

6.      GEORGE BUSH KNEW ABOUT 9/11 and did nothing or actually caused 9/11 to happen.

7.      BUSH LIED WHEN HE WENT TO CONGRESS for authorization for the Iraq War.

8.      THE TEA PARTY IS A RACIST ORGANIZATION

9.      JARED LOUGHNER WAS A MEMBER OF THE TEA PARTY
Sarah Palin was to blame for the shooting of Gabrielle Giffords

10.  ENRIGHT (THE NY CABBIE STABBER) WAS A RIGHT WING ZEALOT (turned out he worked for an "Interfaith" group which supports the Cordoba Mosque and was actually quite drunk).

11.  J. PATRICK BEDELL, THE PENTAGON SHOOTER, WAS REVILED IN THE LEFTIST BLOGOSPHERE AS A RIGHT WING TEAPARTIER. Turns out he was suffering from Bush Derangement Syndrome, and was a 9/11 Truther

12.  THE IRS PLANE CRASHER WAS A TEA PARTY MEMBER

13.  The right uses "CODE" WORDS TO MASK THEIR RACISM. Some of the code words include:

14.  Arrogant, urban schools, states' rights, professor, affirmative access, birth certificate, entitlements, community organizer, competition, government schools, charter schools, vouchers, opposition to reparations, deficits, free enterprise, private ownership of property, limited government, etc.

15.  THERE WAS A "VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY" against Bill Clinton that created the Lewinsky affair. It has since been updated to include everything the right does and it is financed by the Koch brothers.

16.  THERE WAS NO FISCAL CRISIS IN WISCONSIN UNTIL SCOTT WALKER and the Republicans cut taxes on the rich.

17.  BUSH'S TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY IS THE MAIN INGREDIENT IN THE DEFICIT Obama currently has (it's actually about 5%).

18.  WALL STREET CAUSED THE FISCAL MELTDOWN WHILE FANNIE AND FREDDIE HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IT.

19.  BRIETBART HACKED FORMER REPRESENTATIVE ANTHONY WEINER'S TWITTER ACCOUNT and sent out the lewd picture of Weiner.

20.  THE TEA PARTY CAUSED THE S&P DOWNGRADE.

21.  THE RIGHT WING CONSERVATIVES (IN DEBT TO THE TEA PARTY) HAVE CAUSED THE RECOVERY TO STUMBLE by failing to pass Obama’s so far non-existent jobs plan. 

22.  ANY DISSENT FROM THE CONSENSUS OF AGW IS BY SCIENTISTS IN THE PAY OF THE EVIL OIL COMPANIES.  

Note that a number of these conspiracy theories were quickly proven false (mainly about people acting violently being tea party members), The left’s fixation on the TEA Party shows how very frightened they are of it.  Also a number of these appear to be excuses, but they are easily bought by the rank and file Democratic base. 

I invite you to add to the list any leftist conspiracy theories you are aware of.

Wednesday: Overhyped Disasters

Overhyped Disasters

2012  The dire year in which the Mayan Calendar comes to an end.  This is the overhyped disaster for the faint of heart and the weak of mind.  Hollywood tried to cash in on this with a special effect heavy sci-fi movie on the end of the world. 

Y2K  It’s been eleven years since we had this disaster staring us in our face.  Because of the turn to the 21^st Century, all our computers were going to crash and civilization as we were enjoying it was going to come to an end.  Most notable crashes was going to be the economic system.  Turn out nothing happened other than a few updates for different programing but it get more of those today than I did back then.

Bird Flu (Avian flu H1N1) The world went a little crazy when “bird flu” came on the scene (around 2005) and some of it jumped to humans with people who worked with birds in third world countries.  This was one of those if it mutates and infects people we could have a pandemic like we did in 1918 where tens of millions died world wide kind of scare.  As so often happens it was more noise than fury.  It was similar to Swine Flu (H1N1) which killed some people in Mexico and really hurt the Mexican tourist trade.  However if you were willing to risk it, there were some very good deals to be had at that time. 

Hurricane Irene.  Our latest disaster, as it approached the Global Warming alarmists were keeping their fingers crossed that it would be the most hellaish storm in the last 100 years.  Times haven’t been really good for them for the past 10 years (no rise in temperature) and it’s been 6 years since Katrina hit New Orleans and the warmist were predicting more and larger storms as the norm.  As it is we’ve had six years of low storm activity and strength.  But Irene was projected to hit North Carolina as a category 3 storm and on to New York.  But it moderated in intensity landing as a tropical storm but was quite large.  Newscasts were wall to wall expecting the worst and while there was a lot of flooding and some deaths, as natural disaster rate it was a disappointment at least to those hoping for the worst.

AGW  Anthropogenic Global Warming has been one of the most overhyped “disasters” in the history of the world.  AGW believers have connected global warming to temperature rise, temperature fall, droughts, floods, a lack of snow, blizzards, etc.  In fact, one person put together a list of some of the things AGW has caused and here is a sample:

“Acne, agricultural land increase, Afghan poppies destroyed, aged deaths, poppies more potent, Africa devastated, Africa in conflict, African aid threatened, African summer frost, aggressive weeds, Air France crash, air pressure changes, airport farewells virtual, airport malaria, Agulhas current, Alaskan towns slowly destroyed, al-Qaida and Taliban being helped, allergy increase, allergy season longer, alligators in the Thames, Alps melting, Amazon a desert, American Dream end, amphibians breeding earlier (or not), anaphylactic reactions to bee stings, ancient forests dramatically changed, animals head for the hills, animals shrink, Antarctic grass flourishes, Antarctic ice grows, Antarctic ice shrinks, Antarctic sea life at risk, anxiety treatment, algal blooms, archaeological sites threatened, Arctic bogs melt, Arctic in bloom, Arctic ice free, Arctic ice melt faster, Arctic lakes disappear, Arctic tundra lost, Arctic warming (not), a rose by any other name smells of nothing, asteroid strike risk, asthma, Atlantic less salty, Atlantic more salty, atmospheric circulation modified, attack of the killer jellyfish, avalanches reduced, avalanches increased”

This gets you through the As.  You can see them all here

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

But it is out of date as a study suggested an alien civilization may see how we are warming the climate and come and destroy mankind. 

AGW supporters don’t seem to realize how foolish they seem.  In the meantime if you want to nominate any overhyped disaster please do in the comments.

Tuesday: The Lemonade Stand Theory



Add caption

 The Lemonade Stand Theory 

“The BROKEN WINDOWS THEORY is a criminological theory of the norm setting and signaling effects of urban disorder and vandalism on additional crime and anti-social behavior. The theory states that monitoring and maintaining urban environments in a well-ordered condition may prevent further vandalism as well as an escalation into more serious crime.”

I want to take a portion out of this theory, that is, how small often times insignificant actions can have a huge effect on behavior. 

LIBERALS FIND THEMSELVES CONFUSED AND DAZED REGARDING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE VOTING POPULACE.  They see polls where their programs are supported by solid majorities of the people yet they don’t get the support for these policies in the election.  In the book, ‘WHAT’S THE MATTER WITH KANSAS” the author makes the case that although the majority of people would be better off economically under the Democrats, the Republicans in an almost Svengali manner focus PEOPLE ON CULTURE ITEMS AND DIVERT THEM FROM LOOKING AT THE ECONOMIC ISSUES which the author assumes are much better under the Democrats. 

You often hear liberals cry that the right is lying or making things up.  The MSM tends to support the Democrats so IT ISN’T THAT THE LIBERAL MESSAGE ISN’T GETTING OUT and that the Republican “lies” are all the people hear.  In fact, it is here that the “broken window phenomena” comes in.  I CALL IT THE “LEMONADE STAND THEORY.”

To the left, the government is a powerful force for good. Today, liberals remember the progressives as do-gooders who cleaned up the food supply and agitated for a more generous social welfare state and better working conditions.   They see government as a force that can protect the populace, insure safe food, fight monopolies, protect the environment, give healthcare to everyone, etc.  They see government the opposite of what Ronald Reagan saw when he said, “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”  THE PROBLEM FOR THE LEFT IS THAT THE PEOPLE DON’T BELIEVE THEM.  AND THEY DON’T BELIEVE THEM BECAUSE OF THEIR EXPERIENCE WITH GOVERNMENT. 

Look at the polls.  The most liberal age group consists of those under the age of 30.  They are the ones who have the least experience and are more susceptible to the ideas of the left.   The young basically have a single point of experience to deal with, that is, how things are today.  Through a single data point you can draw an infinite number of lines so what is possible seems infinite.  They would particularly be susceptible to a campaign focusing on ‘Hope and Change.’  As you gain more life experience you not only know what is, but also what was.  Your judgment is better because you are basing your views on an understanding of how things actually work. 

Now for the reason I call this the “Lemonade Stand Theory.”  We are periodically seeing stories of how the police come out and shut down some children who have set up a lemonade stand.  The city shuts them down because they don’t have a license to sell the lemonade.  Licensing food establishments has a noble cause as well as an economic benefit for the local government.  These laws are designed to insure people aren’t made sick when eating at public establishments.  But like the broken windows in the original theory, these little governmental actions such as shutting down a children’s lemonade stand is just another nail in the coffin of government trust.  IF YOU CAN’T TRUST EVEN YOUR LOCAL GOVERNMENT TO USE A LITTLE COMMON SENSE REGARDING KIDS HAVING A LEMONADE STAND, HOW CAN YOU TRUST THE BIG IMPERSONAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO RUN THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM?    The Lemonade Stand Theory strikes again. 

I invite your comments.  Do you think the Lemonade Stand Theory is legitimate? 

Obama: A Lame Duck

Looking for a sign?


THE NUMBERS OF AMERICANS WHO ARE NOT AFFILIATED WITH EITHER MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY HAS REACHED THE HIGHEST LEVEL EVER, AS THE NUMBER OF DEMOCRATS HAS REACHED AN ALL-TIME LOW.

During the month of August, voters not affiliated with either party grew from 32.1% in July to 33.5%, the highest level recorded in seven years of tracking.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

Democrats are bleeding voters and with good reason.  They’ve been in charge and nothing is working as it should. 





Is Obama already a Lame Duck?

This summer has cemented it: BARACK OBAMA IS A LAME DUCK. HIS ADMINISTRATION IS A FAILURE. DEMOCRATS KNOW IT. AND THEY ONLY HAVE MONTHS TO ACT.

Their president has lost the support of Wall Street donors. He has driven high-powered Democrats to go public with humiliating criticism. ONE IN FOUR DEMOCRATS HAVE TOLD CNN THEY WANT A DIFFERENT NOMINEE.

What’s the problem? In a hugely influential New York Times editorial, psychologist Drew Westen lamented that Obama’s problem is himself. “Like most Americans,” he wrote, “at this point, I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT BARACK OBAMA — AND BY EXTENSION THE PARTY HE LEADS — BELIEVES ON VIRTUALLY ANY ISSUE.”

There is still time for Democrats to fix this — but only if they force their leader not to seek a second term. As a president, Barack Obama is doomed. He is doomed now, doomed on Election Day and doomed even if he wins, until the day he leaves the White House.

Where to begin? For starters, OBAMA HAS NO TRUE CONSTITUENCY. Stephen Moore, writing in The Wall Street Journal, claimed last week that “the increasingly frustrated left” concedes the president has “a virtual lock on the crucial black vote.” But top black leaders feel ignored at best and betrayed at worst — and they’ve said so at their own town hall series….


http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/02/memo-to-dems-dump-obama-before-its-too-late/#ixzz1WoxcLzqa

Democrats seem to have very short memories.  Obama stands for “hope and change” only this time it is for the Republicans. 




MORNING JOE: WHAT OR WHO IS THE PROBLEM

SCARBOROUGH: But Gene, isn't there also though a larger context that the United States citizens MAY HAVE JUST ELECTED A PRESIDENT THAT WAS NOT READY TO RUN THE MOST COMPLEX ECONOMY IN THE WORLD? You're focusing on the Republicans, and yes, we all focus on the speech, but isn't the larger context not the speech or the opponent of the president but the president himself and WHETHER HE KNOWS WHAT TO DO IN THIS TIME OF CRISIS

ROBINSON: Well, this time of crisis. The president takes office, the financial system has collapsed and, in fact, we are on the precipice of something akin to a great depression. In fact, he averts the great depression, and the word stimulus has become a dirty word now, but in fact it does keep us from falling off the cliff. We now enter a sour and unsatisfactory recovery, and I put that in quotes because it doesn't feel like a recovery, but, in fact, the bleeding in terms of hundreds of thousands of jobs being lost every month and foreclosures on every block, the bleeding has been stanched. Now I, maybe somebody could have come in and done all that and also got the economy revved up and roaring, but I think it is more probable that this is a different kind of recession. And I wonder who could have done better.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2011/09/02/scarborough-challenges-obama-supporting-wapo-columnist-did-voters-ele#ixzz1Woz3F5ZO

Robinson is reading from the Democratic handbook.  “It could have been worse” is the best they can come up with.  But looking at what Obama’s doing and how the EPA is putting off regulations until after 2012, the rest of the sentence should be added and it is “and will be if you reelect Obama. 

Electric cars:  Wave of the future?

…There’s just one problem. THE FANTASY THAT ELECTRIC CARS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER DOESN’T SURVIVE EVEN THE MOST CURSORY REALITY CHECK. As Dennis DesRosiers, a leading auto consultant, points out, consumers simply won’t pay a $20,000 premium for a vehicle that doesn’t go very far, isn’t very convenient, and RUNS OUT OF JUICE AS SOON AS YOU TURN ON THE AIR CONDITIONER.

Consider hybrids. After a decade on the market, they’ve captured only 3 per cent of sales. To get to Mr. McGuinty’s 2020 target, green-minded Ontarians would have to buy at least 100,000 electric cars a year every year, starting right now. Total U.S. sales of electric vehicles are about 10,000 a year.

Of course, electric cars aren’t in mass production yet. AND THE TECHNOLOGY IS BOUND TO GET BETTER AND CHEAPER. RIGHT?

Not so fast, says the University of Manitoba’s Vaclav Smil, who’s among the world’s foremost scholars of energy economics. ELECTRIC CARS, HE SAYS, AREN’T MICROCHIPS, AND MOORE’S LAW DOESN’T APPLY. “The myth that the future belongs to electric vehicles is one of the original misconceptions,” he writes in his book Energy Myths and Realities. In an interview, he notes that recent history is filled with energy breakthroughs that turned out be duds. Electric car crazes have come and gone before. Perhaps some people may remember a Canadian company called Ballard, which claimed to have developed a breakthrough fuel-cell technology. Many brainy people swore that Ballard was the future. It wasn’t.

Here’s another catch: ELECTRIC CARS AREN’T NECESSARILY GREEN AT ALL. Electric vehicles require large amounts of electricity – so much that Toronto Hydro chief Anthony Haines says he doesn’t know how he’d get it. “IF YOU CONNECT ABOUT 10 PER CENT OF THE HOMES ON ANY GIVEN STREET WITH AN ELECTRIC CAR, THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM FAILS,” he said recently….

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/the-shocking-truth-about-electric-cars/article2149465/

Another one of the left’s pipe dreams.  They are pro-science or in this case pro-science fiction. 

Obama, Hitler, And Exploding The Biggest Lie In History

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The line between fascism and Fabian socialism is very thin. Fabian socialism is the dream. Fascism is Fabian socialism plus the inevitable dictator.” John T. Flynn

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billflax/2011/09/01/obama-hitler-and-exploding-the-biggest-lie-in-history/

An interesting article which pokes holes in the lie about Nazi’s being right wing. 

Social Security, Perry, and the polls

How Do You Spell Delusional?  DOE.

SOLYNDRA, a Fremont-based solar panel manufacturer that flared then sputtered, abruptly ceased operations on Wednesday and immediately LAID OFF ALL 1,100 OF ITS WORKERS.

The shutdown marks a high-profile collapse of a company that received more than $1.6 billion in federal and private funding in recent years.

"This was an unexpected outcome and is most unfortunate," Brian Harrison, Solyndra's president and chief executive, said.

THE COMPANY RECEIVED $535 MILLION IN TAXPAYER MONEY FROM THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY and $1.1 billion in private venture capital funding.

"WE HAVE ALWAYS RECOGNIZED THAT NOT EVERY ONE OF THE INNOVATIVE COMPANIES SUPPORTED BY OUR LOANS AND LOAN GUARANTEES WOULD SUCCEED," said Dan Leistikow, a spokesman for the Department of Energy. "But we can't stop investing in game-changing technologies that are key to America's leadership in the global economy."..

http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-news/ci_18795739?nclick_check=1

So here was in investment of over $486,000 per job lost. 







Men of the People

The portrait of Barack Obama's presidency is that of an egocentric -- not only incapable of leadership, but SOMEONE WHO VIEWS THE OFFICE AS A VEHICLE FOR THE SATISFACTION OF HIS DELUSION THAT THE WORLD NOT ONLY OWES HIM A LIVING, BUT A SUMPTUOUS ONE.

A TRAIT COMMON TO MANY WHO ESPOUSE SOCIALISM, INCLUSIVE OF DICTATORS AND DEMOCRATS, IS AN INSATIABLE APPETITE FOR SELF-INDULGENCE. While those on the conservative side of the political spectrum are often accused of hypocrisy when it comes to matters of sex and morality, those on the left are equally guilty, if not more so, in matters of money, paying taxes, and lifestyle.

Regardless of the public image they may convey, BARACK OBAMA AND HIS WIFE NEVER FAIL TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF A LIFESTYLE THAT WOULD BE THE ENVY OF ANY MODERN-DAY MONARCH while the bulk of the American populace struggles to afford life's necessities.

He is but another in a long line of those who promote socialism and proclaim to be "of the people" with only the interests of the citizens at heart -- as they duplicitously pursue a personal agenda. BEYOND THE UNQUESTIONED BELIEF BY THOSE ON THE LEFT THAT THEY ARE THE MOST CAPABLE, THUS SUPERIOR AND PRE-ORDAINED TO GOVERN THE MASSES, THE TRAITS MOST COMMON TO THE VAST MAJORITY OF SELF-DESCRIBED "PROGRESSIVES" IN POSITIONS OF POWER ARE JEALOUSY, GREED, AND MASSIVELY INFLATED DELUSIONS OF ENTITLEMENT….

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/09/barack_obama_man_of_the_people.html

Here’s an interesting look at the biggest problem the progressives have when it comes to actually living what they preach.  They don’t. 





Perry says Sky is Blue:  Progressives disagree

We can say one thing of the new GOP front-runner: Governor Rick Perry knows how to fire up a crowd. THE LEFTIST MEDIA BLEW UP THIS WEEK WHEN PERRY REITERATED A POINT FROM HIS BOOK FED UP! THAT SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE ARE PONZI SCHEMES.

"THERE IS NOTHING AT ALL ABOUT SOCIAL SECURITY THAT IS ANYTHING LIKE A PONZI SCHEME," DECLARES THE WASHINGTON POST'S PLUM LINE BLOG. (Bernie Madoff's lawyers must be wondering where this guy was during jury selection.) The blogger claims Social Security doesn't resemble the "deliberate and outright fraud" of a Ponzi scheme but IS SIMPLY A PROMISE TO TAKE TAXES FROM CHILDREN FOR THE BENEFIT A CERTAIN GROUP. (Whew, thank heaven that's cleared up!)

What this already troubling description of Social Security leaves out is that almost every subdivision of the program includes the word "insurance." WHEN FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT CAMPAIGNED FOR THE LAW, HE ROUTINELY CLAIMED THAT SOCIAL SECURITY WAS SYSTEM OF INSURANCE that would provide a pension income to the elderly. It wasn't until the 1937 SUPREME COURT CASE HELVERLING V. DAVIS WHERE THE SAME ADMINISTRATION ARGUED THAT SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES WERE NOT INSURANCE PREMIUMS AT ALL, BUT A GENERIC TAX TO BE SPENT AS GOVERNMENT SAW FIT. But the deception didn't stop there. To the present day, statements on the policy come regularly to the program's participants, perpetuating the illusion of a traditional retirement plan. But of course, only an uncouth Texan could describe that as "deliberate or outright fraud."…

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/09/perry_declares_sky_is_blue_media_shocked.html

Truth has a tough time in politics. 





Private vs. Public Investment

A single number tells us most of what we need to know about the recession and prospects for recovery. THAT NUMBER IS GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. It averaged 16% of the GDP in 2006-7, 11% in 2009, 12.4% in 2010. For the first half of 2011, it was 12.6%. This decline is large enough to account for most of the increase in unemployment. It must be reversed; there is no other way of returning to high employment.

HOUSEHOLDS ARE DOING THEIR DUTY, SPENDING 95% OF THEIR INCOME. Consumption is a dependent variable; it will never pull us out of recession. Consumption stimulus policies have failed and wasted tax revenue. Only more jobs and paychecks can do the job.

The Federal Reserve has maintained a discount rate of one quarter of one percent for 3 years to encourage lending and investment. It has done as much as it dared to raise exports and reduce imports by increasing the money supply and devaluing the dollar.

GOVERNMENT HAS INCREASED ITS SHARE OF GDP FROM 19.2% IN 2006-7 TO 20.9% IN 2009 AND 20.6% IN 2010. The increase in the deficit did not reduce unemployment. Can government increase its expenditures enough to counteract the decline in private investment? Can such an increase stimulate private investment? Is it possible to finance compensatory government spending by taxation?

Government expenditures

Arguments about the size of government are not just ideological; they are economic. At what point does increased taxation reduce growth? At what higher point does it reduce revenues? IF THE GOVERNMENT SPENDS 20% OF THE GDP, FINANCED BY TAXES, TAX RATES ON THE REST OF THE ECONOMY (BUSINESS, NONPROFITS, HOUSEHOLDS) MUST AVERAGE 25%. If government were to spend 25% OF THE GDP, TAX RATES WOULD HAVE TO AVERAGE 33%. Much depends on how government structures taxes and spends revenues. There is no sure knowledge, but I suspect that the tax rate that begins to reduce economic growth is much closer to 25% than to 33%....

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/09/recovery_by_the_numbers.html

A must read article that will give you a new look at what’s going on in the economy and what must be done to overcome the unemployment crisis.

Is Obama Running Against Congress?  He already Is.

Within minutes of agreeing with congressional leaders Wednesday night on an address to a joint session next week, PRESIDENT OBAMA FLASHED OUT AN EMAIL TO MILLIONS OF SUPPORTERS CRITICIZING THE CHAMBERS, THEIR MEMBERS AND VOWING TO PRESSURE THEM TO ENACT HIS AS YET UNSPECIFIED JOB CREATION IDEAS.

"IT'S BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE CONGRESS WAS FOCUSED ON WHAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NEED THEM TO BE FOCUSED ON," the Democrat charged in an email with the subject line: "Frustrated."

It's not exactly clear how long "a long time" Obama was thinking of. But until midterm voters produced a historic House turnover to Republicans last November, Obama's Democratic Party controlled both houses with substantial majorities and gave him vast spending, reform and healthcare programs….

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/08/obama-jobs-speech-warning-to-congress.html

His comment about “a long time” is very telling.  His push to enact healthcare certainly qualifies as NOT being focused on what the American people need them to be focused on.  But this is as close as you’ll get to him admitted that. 

How Do Obama's Re-Election Chances Stack Up to Hoover's?

This article is making the rounds this morning, suggesting that Obama's got a lock on 2012. ACCORDING TO A MODEL DESIGNED BY AMERICAN UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR ALLAN LICHTMAN, WHICH HAS SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED EVERY ELECTION SINCE REAGAN, OBAMA HAS ENOUGH OF ITS THIRTEEN "KEYS" TO ENSURE THAT HE WILL RETAIN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2012. I thought it would be interesting to see how Hoover stacked up on the same model.

1.      Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, "Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss." OBAMA LOSES THIS KEY. SO DOES HOOVER.

2.      Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama's unchallenged status, "I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary." OBAMA WINS THIS KEY. SO DOES HOOVER.

3.      Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. EASY WIN HERE FOR OBAMA. SO DOES HOOVER….

…. Yet HOOVER DIDN'T JUST BARELY LOSE--HE WAS BEATEN LIKE A RENTED MULE. The problem is obvious, I think: unlike the economic models that rely on external metrics, perception is doing a lot of the work here. Do we count Obama's stimulus but not Hoover's? And if so, why? I understand you might say that Obama's was larger, more effective, etc but this is a political model--it's about perception, not the economic effect, which is captured in other variables. Hoover's deficit spending was perceived as a big deal, and became an issue in the 1932 election.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/08/how-do-obamas-re-election-chances-stack-up-to-hoovers/244368/

Lichtman’s article got a lot of response from both sides.  This is a fun and interesting comparison. Perhaps Obama isn’t the shoe in that Lichtman declared he was. 

Perry 44% Obama 41%; President Leads Other GOP Hopefuls

FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR, TEXAS GOVERNOR RICK PERRY LEADS PRESIDENT OBAMA IN A NATIONAL ELECTION 2012 SURVEY. OTHER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES TRAIL THE PRESIDENT BY SINGLE DIGITS.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Perry picking up 44% of the vote while the president earns support from 41%. Given the margin of sampling error (+/- 3 percentage points) and the fact that the election is more than a year away, THE RACE BETWEEN THE TWO MEN IS EFFECTIVELY A TOSS-UP. Just over a week ago, the president held a three-point advantage over Perry. (To see question wording, click here.)

Perry leads by nine among men but trails by five among women. AMONG VOTERS UNDER 30, THE PRESIDENT LEADS WHILE PERRY HAS THE EDGE AMONG THOSE OVER 30. The president leads Perry by 16 percentage points among union members while Perry leads among those who do not belong to a union.

FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY CURRENTLY TRAILS THE PRESIDENT BY FOUR PERCENTAGE POINTS, 43% TO 39%. That’s a slight improvement for the Republican compared to a week ago. Earlier in the year, Romney held a one-point edge when matched against the president. Prior to today’s release, that was the only time a named Republican has held any kind of lead over President Obama. A Generic Republican currently leads the president 48% to 40%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/perry_44_obama_41_president_leads_other_gop_hopefuls

Pollster Dick Morris argues that any candidate who keeps Obama under 50% would beat him.  He’s contention is that with an incumbent president, the undecided will basically break completely against him (they already know who Obama is).  It is significant that with both Perry and Romney, Obama’s support is 43%.  This is not a good sign for Democrats. 

Shrinking Obama

Rasmussen: Generic Republican Beats President Obama by Eight Points

…PRESIDENT OBAMA EARNS HIS LOWEST LEVEL OF SUPPORT YET AGAINST A GENERIC REPUBLICAN in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, August 28.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds THE GENERIC REPUBLICAN EARNING 48% OF THE VOTE, WHILE THE PRESIDENT PICKS UP SUPPORT FROM 40%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, the GOP candidate held a 48% to 43% edge over the incumbent. This is the seventh week in a row a generic Republican has led Obama….

http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/08/30/rasmussen-generic-republican-beats-president-obama-by-eight-points/

I’ve said a couple of times, Donald Duck could beat Obama. Last week on MSNBC, Charlie Cook said a placebo could beat Obama. It doesn’t look good for the Democrats.

SEIU Poll: Obama at 42% approval

Even liberals can no longer pretend there is no blood in the political waters. President Obama’s job approval rating in the Daily Kos/SEIU Poll conducted by Public Policy Polling confirms all the other national polls, as averaged by Real Clear Politics.

The job approval numbers:  42% approval  54% disapproval

The analysis from the Daily Kos: “Not only is this President Obama’s third-straight record low showing in terms of job approvals, but HE HASN’T HAD POSITIVE NUMBERS ON THAT SCORE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF MAY, WHEN HE WAS COMING OFF THE TAIL-END OF THE TEMPORARY BOUNCE HE GOT AFTER OSAMA BIN LADEN’S DEATH. And setting aside that three-week stretch, the last time more voters approved of Obama’s job performance than disapproved was in early April, when he managed a 48-47 showing.”

The demographic numbers are similar to Gallup, etc. But there are a couple of categories that are different.

His JOB APPROVAL AMONG NON-TEA PARTY TYPES IS 54/41 BUT HE IS 6/94 AMONG TEA PARTY MEMBERS. What does that say about the power of the Tea Party to tank the president?

AMONG INDEPENDENTS, HE IS AT 33/61.

Among whites, 34/62.

Among union households, 44/47.

HE LOSES EVERY AGE GROUP — SURPRISINGLY DOING WORST IN 30-45 AT 36/61.

Among the bellwether 46-65 age group, 43/53.

The only income group that likes him are those who make more than $100,000 a year, 50/47.

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/41303

Two important points. Please notice the difference between TEA Party and non-TEA Party approval. Also it appears it is only the rich who like him (just barely at 50/47). You kind of wonder what in the world are those people thinking?


Exxon Mobile teams up with Russia Oil Company to develop oil wells in Russian Arctic

Exxon Mobil and the Russian oil firm Rosneft agreed to a deal Tuesday to begin joint operations on Russia’s Arctic Sea shelf and in the deep waters of the Black Sea, far to the south.

In return, Rosneft will get a chance to take part in Exxon’s operations in the Gulf of Mexico and Texas. The two companies said they also will pursue joint ventures in third countries.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/industries/russias-state-run-rosneft-teams-up-with-exxonmobil-to-develop-arctic-oil-fields/2011/08/30/gIQAo8kbpJ_story.html?hpid=z4

It’s pretty sad when the US government won’t let our own waters so instead we have to go into partnerships do it in Russian waters.

Who are the Fascists here?

Just how dumb is unite against fascism? HAVING LOBBIED THE GOVERNMENT MANY TIMES IN RECENT MONTHS TO BAN MARCHES BY THE ENGLISH DEFENCE LEAGUE, IT IS NOW OUTRAGED THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT ONLY TAKEN UP THIS OFFER TO SQUISH THE EDL BUT HAS PUSHED IT FURTHER, BY BANNING ALL PUBLIC PROTESTS IN FIVE LONDON BOROUGHS FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS. That means both the Right-wing EDL and the lefties at UAF – and anyone else with a political gripe – are forbidden from marching in Tower Hamlets, Newham, Hackney, Islington and Waltham Forest any time in September. “This is a huge attack on everyone’s civil liberties”, bleats UAF, which is weird, considering that they’re the ones who invited the Government to undermine people’s civil liberties in the first place….

…Now, UAF has issued what must rank as ONE OF THE SILLIEST POLITICAL STATEMENTS OF THE YEAR so far. “We the undersigned welcome the banning of the racist English Defence League’s march through Tower Hamlets,” it says. “But WE ARE APPALLED TO DISCOVER THAT THE METROPOLITAN POLICE ARE APPLYING FOR A BLANKET BAN ON ALL MARCHES ACROSS FIVE LONDON BOROUGHS… IT IS OUR HUMAN RIGHT TO PEACEFULLY MARCH IN TOWER HAMLETs.”

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/brendanoneill2/100102396/in-finding-itself-banned-unite-against-fascism-has-fallen-victim-to-its-own-brand-of-boneheaded-illiberalism/

This reminds me of how the left went on about civility after the Gabriel Giffords shooting only to find themselves denouncing the TEA Party as terrorist and comparing them to suicide bombers just six months later. Irony doesn’t seem to be their strong suit.

Green vs. Tea, Round 1: Party Battle Napa

Here’s an interesting photo essay about a planned Tea Party rally and the counter protest by the Green Party and Unions.

CNN MAKES NO ESTIMATE OF THE TEA PARTY CROWD, but says there were only “several dozen” counter-protesters, which seems far more accurate than the “Patch” article linked above.

AP GIVE A GENEROUS 100 ESTIMATE FOR THE COUNTER-PROTESTERS, BUT LIMITS THE TEA PARTIERS TO “SEVERAL HUNDRED.”

The S.F. Chronicle guesstimated “dozens” of counter-protesters and “hundreds” of Tea Partiers, which is probably the closest to being accurate.

MY ESTIMATE? ABOUT 90 COUNTER-PROTESTERS (HALF OF THEM GREEN PARTIERS, THE OTHER HALF UNION MEMBERS), AND ABOUT 2,000 TEA PARTIERS. (Any evidence either way is welcomed in the comments section.) And since I hate the whole crowd-estimation numbers game, and am only doing this because of the media misreporting, that’s the last time I’ll mention it!

http://pajamasmedia.com/zombie/2011/08/30/green-vs-tea-round-1-party-battle-napa/

This is a fun photo essay. It makes a point about the liberal media misrepresenting what is going on. I especially enjoyed the charges made at the counter protest vs the changes made by the TEA Party.