Thursday, July 19, 2012

Polls, polls, and more polls

AAA Truth outsourced
 What’s New Today
Story #1 is about a new poll from CBS/NYT that has Romney ahead officially by 1 point but looking at the demographics reveals something different.  #2 looks at the polling in Michigan which Obama won by 16 point in 2008.  Things have changed.  #3 has a poll from VA which appears to be accurate.  Obama and Romney are tied.  #4 is one man’s 102 reasons Obama will lose in November. 

Today’s Thoughts

Occupy Unmasked is a new movie coming out later this summer. According to sources middle-class audiences are shocked” when the see the violence that actually occurred. 

Obama’s recent move on immigration isn’t playing out as well as he hoped.  It seems in New Mexico (Democrat registration +16) his lead is down to +4% in the Democratic PPP poll.

Steny Hoyer -- "If you talk to economists, they will tell you there are two things that are the most stimulative that you can do -- one’s unemployment insurance, the other’s food stamps, okay?”  Perhaps this is why Obama is advertising food stamps on TV.  He’s trying to stimulate the economy. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 83% of American Adults favor a work requirement as a condition for receiving welfare aid. Just seven percent (7%) oppose such a requirement.  The rest are undecided.

1.  CBS/NYT Poll has Romney ahead by 1

The presidential race is a dead heat, according to the newly released CBS/NYT poll.  And for all the attention being paid to the attacks on Mitt Romney's record at Bain Capital and, more subtly, his wealth, the economy still appears to be the overriding factor.

President Barack Obama trails Mitt Romney, 47 percent to 46 percent. 

After weeks of bad news for the presumptive Republican nominee, the poll result would seem to be unexpectedly tight. And the most logical explanation for why Obama has failed to open up a national lead seems to rest on the economic polling data.

Romney leads Obama among respondents by a margin of 49 percent to 41 percent on who can best handle the economy and jobs. People who think the economy is getting better dropped from 33 percent in April to 24 percent now -- owed largely to a series of bad jobs reports.

Obama is perceived as the candidate who can best help the middle class, with 52 percent citing the president on that question, including 15 percent of Republicans. But even then, he gets a heaping of blame for not turning the economy around. Almost two-thirds of respondents said the president's policies contributed to the economic downturn. Only 17 percent of respondents said the president's policies on the economy were "improving it now." …

I keep telling you to always check the demographics.  It is sometimes hard to find, but most polls will give it to you.  Even though Romney lead in this poll the Huffington Post seems surprised that the poll came out this way.  They found Romney had weeks of bad news.  I guess they were hoping no one noticed how bad the economy was doing.  But the demographics show that it is worse than you think for Obama.  The party identification for this poll included 29.2% Republicans, 32.1 % Democrats and 38.7% Independents giving the Democrats almost a 3% lead over Republicans.  But they weighted the numbers so that for this poll results is was 26.5% Republicans, 32.7% Democrats and 40.8% Independents or 6.2% lead for the Democrats over the Republicans.  This means Romney is probably around 7% ahead right now.  

If you want to check the poll demographics for yourself go to the end of the polls at this link 

2.  Obama stalls in Michigan

DETROIT – President Obama has told Michigan voters that his decision to use $85 billion in federal loans to bail out General Motors and Chrysler saved over a million manufacturing jobs in the Midwest, created 128,000 new jobs and helped rejuvenate the Wolverine State’s long-troubled economy.

His campaign stresses that the president was willing to step in to restructure two of the Big Three automakers with direct federal assistance, while Republican challenger Mitt Romney would have let the industry undergo a “managed bankruptcy” with no guarantee the companies could have found private financing. “People remember his position, which was, ‘Let’s let Detroit go bankrupt’ and his opposition to government involvement in making sure that GM and Chrysler didn’t go under,” Obama said of Romney in an interview with ABC News this spring.

But with Obama now locked in an increasingly tough reelection battle, some of his allies are cautioning that the auto industry bailout alone won’t put Obama over the top in Michigan, a key battleground state that he carried by 16 percentage points in 2008 but that is now up for grabs…

… The tight battle in Michigan between Obama and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and head of Bain Capital, largely mirrors the contest nationally, with the two opponents in a virtual dead heat. A recent EPIC-MRA poll of likely Michigan voters showed Romney with a slender lead over Obama, 46 percent to 45 percent.  
An April poll by the same Lansing-based firm showed Obama ahead by four percentage points….

The big number to look at here is how Obama won Michigan by 16 points but in this poll is 1 point behind.   Michigan is a Democratic state so as his fortune fall here; it shows Obama fortunes have fallen everywhere. 

3.  Virginia tied according to Quinnipiac

Republican challenger Mitt Romney wipes out President Barack Obama's lead in Virginia and the two candidates are deadlocked 44 - 44 percent in the race for the Old Dominion's 13 electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 42 percent lead for President Obama in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 47 - 42 percent Obama lead June 7.

In the state's hotly-contested U.S. Senate race Republican George Allen has 46 percent to 44 percent for Democrat Tim Kaine.

By a narrow 47 - 44 percent, voters say Romney would do a better job on the economy. But voters support 59 - 36 percent Obama's call to raise income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year. Support is strong among all income groups - except voters in households making more than $250,000 per year, where 48 percent support the idea and 51 percent oppose it.

In the presidential race, Romney takes Republicans 91 - 4 percent while Obama takes Democrats 92 - 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for Obama and 38 percent for Romney. The president leads 46 - 41 percent among women while Romney wins with men 46 - 42 percent. White voters go to Romney 55 - 33 percent while black voters back Obama 88 - 1 percent.

"Virginia voters are sharply split along gender and political lines about the presidential race. The two candidates equally hold their own political bases and are splitting the key independent vote down the middle," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Looking at the demographics there are 39% Republicans and 36% Democrats in VA.  This poll weighted them both at 28% with the rest going to independents.  Looking at those numbers it is easy to see why it would be tied 44-44.  What I did find funny in the poll was that most voters by a wide margin thought people making more than $250,000 per year should pay more.  The one  exception was people making more than $250,000 per year didn’t agree with this. 

4.  101 Reasons Obama will lose the election

Here’s an interesting look at why Obama will lose.  He leaves for the very end the 102nd reason which tops all the other ones—election are won or lost on economics.  If you read history you know that to be a fact. 

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