Current Status of the Election

Things are getting rough if you are a Democrat

What happens when the prey don’t take the bait?

David Gregory on Sunday asked what he must have thought was a loaded question concerning alleged racism in the Tea Party.


LIKELY MUCH TO HIS SURPRISE, BOTH HIS REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT guests on "meet the press" said THEY HADN'T SEEN ANY EVIDENCE OF THAT.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2010/10/17/dem-senator-destroys-david-gregorys-case-about-racism-tea-party#ixzz12i9YIYwq

Although the TEA Party is not a democrat constituency any intelligent person will refrain from antagonizing it. Why make them more enthusiastic to vote you out of office.

Scorecard for coming election

Note: Democrat advantages are in blue. Republican advantages are in red.

Here’s a scorecard. Those in my party may want to avert their gaze – the numbers here are grimmer for Democrats today than in 1994.


For those keeping score at home, each measure has a grade – “R” if 2010 is better for Republicans than 1994, and “D” if 2010 is better for Democrats than 1994. Those where there is just a small difference is noted as an “E.”


Structural political factors: These are the factors that, at the start of any election cycle, help set expectations by providing a sense of the overall playing field.


(D) Democratic Senate seats defended: 1994: 22. 2010: 19


(E) Open Democratic Senate seats: 1994: 6. 2010: 7.


(D) Open Democratic House Seats: 1994: 31. 2010: 19.


Overall evaluation: Advantage to Democrats compared to 1994.


Structural Economic factors: In most models of vote choice, the economy is the driving force. It is almost impossible to overstate the dangers Democrats face here.


(R) Unemployment rate: 1994: 6.0 percent. 2010 9.6 percent.


(R) 2nd Quarter gross domestic product: 1994: 5.6 percent. 2010: 1.7 percent.


(R) Jobs created, election year through September: 1994: 3,154,000. 2010: 613,000.

 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43729.html#ixzz12iAggWuh


GOP Holds Solid Leads in Voter Preferences for Another Week

Here is what a wave looks like.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's tracking of the generic ballot for Congress finds REPUBLICANS LEADING DEMOCRATS BY 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, 48% TO 43%, AND BY 11- AND 17-POINT MARGINS AMONG LIKELY VOTERS, depending on turnout. This is the third consecutive week the Republicans have led on the measure among registered voters, after two weeks in September when the parties were about tied.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143777/GOP-Holds-Solid-Leads-Voter-Preferences-Week.aspx

A sporting incumbent

Here’s an interesting blog about a Massachusetts State Senator, Karen Spilka, who has sent a mailing from “Candidate for State Senate Karen Spilka.”

In this mailing, paid for by the SEIU, this “candidate” says THAT “WHEN SHE TAKES OFFICE,” SPILKA WILL DO ALL SORTS OF FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE THINGS and bring change to the Massachusetts legislature. Does this sound like a Democrat who’s running on her record or away from her record?


"We're running as if we're running for the first time," Vaughn said. "We don't want to coast in on incumbency, we want to get out there and show people Karen's record."


“Doesn’t want to coast,” yeah, that’s the ticket! Why she’s just leaving out the fact that she’s an incumbent Democrat to help out her opponent, Ed McGrath. How sporting of her! Jolly good show.

Democrats Didn't Prepare for a Year Like This

Are the Democrats prepared for this election?

If you were to enter a time machine, travel back to February of this year, and ask Democrats why this year wouldn't be like 1994, you would have heard an awful lot along the lines of "THIS YEAR WE SEE IT COMING." Democrats felt that the fact that they could supposedly see the wave coming, unlike 1994 when it crested late, gave them an opportunity to right the ship, define their opponents, and maintain their hold on the House.

And, in fact, DEMOCRATS DID PREPARE BEAUTIFULLY FOR A YEAR LIKE 1994. The problem is that the Democratic leadership was like the clichéd general fighting the last war. The terrain THIS CYCLE IS MUCH MORE PERILOUS FOR DEMOCRATS THAN 1994 EVER WAS. While the techniques that might have saved a Democratic majority in 1994 will save seats this cycle, they are simply insufficient to save a House majority this time around.

There are three "big" factors that determine the course of midterm elections: THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY, THE POPULARITY OF THE PRESIDENT'S AGENDA, AND THE NUMBER OF SEATS THAT THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY CONTROLS IN THE HOUSE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/10/18/democrats_didnt_prepare_for_a_year_like_this_107610.html


Geezers who vote

While Obama is out on college campuses wooing the votes of youthful voters, it appears he is targeting the wrong demographic group. Of course with is healthcare robbing Medicare, he probably wouldn’t do well with seniors no matter what.

The senior vote has been relatively stable in recent midterms. They are about one in five voters. This year however, seniors constitute a larger share of the likely 2010 electorate, seen in Gallup data, than in any midterm since 1994 (though 2002 nearly matches). EIGHT IN 10 SENIORS SAY THEY ARE "CERTAIN" TO VOTE THIS YEAR, according to ABC News/Washington Post polling. THAT'S 11 POINTS ABOVE SENIORS STANDING IN ITS 2006 SURVEY.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/10/18/the_senior_wave_older_voters_set_for_historic_turnout_107608.html
http://michaelgraham.com/archives/in-ma-liberal-dems-don-rsquo-t-want-to-ldquo-coast-in-on-incumbency-rdquo/